Confidence regions for multidimensional scaling analysis

Techniques are developed for surrounding each of the points in a multidimensional scaling solution with a region which will contain the population point with some level of confidence. Bayesian credibility regions are also discussed. A general theorem is proven which describes the asymptotic distribution of maximum likelihood estimates subject to identifiability constraints. This theorem is applied to a number of models to display asymptotic variance-covariance matrices for coordinate estimates under different rotational constraints. A technique is described for displaying Bayesian conditional credibility regions for any sample size.The research reported here was supported by grant number APA 320 to the author by the National Research Council of Canada.     

Indistinguishability tests in the actor–partner interdependence model

When considering dyadic data, one of the questions is whether the roles of the two dyad members can be considered equal. This question may be answered empirically using indistinguishability tests in the actor–partner interdependence model. In this paper several issues related to such indistinguishability tests are discussed: the difference between maximum likelihood and restricted maximum likelihood based tests for equality in variance parameters; the choice between the structural equation modelling and multilevel modelling framework; and the use of sequential testing rather than one global test for a set of indistinguishability tests. Based on simulation studies, we provide guidelines for best practice. All different types of tests are illustrated with cross-sectional and longitudinal data, and corroborated with corresponding R code.     

On muthén’s maximum likelihood for two-level covariance structure models

Data in social and behavioral sciences are often hierarchically organized. Special statistical procedures that take into account the dependence of such observations have been developed. Among procedures for 2-level covariance structure analysis, Muthén’s maximum likelihood (MUML) has the advantage of easier computation and faster convergence. When data are balanced, MUML is equivalent to the maximum likelihood procedure. Simulation results in the literature endorse the MUML procedure also for unbalanced data. This paper studies the analytical properties of the MUML procedure in general. The results indicate that the MUML procedure leads to correct model inference asymptotically when level-2 sample size goes to infinity and the coefficient of variation of the level-1 sample sizes goes to zero. The study clearly identifies the impact of level-1 and level-2 sample sizes on the standard errors and test statistic of the MUML procedure. Analytical results explain previous simulation results and will guide the design or data collection for the future applications of MUML.This research was supported by NSF Grant DMS04-37167.We thank Dr.Bengt Muthén for providing key references. We are also grateful to three expert reviewers for their constructive comments that have led the paper to an improvement over the previous version.This revised article was published online in August 2005 with the PDF paginated correctly.     

A tribute to Howard Rachlin and his two-parameter discounting model: Reliable and flexible model fitting

Delay discounting reflects the rate at which a reward loses its subjective value as a function of delay to that reward. Many models have been proposed to measure delay discounting, and many comparisons have been made among these models. We highlight the two-parameter delay discounting model popularized by Howard Rachlin by demonstrating two key practical features of the Rachlin model. The first feature is flexibility; the Rachlin model fits empirical discounting data closely. Second, when compared with other available two-parameter discounting models, the Rachlin model has the advantage that unique best estimates for parameters are easy to obtain across a wide variety of potential discounting patterns. We focus this work on this second feature in the context of maximum likelihood, showing the relative ease with which the Rachlin model can be utilized compared with the extreme care that must be used with other models for discounting data, focusing on two illustrative cases that pass checks for data validity. Both of these features are demonstrated via a reanalysis of discounting data the authors have previously used for model selection purposes.     

Multidimensional unfolding analyses of ranking data for groups

One probabilistic version of Coombs' unfolding model called the MMUR (Marginalization model for the Multidimensional Unfolding analysis of Ranking data) is extended to treat ranking data for groups. One favorable feature of the model is that it can both take into consideration individual differences without estimating the subject parameters and capture the differences between the groups in a systematic manner. Another advantage lies in the fact that one can see the group differences in the geometrical point configuration, since the model shows how the ideal points of the groups differ from each other in space. Four applications are provided which demonstrate that the model is useful for clarifying systematic differences in this type of data.     

Covariance structure analysis of ordinal ipsative data

Data are ipsative if they are subject to a constant-sum constraint for each individual. In the present study, ordinal ipsative data (OID) are defined as the ordinal rankings across a vector of variables. It is assumed that OID are the manifestations of their underlying nonipsative vector y, which are difficult to observe directly. A two-stage estimation procedure is suggested for the analysis of structural equation models with OID. In the first stage, the partition maximum likelihood (PML) method and the generalized least squares (GLS) method are proposed for estimating the means and the covariance matrix of A_cy, where A_c is a known contrast matrix. Based on the joint asymptotic distribution of the first stage estimator and an appropriate weight matrix, the generalized least squares method is used to estimate the structural parameters in the second stage. A goodness-of-fit statistic is given for testing the hypothesized covariance structure. Simulation results show that the proposed method works properly when a sufficiently large sample is available.This research was supported by National Institute on Drug Abuse Grants DA01070 and DA10017. The authors are indebted to Dr. Lee Cooper, Dr. Eric Holman, Dr. Thomas Wickens for their valuable suggestions on this study, and Dr. Fanny Cheung for allowing us to use her CPAI data set in this article. The authors would also like to acknowledge the helpful comments from the editor and the two anonymous reviewers.     

Marginal maximum likelihood estimation for a psychometric model of discontinuous development

Item response theory models posit latent variables to account for regularities in students' performances on test items. Wilson's “Saltus” model extends the ideas of IRT to development that occurs in stages, where expected changes can be discontinuous, show different patterns for different types of items, or even exhibit reversals in probabilities of success on certain tasks. Examples include Piagetian stages of psychological development and Siegler's rule-based learning. This paper derives marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation equations for the structural parameters of the Saltus model and suggests a computing approximation based on the EM algorithm. For individual examinees, empirical Bayes probabilities of learning-stage are given, along with proficiency parameter estimates conditional on stage membership. The MML solution is illustrated with simulated data and an example from the domain of mixed number subtraction. The authors' names appear in alphabetical order. We would like to thank Karen Draney for computer programming, Kikumi Tatsuoka for allowing us to use the mixed-number subtraction data, and Eric Bradlow, Chan Dayton, Kikumi Tatsuoka, and four anonymous referees for helpful suggestions. The first author's work was supported by Contract No. N00014-88-K-0304, R&T 4421552, from the Cognitive Sciences Program, Cognitive and Neural Sciences Division, Office of Naval Research, and by the Program Research Planning Council of Educational Testing Service. The second author's work was supported by a National Academy of Education Spencer Fellowship and by a Junior Faculty Research Grant from the Committee on Research, University of California at Berkeley. A copy of the Saltus computer program can be obtained from the second author.     

A parametric procedure for ultrametric tree estimation from conditional rank order proximity data

The psychometric and classification literatures have illustrated the fact that a wide class of discrete or network models (e.g., hierarchical or ultrametric trees) for the analysis of ordinal proximity data are plagued by potential degenerate solutions if estimated using traditional nonmetric procedures (i.e., procedures which optimize a STRESS-based criteria of fit and whose solutions are invariant under a monotone transformation of the input data). This paper proposes a new parametric, maximum likelihood based procedure for estimating ultrametric trees for the analysis of conditional rank order proximity data. We present the technical aspects of the model and the estimation algorithm. Some preliminary Monte Carlo results are discussed. A consumer psychology application is provided examining the similarity of fifteen types of snack/breakfast items. Finally, some directions for future research are provided.