情感计算技术如何推动犯罪风险评估工具的发展？

摘 要 随着近年来人工智能深度学习技术的发展,情感计算与人格计算技术日渐成熟,在许多实际应用场景中取得了良好的表现,当前人工智能情感计算技术应用于犯罪风险评估领域,能够有效解决目前主流的风险评估工具难以解决的个体内差异性的预测因子评估问题以及被测评参与者因社会赞许性而导致结果失真的问题。本文在详细阐述目前主流评估工具的局限性基础上,详细阐述了以情感计算技术为支撑的动态风险评估工具的设计思路、目前已有的技术方案以及设计细节的理论依据,在此基础上最后提出以人工智能技术为支撑的新型评估工具的未来发展方向。     

Effects of prior agonistic experience on risk assessment and approach behavior evoked by familiar or unfamiliar conspecific odors

Risk assessment and appetitive behaviors in response to familiar and unfamiliar conspecific odors were measured in mice rendered dominant or subordinate by a series of resident-intruder encounters. Subordinate mice showed elevated levels of risk assessment in response to the odors of both familiar dominant and unfamiliar males. These behaviors were almost totally absent among dominant males exposed to familiar subordinate or unfamiliar male odors. Subordinate mice showed a marginally significant elevation in latencies to approach familiar, but not unfamiliar, dominant odors. Dominant and subordinate mice spent comparable amounts of time in the cage area containing familiar antagonist odors, however, and the durations of subordinates were mildly elevated, rather than decreased, when unfamiliar conspecific odors were present. There were no group differences in any of the appetitive behaviors. These findings suggest that apparent preferences for conspecific odors may arise from quantitatively and/or qualitatively differing emotional states. The inclusion of risk assessment measures is suggested to be a useful adjunct for studies of olfactory preference/rejection. © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Belief in a Just World and Employee Voice Behavior: The Mediating Roles of Perceived Efficacy and Risk

Abstract

In this research, we hypothesized that employees’ belief in a just world (BJW) would be positively related to their voice behavior, i.e., the expression of ideas or opinions with the intention of engendering organizational improvement or change, and that this relation would be mediated by perceived voice efficacy and perceived voice risk. To test these hypotheses, we collected self-reported data from employees in two different countries: China (N?=?313) and Germany (N?=?190). The results revealed a positive association between BJW and employee voice behavior in both samples. The two-mediator model was confirmed in the Chinese sample, while only perceived voice efficacy played a mediating role in the German sample. Possible reasons for these differences may be related to differences in cultural dimensions and education levels between the samples. The findings emphasize the importance of bolstering employees’ belief in justice and the organizational climate, which influence perceived voice efficacy and risk, as means to increase organizational voice behavior.     

外观新颖性对消费者购买意愿的影响：自我建构与产品类型的调节效应

外观创新在市场竞争中的地位越来越突出,然而因此而导致的成败案例都很普遍。如何进行外观创新更受消费者欢迎,其内在机制是什么,我们却知之甚少。基于独特性需求理论、风险感知理论及自我建构理论,本文探讨了自我建构与外观新颖性对消费者购买意愿的交互作用、影响机制以及边界条件。通过3个实验,发现对于独立型自我建构的消费者而言,高外观新颖性能引发独特性需求从而提高购买意愿,而对于相依型自我建构而言,低外观新颖性则通过降低社会风险感知从而提高购买意愿;同时,本文也确定了产品类型对该机制的调节作用,具体来讲,对于实用品,所有消费者都对低外观新颖性产品具有更强的购买意愿,而对于享乐品,所有消费者都对高外观新颖性产品具有更强的购买意愿。     

Decision-makers use social information to update their preferences but choose for others as they do for themselves

People's risky decisions are susceptible to the social context in which they take place. Across three experiments using different paradigms, we investigated the influence of three social factors upon participants' decisions: the recipient of the decision-making outcome (self, other, or joint), the nature of the relationship with the other agent (friend, stranger, or teammate), and the type of information that participants received about others' preferences: none at all, general information about how previous participants had decided, or information about a specific partner's preference. We found that participants' decisions about risk did not differ according to whether the outcome at stake was their own, another agent's, or a joint outcome, nor according to the type of information available. Participants did, however, adjust their preferences for risky options in light of social information.     

Perception of unsafe driving behaviour and reported driving behaviour among commercial motorcyclists in Dar es Salaam,Tanzania

Commercial motorcycle drivers are recognised to take high risks while driving, but little is known about their perception of these risks. This paper presents the results of a survey of 400 commercial motorcyclists' perception of unsafe driving behaviours and then determine the association between the perception of unsafe driving behaviour and reported driving behaviour. The study was carried out in Dar es Salaam between December 8th 2018 and March 24th 2019. Drivers aged 18 years and above were selected from 90 parking stages within the city and completed a structured interview. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate the prevalence ratios (PRs). We found that close to 60% of drivers considered unsafe driving to be unsafe. However, reported unsafe driving behaviour was moderately common. Our results showed that reported unsafe driving behaviour (adjusted PR = 1.7; 95% CI 1.3–2.2) was associated with a low perception of the dangers of unsafe driving among motorcyclists. The higher the earnings a driver had (adjusted PR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.2–2.0), the higher the likelihood of having a low perceived risk of unsafe behaviour. These findings suggest that commercial motorcyclists' unsafe behaviour are, for the most part, not the result of a poor perception of the involved risks.     

医疗信息的风险感知

从信息加工视角探究个体对医疗信息的风险感知过程, 通过医疗信息来源、医疗信息内容与呈现形式和信息加工主体三个方面归纳其影响因素, 并基于经验-分析式加工理论和字面-要义加工理论探讨医疗信息风险感知的认知机制。今后研究可更注重医疗信息风险感知的通用研究与特殊主题研究的平衡、风险感知测量工具的规范性与特异性的结合, 并立足于中国医疗体系建立具有循证依据的预防措施和配套政策。     

Use of the Beck Scale for suicide ideation with psychiatric inpatients diagnosed with schizophrenia,schizoaffective, or bipolar disorders

To ascertain how useful the Beck Scale for Suicide Ideation (BSI; Beck & Steer, Manual for Beck Scale for Suicide Ideation (1991)) would be for assessing the severity of suicidal ideation in patients who were diagnosed with schizophrenia, schizoaffective, or bipolar disorders, 142 inpatients were asked to complete the BSI. Eight (6%) patients refused, and four patients (3%) were unable to complete the BSI because they were unable to concentrate. Of the 130 patients who completed the BSI, 53 (41%) had schizoaffective, 37 (28%) had paranoid schizophrenia, 30 (23%) had manic bipolar, and 10 (8%) had depressed bipolar disorders. The coefficient alpha for the BSI was .96, and its one-week test-retest reliability for a subsample of 15 inpatients was 0.88, p < 0.001. The BSI total scores were positively correlated with having ever attempted suicide, r = 0.46, p < 0.001. According to the BSI, 36 (28%) patients were classified as current suicide ideators. The results were discussed as supporting the use of the BSI with inpatients who are diagnosed with schizophrenia, schizoaffective, or bipolar disorders.     

Interparental conflict and risk behaviors among Mexican American adolescents: a cognitive-emotional model

This study used a cognitive-emotional model to examine the relations between multiple dimensions of interparental conflict and health risk behaviors among young adolescents. Participants were 151 Mexican American adolescents and their parents. At initial individual interviews, parents reported on conflict with their spouses, and adolescents reported on their parents' conflict, their appraisals of the conflict, their emotional distress, and their acculturation level. At 6-month follow-ups, adolescents reported on their risk behaviors, including substance use and sexual activity. In general, adolescents' acculturation level was not related to their risk behaviors. More frequent conflict, more conflict about the adolescent, more adolescent involvement in the conflict, and poor conflict resolution were related to greater emotional distress. More conflict about the adolescent, mothers being more demanding/dominating during conflict, and more adolescent involvement in the conflict were related to greater risk behaviors. Adolescents' cognitions mediated the link between two dimensions of parental conflict, frequency and resolution, and emotional distress. Adolescents' emotional distress mediated the association between adolescent involvement in parental conflict and adolescents' risk behaviors.     

Dimensions of Early Childhood Behavior Problems: Stability and Predictors of Change from 18 to 30 Months

The prevalence, structure, stability, and predictors of change in early behavior problems were examined in a population-based sample of Norwegian children at 18 and 30 months of age (N = 750). A clear factor structure involving four dimensions emerged at both assessment times: Two factors were characterized by externalizing behaviors and were labeled Social Adjustment and Overactive-Inattentive; one factor tapped internalizing problems and was labeled Emotional Adjustment; and the fourth, related to general immaturity, was labeled Regulation. Specific patterns of child and family risk factors were associated with stability and change over the two time points for each factor. Children with stable problems had the most problematic characteristics on all significant predictors, followed by children with problems at one, but not both, time points. The data suggest that it is possible to identify risk factors for stable problems at 18 months, allowing some prediction of those children whose problems will persist over early childhood. Since specific risk factors emerged for specific types of behavior problems, the results may provide some much-needed guidance to early intervention efforts.