Naive Probability: Model‐Based Estimates of Unique Events

We describe a dual‐process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non‐numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non‐numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A and B), disjunctions: P(A), P(B), P(A or B or both), and conditional probabilities P(A), P(B), P(B|A). They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning.     

Metacognitive sensitivity of subjective reports of decisional confidence and visual experience

Previous studies provided contradicting results regarding metacognitive sensitivity estimated from subjective reports of confidence in comparison to subjective reports of visual experience. We investigated whether this effect of content of subjective reports is influenced by the statistical method to quantify metacognitive sensitivity. Comparing logistic regression and meta-d in a masked orientation task, a masked shape task, and a random-dot motion task, we observed metacognitive sensitivity of reports regarding decisional confidence was greater than of reports about visual experience irrespective of mathematical procedures. However, the relationship between subjective reports and the logistic transform of accuracy was often not linear, implying that logistic regression is not a consistent measure of metacognitive sensitivity. We argue that a science of consciousness would benefit from the assessment of both visual experience and decisional confidence, and recommend meta-d as measure of metacognitive sensitivity for future studies.     

Ignition’s glow: Ultra-fast spread of global cortical activity accompanying local “ignitions” in visual cortex during conscious visual perception

Despite extensive research, the spatiotemporal span of neuronal activations associated with the emergence of a conscious percept is still debated. The debate can be formulated in the context of local vs. global models, emphasizing local activity in visual cortex vs. a global fronto-parietal “workspace” as the key mechanisms of conscious visual perception. These alternative models lead to differential predictions with regard to the precise magnitude, timing and anatomical spread of neuronal activity during conscious perception. Here we aimed to test a specific aspect of these predictions in which local and global models appear to differ – namely the extent to which fronto-parietal regions modulate their activity during task performance under similar perceptual states. So far the main experimental results relevant to this debate have been obtained from non-invasive methods and led to conflicting interpretations. Here we examined these alternative predictions through large-scale intracranial measurements (Electrocorticogram – ECoG) in 43 patients and 4445 recording sites. Both ERP and broadband high frequency (50–150 Hz – BHF) responses were examined through the entire cortex during a simple 1-back visual recognition memory task. Our results reveal short latency intense visual responses, localized first in early visual cortex followed (at ∼200 ms) by higher order visual areas, but failed to show significant delayed (300 ms) visual activations. By contrast, oddball image repeat events, linked to overt motor responses, were associated with a significant increase in a delayed (300 ms) peak of BHF power in fronto-parietal cortex. Comparing BHF responses with ERP revealed an additional peak in the ERP response – having a similar latency to the well-studied P3 scalp EEG response. Posterior and temporal regions demonstrated robust visual category selectivity. An unexpected observation was that high-order visual cortex responses were essentially concurrent (at ∼200 ms) with an ultra-fast spread of signals of lower magnitude that invaded selected sites throughout fronto-parietal cortical areas. Our results are compatible with local models in demonstrating a clear task-dependence of the 300 ms fronto-parietal activation. However, they also reveal a more global component of low-magnitude and poor content selectivity that rapidly spreads into fronto-parietal sites. The precise functional role of this global “glow” remains to be elucidated.     

Do We Know Where We Stand? Neighborhood Relative Income,Subjective Social Status,and Health

Bridging research on relative income and subjective social status (SSS), this study examines how neighborhood relative income is related to ones' SSS, and in turn, physical and mental health. Using a survey sample of 1807 U.S. adults, we find that neighborhood median income significantly moderates the relationship between household income and self‐reported physical and mental health. Low‐income individuals living in high‐income neighborhoods (i.e., relative disadvantage) report better physical and mental health than low‐income individuals living in low‐income neighborhoods. In addition, high‐income individuals living in low‐income neighborhoods (i.e., relative advantage) report higher SSS (relative to neighbors), whereas low‐income individuals living in high‐income neighborhoods (i.e., relative disadvantage) also report higher SSS. We draw from social comparison theory to interpret these results positing that downward comparisons may serve an evaluative function while upward comparisons may result in affiliation with better‐off others. Finally, we demonstrate that SSS explains the relationship between neighborhood relative income and health outcomes, providing empirical support for the underlying influence of perceived social position.     

The psychological nature of subjective memory complaint in non-demented older adults: The respective predictive values of psycho-affective,lifestyle, and cognitive inhibition variables

Introduction/ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to investigate, using path analysis (Lisrel 8.52), the relationships between subjective memory complaint and cognitive inhibition, lifestyle, and psycho-affective variables on a sample of non-demented older adults.MethodOur sample was composed of 109 older adults, who were required to undertake two cognitive inhibition tasks (stroop and verbal fluency) and to respond to scales designed to measure individuals’ psycho-affective status (depression/subjective health) and subjective memory complaint level (Mac Nair). Lifestyle predictors (education and activity levels) were also assessed.Results/ConclusionThis study highlights the importance of adopting a multifactorial approach to the study of subjective memory complaint. In addition to executive variables (verbal fluency task), predictors such as subjective health and activity levels seem to be crucial in our understanding of the psychological nature of subjective memory complaint.     

God’s Faithfulness and Dementia: Christian Theology in Context

Christian theology concerns the practical, contextual realities of life in the church and the world. What does this mean for a person with dementia? While much dementia care focuses on deficits, this article promotes a different starting point: God’s faithfulness rather than our forgetfulness. Using case studies from residential aged care, opportunities for meaningful pastoral care are explored, inviting us to see in the person with dementia a deep connection with ourselves. Drawn from a theological understanding of God as three persons—Father, Son and Holy Spirit—“person-centered care” invites us into relationships of mutuality and reciprocity not dependent on words. Pastoral care of families is manifest through personal relationships where all aspects of dementia, including death and dying, can be discussed openly. Grounded in God’s faithfulness, the first and final word is love. Hope lies in the belief that we have already been found. We are blessed by the grace of God, called into community where the insightful and the forgetful flourish together.     

The moderating role of objective and subjective numeracy in attribute framing

Previous research has found that objective numeracy moderates framing effects: People who are less numerate were found to be more susceptible to goal‐framing and attribute‐framing effects than people who are highly numerate. This study examined the possibility that subjective numeracy likewise moderates attribute framing in contexts where participants are presented with percentages of success or failure. The results show that compared with highly numerate participants, less numerate participants were more susceptible to the effect of attribute framing. Interestingly, this moderating effect was revealed only when using objective numeracy measures, and not when subjective numeracy measures were used. Future research is suggested to replicate these findings, to establish the generalizability of numeracy as a moderator of other cognitive biases, and to examine several possible theoretical explanations for the differential moderation of attribute‐framing bias.     

Happier together. Social cohesion and subjective well‐being in Europe

Despite mushrooming research on “social” determinants of subjective well‐being (SWB), little is known as to whether social cohesion as a collective property is among the key societal conditions for human happiness. This article fills this gap in investigating the importance of living in a cohesive society for citizens' SWB. For 27 European Union countries, it combines the newly developed Bertelsmann Foundation's Cohesion Index with individual well‐being data on life evaluation and psychological functioning as surveyed in the recent European Quality of Life Survey. The main results from multi‐level analyses are as follows. First, Europeans are indeed happier and psychologically healthier in more cohesive societies. Second, all three core domains of cohesion increase individuals' SWB. Third, citizens in the more affluent part of Europe feel the positivity of social cohesion more consistently than those in the less affluent part. Finally, within countries, cohesion is good for the SWB of resource‐rich and resource‐poor groups alike. Our findings also shed new light on the ongoing debate on economic progress and quality of life: what makes citizenries of affluent societies happier is, in the first place, their capacity to create togetherness and solidarity among their members—in other words, cohesion.     

Measuring drivers’ takeover performance in varying levels of automation: Considering the influence of cognitive secondary task

Mixed control by driver and automated system will remain in use for decades until fully automated driving is perfected. Thus, drivers must be able to accurately regain control of vehicles in a timely manner when the automated system sends a takeover request (TOR) at its limitation. Therefore, determining the factors that affect drivers’ takeover quality at varying levels of automated driving is important. Previous studies have shown that visually distracting secondary tasks impair drivers’ takeover performance and increase the subjective workload. However, the influence of purely cognitive distracting secondary tasks on drivers’ takeover performance and how this influence varies at different levels of automation are still unknown. Hence, a 5 (driving modes) × 3 (cognitive secondary tasks) factorial design with the within-subject factors was adopted for this driving simulator experiment. The sample consisted of 21 participants. The participants’ subjective workloads were recorded by the NASA-Task Load Index (NASA-TLX). Results showed that compared to manual driving conditions, the drivers’ subjective workloads were significantly reduced in both partially and highly automated driving conditions, even with a TOR, confirming the benefit of the automated driving system in terms of reducing the driving workload. Moreover, the drivers exhibited a lower takeover behavior quality at high levels of automation than manual driving in terms of increased reaction time, abnormal performance, standard deviation of lane position, lane departure probability, and reduced minimum of time to collision. However, at the highly automated driving condition, the drivers’ longitudinal driving safety and ability to follow instructions improved when performing a highly cognitive secondary task. This phenomenon possibly occurred because automated driving conditions lead to an underload phenomenon, and the execution of highly cognitive tasks transfers drivers into moderate load, which helps with the drivers’ takeover performance.     

成员关系对协作提取成绩的影响

当人们与搭档组成社会群体一起协作讨论某些已经发生的事件或经验时, 该社会群体中的成员关系对协作提取成绩的影响仍不明确。本研究通过两项实验, 分别使用语词词单和情景故事作为实验材料, 考察成员关系(包括关系类型和关系时长)对协作提取成绩的影响。研究结果表明, 当记忆的材料为语词词单时, 青年陌生组出现了协作抑制; 而当记忆的材料为情景故事时, 青年夫妻和老年夫妻组均出现了协作促进。此外, 老年夫妻在协作提取情景故事的过程中使用的有效交流策略更多, 且这些有效交流策略的使用与更高的协作提取成绩有关。该结果支持了具有长时亲密关系的老年夫妻之间的“交互记忆系统”对协作促进的关键作用, 为理解成员关系对协作提取成绩的影响提供了全面的证据。