Individual differences in reverse Hindsight bias: I never thought something like chernobyl would happen. Did I?

Hindsight bias was studied in the context of the accident in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which took place on April 26th 1986. An individual difference factor which relates to the motivation to process information, need for cognition, was expected to moderate the occurrence of hindsight bias. Probability estimates of many casualties due to the use of nuclear power in The Netherlands were obtained from 212 individuals two months before the accident in Chernobyl. These estimates were compared with similar estimates made in hindsight by the same individuals five months after the accident. Loglinear Analyses reveal a systematic hindsight bias. However, the direction of the bias was contrary to expectations. In hindsight, individuals gave lower probabilities than they actually did two months before the Chernobyl accident. These results reveal a reverse hindsight bias. As hypothesized, need for cognition moderates hindsight bias: individuals low and medium in need for cognition express a systematic reverse hindsight bias, while individuals high in need for cognition do not. High need for cognition individuals also show higher literal consistency between the two measurements, which supports a memory explanation of the moderating effect of need for cognition.     

Linear Analogue Self-Assessment and Procrustean Measurement: A Critical Review of Visual Analogue Scaling in Pain Assessment

Visual analogue scales (VASs) are one of the most widely used self-report measures of clinical pain. This article reviews the empirical literature on linear analogue self-assessment (LASA) and critically examines the features that appear to have made it such an attractive measurement option in pain assessment. It is concluded that analogue scaling does not withstand critical scrutiny as a primary measure of either pain intensity or pain affect and that, in most circumstances, the overall clinical utility of VASs is inferior to that of more structured pain indices.     

Shrinkage estimation of linear combinations of true scores

This paper is concerned with combining observed scores from sections of tests. It is demonstrated that in the presence of population information a linear combination of true scores can be estimated more efficiently than by the same linear combination of the observed scores. Three criteria for optimality are discussed, but they yield the same solution which can be described and motivated as a multivariate shrinkage estimator.Input from Eric Bradlow, Charles Lewis, and Linda Zeger is acknowledged. Research for this paper was funded by the Program Research Council (ETS). Suggestions of the Editor and of anonymous referees were instrumental in several improvements of the paper.     

A spanish translation and validation of the daily stress inventory and a comparison of the level of stress experienced by three culturally distinct hispanic groups

Two studies were conducted, the first to establish a valid Spanish version of the Daily Stress Inventory (DSI). A second study was conducted using the bilingual version of the DSI to assess differences in the level of stress experienced by three selected Hispanic groups: (a) very Hispanic/Hispanic-oriented bicultural, (b) true bicultural, and (c) Anglo-oriented bicultural/very Anglicized as determined by the adapted version of the Acculturation Rating Scale for Mexican Americans (ARSMA). It was expected that stress levels would be highest for the least acculturated group. The results of the first study indicate that the Bilingual DSI scores are highly correlated with the scores of the original DSI when both instruments are responded to simultaneously by fully bilingual individuals. In Study 2, the initial data analyses showed no difference in the level of stress reported by Hispanics at different levels of acculturation as measured by the ARSMA. When a median-split method was employed, differences in the DSI I/E measures between the two groups were significant, suggesting that acculturation level may be related to stress level.     

Dimensionality and validity of two scales measuring different aspects of self-esteem

Two self-esteem (SE) scales aimed to measure self-esteem–conceptualized primarily (a) as the individual's ego-integrated libidinous and aggressive drives and their derivatives (Basic SE), and (b) as the need to earn self-esteem by competence and others' appraisal (Earning SE)–were developed and factor analysed. In order to construct- and cross-validate the scales, they were related to other well-known personality scales as well as to a projective technique (TAT) in two independent samples of first semester psychology students ( n = 153, n = 82). The empirical factor structure coincided well with the theoretical formulations. Basic SE showed concurrent validity being highly correlated ( p < 0.001) with both Rosenberg's and Coopersmith's self-esteem scales and highly or moderately with Neuroticism, Extraversion (EPQ) and Test-Anxicty (TAS) in both samples. Earning SE gained some construct validation by its relation to Type-A scores (JAS) as well as to verbal fantasy stories on TAT-pictures measuring Need of Achievement.     

THE BEHAVIOR OBSERVATION INSTRUMENT: A METHOD OF DIRECT OBSERVATION FOR PROGRAM EVALUATION1

The background and development of a multicategory direct observation system, the Behavior Observation Instrument (BOI), is described. This time-sampling procedure for recording the behavior of persons is demonstrated in several treatment settings and the results applied to issues of program evaluation. Elements that have prevented direct observation from being widely adopted, such as costs, manpower, and training requirements, are systematically analyzed. A basic psychometric analysis of the instrument is used to determine optimum frequency and duration of observation intervals as well as observer agreement. The results imply that direct observation methods, once assumed by some to belong to the special province of the single-subject design, can be used to assess the effects of programs on groups of psychiatric clients in an efficient and economic manner.     

An alternative to the methodology for analysis of covariance

A general statistical model for simultaneous analysis of data from several groups is described. The model is primarily designed to be used for the analysis of covariance. The model can handle any number of covariates and criterion variables, and any number of treatment groups. Treatment effects may be assessed when the treatment groups are not randomized. In addition, the model allows for measurement errors in the criterion variables as well as in the covariates. A wide variety of hypotheses concerning the parameters of the model can be tested by means of a large sample likelihood ratio test. In particular, the usual assumptions of ANCOVA may be tested.Research reported in this paper has been partly supported by the Swedish Council for Social Science Research under project Statistical methods for analysis of longitudinal data, project director Karl G. Jöreskog, and partly by the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation under project Structural Equation Models in the Social Sciences, project director Karl G. Jöreskog.     

Confidence depends on level of aggregation

The credible intervals that people set around their point estimates are typically too narrow (cf. Lichtenstein, Fischhoff, & Phillips, 1982). That is, a set of many such intervals does not contain the actual values of the criterion variables as often as it should given the probability assigned to this event for each estimate. The typical interpretation of such data is that people are overconfident about the accuracy of their judgments. This paper presents data from two studies showing the typical levels of overconfidence for individual estimates of unknown quantities. However, data from the same subjects on a different measure of confidence for the same items, their own global assessment for the set of multiple estimates as a whole, showed significantly lower levels of confidence and overconfidence than their average individual assessment for items in the set. It is argued that the event and global assessments of judgment quality are fundamentally different and are affected by unique psychological processes. Finally, we discuss the implications of a difference between confidence in single and multiple estimates for confidence research and theory.     

The use of teachers as behavioral observers

The effect of using teachers as behavioral observers on both student and teacher behavior was examined with eight teachers and 32 elementary school children. The frequency of prompts (but not praise or criticism) to those students observed by the teacher increased significantly from nonobserver to teacher observed experimental phases. In addition, students observed by the teacher showed more change in appropriate behavior than students who were not observed. The significance of these findings for research and therapy is discussed.