Ducking the collection of costly evidence: Motivated use of statistical heuristics

We examined whether motivation affects people's use of statistical heuristics. In two studies, subjects had to decide how many instances to observe before making predictions. Half the subjects were led to believe that the observation of each instance would be relatively high in cost, and half were led to believe that it would be relatively low in cost. In both studies, only subjects for whom evidence collection was relatively high in cost accessed the aggregation principle and came to believe that aggregates afforded greater predictability than did single instances. Their belief that predictability increases sharply with sample size may have allowed these subjects to conclude what they wanted to conclude, namely that smaller samples would suffice for their predictions.     

Marketing measurably effective instructional methods

The failure to gain wider acceptance of measurably effective teaching methods by the educational establishment may be due to resistance to behaviorism, in particular, and to a set of contingencies that resist change, in general. The promotion of effective instructional methods is presented in terms of recommended marketing principles, including identifying and solving perceived consumer needs, using plain English, segmenting the marketplace and developing specific solutions, identifying opportunities for greatest impact, creating tangible educational products, seeking new markets, planning marketing strategy and tactics, and writing for non-technical publications. Precision Teaching is presented as a case study in the promotion of effective instructional methods. Although it is a measurably superior instructional methodology, Precision Teaching has not been widely adopted. By applying basic marketing principles and strategic planning, some of its proponents have initiated an ongoing effort of outreach and promotion.     

Toward a Renewed Theological Culture: Introduction

This article introduces a series of articles analysing the current state of theology and inquiring about the possibilities of a renewed theological culture (not least within secular societies). It places theology, and more precisely, the conditions of a possible renewal thereof, in several fields of tension. Paradigmatic for secular societies is the tension between theology and the natural sciences. It is argued that theology and the natural sciences cultivate different modes of reasoning on different epistemic levels and that no competition between them has to be construed if one is not caught up in the premises of secularism. A brief summary of each of the contributions follows these initial remarks.     

A qualitative study of the therapists' experiences of working with community reinforcement and family training

Community reinforcement and family training (CRAFT) was developed to help and support concerned significant others (CSO) of people with, for example, alcohol use disorder. The aim of this study was to investigate therapists' experiences of working with CRAFT and their experiences of the CSOs receiving CRAFT. The study has a qualitative design and is based on three focus group interviews with 17 therapists. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. The analysis revealed six themes and four subthemes: Concerned significant others—A special group; Help prior to CRAFT—Offering information and a shoulder; CRAFT as a new and specific method (The toolbox of CRAFT, Formats for delivering CRAFT, Introducing a diary as homework and Implementing self-help material—Alone or in combination with sessions); Moving from a lack of structure to structure; Change in CSOs from the therapists' point of view; and Change in the therapist's role (Dilemmas—Personalising the intervention). The therapists were generally satisfied with the method and found it easy to adapt to. Moreover, working using a manual was more structured than they were used to and increased feelings of working professionally with the CSOs. Specifically, most therapists found the self-help book useful and indispensable in their work with CRAFT, but also agreed that it could not be used as a stand-alone intervention for most CSOs. The therapists' experiences are relevant for implementation of manualised, structured approaches and group-based interventions more broadly.     

Exogenous testosterone and social experience each enhance the development of aggressive behavior in Cyprinodon variegatus

The combined effects of testosterone and social experience from the time of hatching on development of aggressive behaviors in Cyprinodon variegatus were investigated. Social experience was defined as a rearing condition allowing visual, tactile, chemosensory, and auditory contact with zero, three, or 15 additional conspecifics. Behaviors were videotaped once weekly from 3 weeks to 4 months post-hatching, using the focal animal method, and an ethogram was constructed. At 3 months post-hatching, half the fish were injected once with testosterone propionate (2 μg/g b. w., i. p., vehicle-Ringer's solution) and the other half were injected with Ringer's isotonic saline solution. Testosteronetreated subjects showed significantly greater frequencies and durations of behaviors that may be related to aggression than did saline controls. Two weeks after the treatments, a round-robin tournament was conducted between testosterone- and saline-treated fish from each rearing condition. Testosterone-treated fish won significantly more encounters than did saline-treated subjects over all rearing conditions. Furthermore, significantly more aggressive acts were displayed by fish raised in the groups of 16 and the groups of four than did the Isolates. Although the number of aggressive acts exhibited by the group of 16 was greater than the group of four, the difference was not statistically significant.     

A driving simulation study to investigate the information threshold of graphical variable message signs based on visual perception characteristics of drivers

Graphical variable message signs (VMSs) are infrastructure-based advanced traveler information systems widely used to provide drivers with real-time traffic condition information about a road section or area. However, there is a lack of research on the suitable volume of information to be shown on graphical VMSs. In practice, an overload of VMS information commonly exists, especially on China’s highways. Building on our earlier findings obtained through surveys and static cognitive experiments, this study introduces the use of dynamic simulation experiments to assess the influence of the volume of information (i.e., number of roads displayed) on graphical VMSs from the perspective of drivers’ visual perception characteristics. Thirty-two drivers participated in the driving simulation experiment and questionnaires. Five indexes, including legibility speed, legibility distance, legibility time, comprehension accuracy, and driver subjective scoring, were thoroughly analyzed to evaluate their relationships to different volumes of information (i.e., four, five, and six roads shown on a VMS). The results show that the legibility distance notably decreased with increasing volumes of information. The comprehension accuracy decreased significantly when the number of roads shown increased to six. The legibility speed, legibility time, and subjective scoring also deteriorated as the number of roads displayed on the VMS increased. The index scores were evaluated, in combination with the data of the drivers’ subjective scoring, data-based statistical analyses, and comprehensive evaluations using the TOPSIS method, to recommend that five is the recommended maximum number of roads to be shown on a graphical VMS. The results of this study support the goal of providing understandable and effective messages for drivers by addressing issues relating to how much information should be displayed on a VMS. These findings provide a basis for policy development to ensure consistent and practical designs of graphical VMSs on highways.     

La méthode d’intervention en psychodynamique du travail face au « tournant gestionnaire » : l’exemple d’une intervention dans une unité mixte de recherche

This text aims to show the continuing interest in using the “canonical” method of investigation in work psychodynamics in the context of what is commonly called the managerial turning point. In order to demonstrate this methodology, the authors will rely on a survey conducted in a U.M.R of science called “hard science” following a recommendation of the Agency for evaluation of research and higher education. We will raise the impact of this intervention, allowing participants to think about their work relationship and the necessary modalities in order to do it continuously well, within the managerial logic context.     

Bootstrap区间估计在认知诊断模型误设中的应用

认知诊断模型选择是认知诊断评估中重要研究问题之一。在实际应用中实践者并不知道真正拟合数据的模型,通常会用模型拟合指标检验模型与数据的拟合程度。从测量结果质量来看,除保证模型与数据拟合之外,还需要重点评价模型诊断结果的信度和效度等。考虑到以往研究大都采用基于信息量的拟合指标去判定模型与数据的匹配性,本研究提出综合考虑模型拟合指标与信度指标用于模型选择或评价模型误设。考虑实验因素为真实模型或分析模型（DINA模型、G-DINA模型、R-RUM模型）、样本量、题量和属性个数,在五因素（3×3×2×2×2）实验设计条件下,比较Bootstrap区间估计的属性分类一致性信度平均数与标准误和常用的拟合统计量-2LL、AIC、BIC对正确模型的选择率。结果表明：-2LL在题目数量多的情况下表现较好,而AIC、BIC在被试量较大的情况下表现较好,在不同的研究条件下,-2LL、AIC、BIC的模型选择率很不稳定,而用Bootstrap法估计的属性分类一致性信度平均数和标准误在不同研究条件的模型选择率较稳定,总体表现较好。     

Argumentation,Adversariality, and Social Norms

Janice Moulton's “The Adversary Method: A Philosophical Paradigm” articulated several criticisms of the popular idea of philosophy as adversarial debate. Moulton criticizes it on epistemic grounds, arguing that philosophy's overreliance on adversarial debate is to the detriment of its goals. Some, notably Trudy Govier, have argued in favor of at least a minimal adversariality, governed by norms of respectful argumentation. This paper suggests that Govier's faith in these norms is misplaced, because it neglects the social circumstances of the arguers. While some authors have argued that politeness and aggression apply differently to those of different genders, this paper extends that analysis to social identities other than gender. In fact, given certain assumptions about the philosophy of language, engagement in polite adversarial debate may not even be possible for people occupying certain social locations.     

Statistically Induced Chunking Recall: A Memory-Based Approach to Statistical Learning

The computations involved in statistical learning have long been debated. Here, we build on work suggesting that a basic memory process, chunking, may account for the processing of statistical regularities into larger units. Drawing on methods from the memory literature, we developed a novel paradigm to test statistical learning by leveraging a robust phenomenon observed in serial recall tasks: that short-term memory is fundamentally shaped by long-term distributional learning. In the statistically induced chunking recall (SICR) task, participants are exposed to an artificial language, using a standard statistical learning exposure phase. Afterward, they recall strings of syllables that either follow the statistics of the artificial language or comprise the same syllables presented in a random order. We hypothesized that if individuals had chunked the artificial language into word-like units, then the statistically structured items would be more accurately recalled relative to the random controls. Our results demonstrate that SICR effectively captures learning in both the auditory and visual modalities, with participants displaying significantly improved recall of the statistically structured items, and even recall specific trigram chunks from the input. SICR also exhibits greater test–retest reliability in the auditory modality and sensitivity to individual differences in both modalities than the standard two-alternative forced-choice task. These results thereby provide key empirical support to the chunking account of statistical learning and contribute a valuable new tool to the literature.