The Quantitative/Qualitative Watershed for Rules of Uncertain Inference

We chart the ways in which closure properties of consequence relations for uncertain inference take on different forms according to whether the relations are generated in a quantitative or a qualitative manner. Among the main themes are: the identification of watershed conditions between probabilistically and qualitatively sound rules; failsafe and classicality transforms of qualitatively sound rules; non-Horn conditions satisfied by probabilistic consequence; representation and completeness problems; and threshold-sensitive conditions such as ‘preface’ and ‘lottery’ rules. Special Issue Formal Epistemology I. Edited by Branden Fitelson     

Effects of processing speed on intelligence may be underestimated: Comment on Demetriou et al. (2013)

This commentary suggests ways to extend research by Demetriou et al. (2013), who may have underestimated the effects of processing speed on the development of intelligence. It argues that future research should consider variability in processing speed, complexity in speed tasks, and reaction times excluded from speed estimates.     

American base‐rate neglect: It is not the math,but the context

We investigate cross‐cultural disparities in focalism bias through two studies of probability estimation. Using 60 American and 60 Chinese participants, Experiment 1 yields the standard finding that Americans manifest greater focalism bias by tending to neglect background probability base‐rates and to rely more heavily on obtained samples in estimating true probabilities, whereas Chinese participants show little tendency to ignore base‐rates. In Experiment 2, the phrasing of the probability‐estimation task is changed to bring base‐rates into the focus of the problem statement, again using a sample of 60 Americans and 60 Chinese. This allows us to test whether cross‐cultural differences result from a tendency to focus on the sample, and ignore ‘context’ (i.e., the background base‐rates), rather than simply a discrepancy in mathematical facility between the two groups. The results show far less base‐rate neglect for Americans, but essentially no change for Chinese (who always use base‐rate information, regardless of how presented). This outcome argues against the explanation that Americans are poorer Bayesians simply because they are weaker mathematicians. Implications are discussed.     

The Higgs Boson: An Adventure in Critical Realism

Abstract

The search for the Higgs boson has been like the search of a pirate for buried gold. Like the pirate, the physicist has a map, a conceptual map—the Standard Model (SM) made up of mathematical formulas. Without the Higgs boson in the SM, fundamental particles would be massless. Where could the mass mechanism be? The conceptual map pointed in the right direction. On July 4, 2012 the pirates found their treasure with the help of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. In this article a physicist and theologian ask: could this be critical realism (CR) at work? Could CR constitute a set of presuppositions shared by both physicists and theologians who cannot see the object of their inquiry but employ conceptual models that presuppose the reality of its referent? What role could shared CR play in the creative mutual interaction between science and theology?     

A model for the time-order error in contrast discrimination

Trials in a temporal two-interval forced-choice discrimination experiment consist of two sequential intervals presenting stimuli that differ from one another as to magnitude along some continuum. The observer must report in which interval the stimulus had a larger magnitude. The standard difference model from signal detection theory analyses poses that order of presentation should not affect the results of the comparison, something known as the balance condition (J.-C. Falmagne, 1985, in Elements of Psychophysical Theory). But empirical data prove otherwise and consistently reveal what Fechner (1860/1966, in Elements of Psychophysics) called time-order errors, whereby the magnitude of the stimulus presented in one of the intervals is systematically underestimated relative to the other. Here we discuss sensory factors (temporary desensitization) and procedural glitches (short interstimulus or intertrial intervals and response bias) that might explain the time-order error, and we derive a formal model indicating how these factors make observed performance vary with presentation order despite a single underlying mechanism. Experimental results are also presented illustrating the conventional failure of the balance condition and testing the hypothesis that time-order errors result from contamination by the factors included in the model.     

Methods and aims of investigative interviewing of adult witnesses: An analysis of professional practices

Eyewitnesses provide crucial evidence for the investigation of criminal cases. We analysed professional police interviewers’ behaviour by conducting a literature review. Our results indicate that the interviewing techniques used by untrained and trained investigators are predominantly inappropriate and harmful to memory recall. The way investigators curtail and select witnesses’ responses suggests that they look for specific information. As a subsequent step, we analysed investigative interviewing in terms of professional objectives, identifying the types of information that the police inquire about during the interview. Based on our results, we conclude future research should perform a fine-grained analysis of professional interviewing procedures with the aim of producing effective interviewing techniques that meet investigators’ real-world objectives.     

Étude exploratoire de la stabilité à long terme des indices standard du WISC-IV

By a Test–Retest procedure, this study explores the long-term stability of the French WISC-IV index scores. The average Test–Retest interval was 2.33 years. The sample consisted of 96 non-clinical children aged between 8 and 12 years. Mean difference between the two testings was not statistically significant for VCI, PRI, WMI, GAI and FSIQ. Test–Retest reliability correlations between the two assessments are high for VCI, GAI and FSIQ (ranging from .81 to .82). An analysis of the performance differences between two assessments indicates intra-individual stability for WMI and GAI. In sum, only GAI demonstrates reliable long-term stability at an inter-and intra-individual level.     

What Russell Couldn't Describe

There is currently debate between deflationists and anti-deflationists about the ontology of persisting objects. Some deflationists think that disputes between, for example, four-dimensionalists (e.g. Ted Sider and David Lewis) and quasi-nihilists (e.g. Peter Van Inwagen and Trenton Merricks) are merely verbal disputes. Anti-deflationists deny this. Eli Hirsch is a deflationist who maintains that many ontological disputes are merely verbal. Theodore Sider maintains that the disputes are not merely verbal. Hirsch and Sider are thus engaged in a metaontological dispute. In this paper, I argue that Hirsch's metaontological dispute with Sider is, by Hirsch's own lights, itself merely verbal. I conclude that the mere verbalness of his metaontological dispute with Sider suggests that Hirsch's account of what makes a dispute merely verbal may be problematic.