The reference class problem is your problem too

The reference class problem arises when we want to assign a probability to a proposition (or sentence, or event) X, which may be classified in various ways, yet its probability can change depending on how it is classified. The problem is usually regarded as one specifically for the frequentist interpretation of probability and is often considered fatal to it. I argue that versions of the classical, logical, propensity and subjectivist interpretations also fall prey to their own variants of the reference class problem. Other versions of these interpretations apparently evade the problem. But I contend that they are all “no-theory” theories of probability - accounts that leave quite obscure why probability should function as a guide to life, a suitable basis for rational inference and action. The reference class problem besets those theories that are genuinely informative and that plausibly constrain our inductive reasonings and decisions. I distinguish a “metaphysical” and an “epistemological” reference class problem. I submit that we can dissolve the former problem by recognizing that probability is fundamentally a two-place notion: conditional probability is the proper primitive of probability theory. However, I concede that the epistemological problem remains.     

Effects of self‐explanation as a metacognitive strategy for solving mathematical word problems1

Abstract: This study examined how a metacognitive strategy known as self‐explanation influences word problem solving in elementary school children. Participants were 79 sixth‐graders. They were assigned to one of three groups: the self‐explanation group, the self‐learning group, or the control group. Students in each group performed a ratio word problem test and a transfer test. The results showed that students in the self‐explanation group outperformed students in the other two groups on both the ratio word problem test and on the transfer test. In addition, high explainers who generated more self‐explanations relating to deep understanding of worked‐out examples outperformed low explainers on both ratio word problem and transfer tests. The self‐explanation effect is discussed.     

The effects of fine motor movement and tactile stimulation on the math problem solving of students with attention problems

This study evaluated the effectiveness of fine motor physical activity with tactile stimulation during two conditions of math problem solving, visual and auditory. Eight 4th and 5th grade students with attention problems participated. Using an alternating treatments design, students solved as many math story problems as they could, presented on worksheets or verbally during two conditions, with and without tactile stimulation during 20 min. Motor behavior, recorded from videotape, and number of correctly completed word problems were measured. Results suggest that fine motor manipulation of a tactile stimulation object reduced excessive motor movement and increased task completion of students with attention problems.     

Searle on the unity of the world

According to mentalism some existing things are endowed with (subjectively) conscious minds. According to physicalism all existing things consist entirely of physical particles in fields of force. Searle holds that mentalism and physicalism are compatible and true—“the world is one”. The aim of this paper is to show that Searle fails to make the compatibility between mentalism and physicalism intelligible. The paper has three parts: first, I criticize drawing an analogy between solidity and consciousness as macro-features of systems with micro-features. Second, I argue that Searle’s defence of the ontological irreducibility of consciousness is terminologically confused and that his argument for the trivial nature of that irreducibility is unsuccessful. Third, I defend Nagel’s argument for the causal irreducibility of conscious minds by answering some of Searle’s objections to it.

比较应用题解题过程的眼动研究

采用2×2×4三因素混合实验设计,使用美国应用科学实验室(ASL)生产的504型台式眼动仪,对不同年级学生解比较应用题过程中的解题指标和眼动指标进行分析。结果表明:随着年级的增高,学生解题过程中的各种眼动指标之间的差异逐渐缩小;解题时数学成绩优生与差生的眼动模式差异显著,解一致性不同题目时的眼动指标差异显著。     

Profiles in Problem Solving: Psychological Well-Being and Distress Among Persons with Diabetes Mellitus

Although social problem-solving abilities have been consistently associated with indicators of behavioral health, this work has been largely confined to tests of specific theoretical issues. Research has yet to demonstrate how the separate elements of the social problem-solving model relate to different patterns of adjustment, particularly among persons who live with chronic disease. We studied the occurrence of different profiles of social problem-solving abilities observed among persons living with diabetes mellitus. We then examined differences between clusters on measures of life satisfaction and depression. Results indicate that distinct profiles in problem-solving abilities do occur and these groupings can be distinguished by their different patterns of adjustment. Implications for theoretical models of problem solving and clinical assessment and interventions for persons with diabetes are discussed.     

两岁儿童情绪调节策略与其问题行为

本研究在实验室中对148名2岁儿童在紧张情境中的情绪调节策略进行观察,通过聚类分析,根据儿童情绪调节策略使用的特点将儿童分为积极活动型,中间型和安慰型.同时,父母报告儿童问题行为.结果发现,在外显问题行为上,三组儿童之间的差异不显著,而在内向性问题行为上各类型儿童之间的差异显著,具体来说,安慰型儿童的内隐性问题行为得分显著高于其它类型儿童.     

Qualitative and Quantitative Shifts in Adolescent Problem Behavior Development: A Cohort-Sequential Multivariate Latent Growth Modeling Approach

The aim of this study was to examine the nature of problem behavior development from late childhood through adolescence, to assess the quantitative development of problem behavior (alcohol use, marijuana use, deviance, academic failure) as well as potential qualitative shifts in problem behavior over time. Multivariate latent growth curve modeling (LGM) analyses and a cohort-sequential design were employed. Data were from the National Youth Survey and included 770 youth from four cohorts (11, 12, 13, 14 years old), assessed annually for 5 years. Results showed significant growth in problem behavior from ages 11 to 18. Alcohol use and marijuana use contributed most, and academic failure contributed least to the problem behavior latent construct. Results of the variant model revealed that the contribution of all four behaviors to the overall problem behavior construct increased similarly as children aged.     

儿童4岁时的自我控制对其7岁及11岁社会适应的预测

采用追踪设计,考察了138名儿童4岁时的自我控制对其7-11岁期间社会适应的影响。分别采用实验室观察法和问卷法测量了儿童的自我控制与社会适应。研究结果表明（1）儿童4岁时的自我控制存在显著的性别差异,其中女孩的自我控制水平显著高于男孩;（2）4岁时的自我控制能够显著负向预测7岁时母亲报告的外显和内隐问题行为,以及父亲报告的外显问题行为;（3）4岁时的自我控制能够显著负向预测7岁时教师评价的学习问题行为;（4）4岁时的自我控制能够显著负向预测11岁时父亲报告的外显问题行为;（5）4岁时的自我控制能够显著正向预测教师报告的挫折耐受能力。     

母亲抑郁和惩罚对儿童早期问题行为的影响及父亲的保护作用

儿童早期是母亲消极情绪和行为的易感期,母亲抑郁和消极的教养行为可能导致儿童早期多方面的发展问题,而父亲的积极教养则可能对孩子的健康发展起到保护作用。本研究以184名学前儿童的父亲和母亲为被试,考察母亲抑郁情绪和惩罚行为对儿童问题行为的影响及作用机制,以及父亲积极鼓励在其中的调节作用。结果发现:(1)母亲抑郁显著预测儿童的内向问题行为,母亲惩罚显著预测内向和外向问题行为;(2)母亲抑郁完全通过其惩罚行为影响儿童的外向问题行为,部分通过惩罚影响儿童的内向问题行为;(3)父亲积极鼓励显著调节母亲抑郁对外向问题行为的影响,边缘显著调节母亲抑郁对内向问题行为的影响;父亲积极鼓励对母亲惩罚与内、外向问题行为之间的关系的调节不显著,表明积极的父亲鼓励可以缓冲母亲抑郁对儿童问题行为的影响。