Toward a new conceptualization and operationalization of risk perception within the genetic counseling domain

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, it provides an historical overview of studies of risk, risk perception, and decision making under risk within the genetic counseling domain. Second, it proposes an alternative conceptualization and operationalization for the study of risk perception. The conceptualization involves probability, adversity, incompleteness, and ambiguity. Prior studies of risk perception focus on the recurrence risk and operationalize risk perception by asking for interpretations of the magnitude of the probability of the outcome. Their focus is on the probability of a particular outcome. We formulate the problem in terms of a gamble and suggest that risk perception be operationalized in terms of the riskiness of the gamble. Our focus is on the riskiness of a decision option which entails two or more outcomes.     

Teamwork makes the dream work: Testing for shared perceptions on psycho-behavioural skills between athletes,coaches and parents

Psycho-behavioural skills play a key role in optimising progression through talent development, and this study investigated to what extent athlete’s self-perceptions align with those of their coaches and parents. Firstly, we examined if levels of alignment between these three raters differ across age of the athlete. To this end, 122 athletes between 9 and 18 years old (12.17 ± 2.41 years old; 47 gymnasts, 13 cyclists and 62 badminton players) completed a psycho-behavioural questionnaire. The ANOVA’s indicated low levels of correspondence between the ratings of the athlete, the coach and the parents during childhood, while better levels of shared perceptions were found in adolescence. Secondly, we investigated to what extent coaches and parents believed their own perception of the athlete’s and the perception of the athlete’s psycho-behavioural skills were accurate. Parents appeared to be more confident in accurately perceiving the psycho-behavioural skills of the athlete than coaches. Parents and coaches also believed that older athletes would be more honest on their psycho-behavioural shortcomings than younger athletes. Altogether, these findings highlight that athletes and other stakeholders in the talent development environment should strive for better alignment in perceptions on psycho-behavioural skills during the talent development pathway. With better integrated perceptions, a more functional and efficient talent development system for the athlete targeting the psycho-behavioural skills can be created.     

CHOICE-MAKING TREATMENT OF YOUNG CHILDREN'S SEVERE BEHAVIOR PROBLEMS

The choice-making behavior of 5 young children with developmental disabilities who engaged in aberrant behavior was studied within a concurrent operants framework. Experimental analyses were conducted to identify reinforcers that maintained aberrant behavior, and functional communication training packages were implemented to teach the participants to gain reinforcement using mands. Next, a choice-making analysis, in which the participants chose one of two responses (either a mand or an alternative neutral response) to obtain different durations and qualities of reinforcement, was conducted. Finally, treatment packages involving choice making via manding were implemented to decrease inappropriate behavior and to increase mands. The results extended previous applications of choice making to severe behavior disorders and across behaviors maintained by positive and negative reinforcement.     

A compensatory approach to optimal selection with mastery scores

A Bayesian approach for simultaneous optimization of test-based decisions is presented using the example of a selection decision for a treatment followed by a mastery decision. A distinction is made between weak and strong rules where, as opposed to strong rules, weak rules use prior test scores as collateral data. Conditions for monotonicity of optimal weak and strong rules are presented. It is shown that under mild conditions on the test score distributions and utility functions, weak rules are always compensatory by nature. The authors are indebted to Wilbert Kallenberg for his valuable comments and to Jan Gulmans for providing the data for the empirical example. The names of the authors are alphabetical; they are equally responsible for the contents of this paper.     

Decisions,actions, and the appropriateness of confidence in knowledge

This research examines the appropriateness of confidence (i.e., subjective probability judgments) in knowledge associated with decisions and actions of social importance. One hundred and thirty seven participants completed a 50 item questionnaire assessing their knowledge of the two leading candidates in the 1988 presidential election in the U.S.A. Ninety one of the respondents completed the questionnaire one week prior to the election, whereas the other 46 completed the questionnaire on election day shortly after voting. After each item in the questionnaire, all respondents indicated whether or not the item content represented a reason why they voted (or intended to vote) for or against the candidate to whom the item referred. Within-person results indicated that, in comparison to items that were not cited as reasons for voting intentions or voting behavior, items endorsed as reasons were characterized by better accuracy and resolution, but worse overconfidence. Between groups, decision makers were significantly more accurate and better calibrated than those who had not made a decision between the candidates. Implications of inappropriate confidence on decision making effectiveness are discussed.     

A study of the foundations of ethical decision making of clinical medical ethicists

A study of clinical medical ethicists was conducted to determine the various philosophical positions they hold with respect to ethical decision making in medicine and their various positions' relationship to the subjective-objective controversy in value theory. The study consisted of analyzing and interpreting data gathered from questionnaires from 52 clinical medical ethicists at 28 major health care centers in the United States. The study revealed that most clinical medical ethicists tend to be objectivists in value theory, i.e., believe that value judgments are knowledge claims capable of being true or false and therefore expressions of moral requirements and normative imperatives emanating from an external value structure or moral order in the world. In addition, the study revealed that most clinical medical ethicists are consistent in the philosophical foundations of their ethical decision making, i.e., in decision making regarding values they tend not to hold beliefs which are incompatible with other beliefs they hold about values.     

Simulation of Preference Information in an Interactive Reference Point‐Based Method for the Bi‐Objective Inventory Routing Problem

In the research area of multiple criteria decision making, very few publications exist that explicitly design the simulation of a decision maker (DM) in an interactive approach. For this reason, we outline some methods widely used in the literature to identify common assumptions of simulating the DM's responses and the required input preference information. Our paper aims at covering the identified gap by introducing experimental concepts. Such concepts are used for theoretical analyses of a combined search‐and‐decision‐making procedure. Simulating the DM is a fruitful idea because the algorithm can be tested without integrating a human decision maker. Finally, we conduct experiments based on the proposed settings for a multiobjective inventory routing problem, which is a relevant and challenging logistic problem. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adversary effects and the tactics of violent offenders

We examine the implication of adversary effects for target choice, lethal intent, and the use of weapons and allies in violent incidents. Adversary effects refer to the tendency of offenders to make tactical decisions based on the coercive power of victims and potential victims. Using the victim's gender as a proxy for coercive power, we analyzed violent incidents from the National Incident‐Based Reporting System (2005–2014). The sample included over six million assaults, robberies, and homicides. Consistent with adversary effects, offenders who attack males (vs. females) are more likely to (a) kill victims; (b) use guns, knives, blunt objects, poison, and automobiles; (c) use male (but not female) allies; and (d) use multiple allies. The evidence for target choice is mixed: unarmed female offenders, but not unarmed male offenders, are more likely to target females than males. The evidence shows how a simple theoretical principle can parsimoniously account for basic patterns of violence in society related to gender, weapons, and group violence.     

Discerning Mouse Trajectory Features With the Drift Diffusion Model

Mouse tracking, a new action-based measure of behavior, has advanced theories of decision making with the notion that cognitive and social decision making is fundamentally dynamic. Implicit in this theory is that people's decision strategies, such as discounting delayed rewards, are stable over task design and that mouse trajectory features correspond to specific segments of decision making. By applying the hierarchical drift diffusion model and the Bayesian delay discounting model, we tested these assumptions. Specifically, we investigated the extent to which the “mouse-tracking” design of decision-making tasks (delay discounting task, DDT and stop-signal task, SST) deviate from the standard “keypress” design of decision making tasks. We found remarkable agreement in delay discounting rates (intertemporal impatience) obtained in the keypress and mouse-tracking versions of DDT (ρ = 0.90) even though these tasks were given about 1 week apart. Rates of evidence accumulation converged well in the two versions (DDT, ρ = .86; SST, ρ = .55). Omission/commission error in SST showed high agreement (ρ = .42, ρ = .53). Mouse-motion features such as maximum velocity and AUC (area under the curve) correlated well with nondecision time (ρ = −.42) and boundary separation (ρ = .44)—the amount of information needed to accumulate prior to making a response. These results indicate that the response time (RT) and motion-based decision tasks converge well at a fundamental level, and that mouse-tracking features such as AUC and maximum velocity do indicate the degree of decision conflict and impulsivity.     

Choosing what to choose from: Preference for inclusion over exclusion when constructing consideration sets from large choice sets

Decision making is a two‐stage process, consisting of, first, consideration set construction and then final choice. Decision makers can form a consideration set from a choice set using one of two strategies: including the options they wish to further consider or excluding those they do not wish to further consider. The authors propose that decision makers have a relative preference for an inclusion (vs. exclusion) strategy when choosing from large choice sets and that this preference is driven primarily by a lay belief that inclusion requires less effort than exclusion, particularly in large choice sets. Study 1 demonstrates that decision makers prefer using an inclusion (vs. exclusion) strategy when faced with large choice sets. Study 2 replicates the effect of choice set size on preference for consideration set construction strategy and demonstrates that the belief that exclusion is more effortful mediates the relative preference for inclusion in large choice sets. Studies 3 and 4 further support the importance of perceived effort, demonstrating a greater preference for inclusion in large choice sets when decision makers are primed to think about effort (vs. accuracy; Study 3) and when the choice set is perceived as requiring more effort because of more information being presented about each alternative (vs. more alternatives in the choice set; Study 4). Finally, Study 5 manipulates consideration set construction strategy, showing that using inclusion (vs. exclusion) in large choice sets leads to smaller consideration sets, greater confidence in the decision process, and a higher quality consideration set.