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151.
A prominent and long-standing theory of eyewitness identification decision making distinguishes between absolute judgments, based on the lineup members' match to the witness's memory of the perpetrator, versus relative judgments, based on match values relative to other lineup members. This distinction was implemented in a computational model and simulations showed that the model predicts an accuracy advantage for absolute judgments over relative judgments under some conditions. The present experiment tested this prediction by evaluating the accuracy of witnesses instructed to use relative or absolute rules. Contrary to predictions, the overall analysis did not show an absolute advantage. Additional exploratory analyses showed a relative advantage when the suspect was surrounded by high-similarity foils. These results are consistent with a model that assumes that side-by-side comparisons of lineup members increase diagnostic accuracy by allowing witnesses to give greater weight to more diagnostic features and less weight to less diagnostic features.  相似文献   
152.
This paper investigates the origins of a widespread decision bias in betting markets, the favorite‐longshot bias (FLB); in particular, whether it is caused by cognitive errors on the part of bettors or by the pricing policies of bookmakers. The methodology is based on previous literature, which has suggested that: (i) races, as decision tasks for bettors, can be distinguished by their degree of complexity and their attractiveness to those with access to privileged information (insiders), (ii) cognitive errors increase as complexity increases, and (iii) bookmakers set odds in a manner to protect themselves from insiders. The degree of FLB was examined in races of varying complexity and attractiveness to insiders using a dataset of 8545 races drawn from the parallel bookmaker and pari‐mutuel markets operating in the UK in 2004. The results, interpreted in the light of the cognitive error and complexity literature, suggest that neither bettors' nor bookmakers' cognitive errors are the main cause of the bias. Rather, bettors' preferences for risk and the deliberate pricing policies of bookmakers play key roles in influencing the bias in markets where bookmakers and pari‐mutuel operators coexist. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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因果力比较范式下对效力PC理论的检验   总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1  
王墨耘  傅小兰 《心理学报》2004,36(2):160-167
在用图形方式集中呈现信息的条件下,用因果力大小比较的实验范式检验效力PC理论。233名大学生被试对不同化学药物影响动物基因变异的能力做大小比较判断。结果发现,对单一因果关系因果力大小的比较判断具有以下3个特点:(1)不对称性:在预防原因条件下的因果力判断一般符合效力PC理论,而在产生原因条件下的因果力判断一般不符合效力PC理论;(2)在同时变化协变值DP和结果基率P(E|~C)的产生原因条件下,多数被试使用DP规则。这与概率对比模型的预测相一致,而不支持效力PC理论;(3)在固定协变值DP而只变化结果基率P(E|~C)的产生原因条件下,多数被试使用变异比RP规则。这是目前所有的因果推理理论都不能解释的现象。  相似文献   
155.
In France, laïcité is a legal principle enforcing State secularism. However, research indicates that Modern (vs. traditional) beliefs about laïcité (ML) help legitimate prejudice against minorities. From Social Identity Theory, we hypothesized that ML should be positively linked with national identification, stereotyping, prejudice and support for discrimination. Accordingly, we demonstrate that ML independently predicts support for discriminatory policies (Study 1a, = 241) and Maghrebi IAT scores (Study 1b, = 242). ML mediates the link between national identification and Generalized Prejudice (Study 2a, = 215; Study 2d, = 114) as well as Support for Discriminatory Policies (Study 2b, = 250). Experimental corroboration of this mediation was provided (Study 2c, N = 100). An exploratory study showed that priming ML led to more support for discrimination through national identification (Study 3, = 89). These results reveal the important intergroup regulation feature of ML beliefs in France.  相似文献   
156.
This study examined duration judgments for taboo and neutral words in prospective and retrospective timing tasks. In the prospective task, participants attended to time from the beginning and generated shorter duration estimates for taboo than neutral words and for words that they subsequently recalled in a surprise free recall task. These findings suggested that memory encoding took priority over estimating durations, directing attention away from time and causing better recall but shorter perceived durations for taboo than neutral words. However, in the retrospective task, participants only judged durations in a surprise test at the end, and their duration estimates were longer for taboo than neutral words. Present findings therefore suggest that the same emotion-linked memory encoding processes can cause underestimation of durations in prospective tasks but overestimation in retrospective tasks, as if emotion enhances recall of ongoing events but causes overestimation of the durations of those events in retrospect.  相似文献   
157.
学习判断是指人们在学习之后对自己学习效果所做的一种预测,是元记忆监测性判断的一种形式。学习判断按其发生时间的不同可以分为即时学习判断和延迟学习判断。与即时学习判断相比,延迟学习判断的相对准确性较高,被称为延迟学习判断效应。实验借助事件相关电位技术探究延迟学习判断的时间加工进程,发现高等级学习判断比低等级学习判断诱发了更大的时间窗为400-600ms的早期新旧效应和800-1200ms的晚期右侧额区新旧效应。上述结果表明,延迟学习判断包含不止一个加工过程,早期新旧效应反映了线索再认的过程,晚期右侧额区效应则反映了对提取之后的评估过程,该结果进一步验证了两阶段模型解释延迟学习判断效应的有效性。  相似文献   
158.
This study examined the differential effects of an absolute versus a relative judgment task on the retrieval of the border-position items after the combining of two separate serial lists. Under the absolute judgment condition (Experiment 1), the border-position items showed a local distinctiveness effect (faster judgment on these items than on the neighboring items), consistent with the prediction of the local distinctiveness theory of order memory, but not under the relative judgment condition (Experiment 2). The absence of the local distinctiveness effect under the relative judgment condition was consistent with the prediction of the global distinctiveness theory that a midseries item cannot be remembered better than its neighbors. The causes of the differential effects of the two judgment tasks were discussed.  相似文献   
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Age-related differences in memory monitoring appear when people learn emotional words. Namely, younger adults’ judgments of learning (JOLs) are higher for positive than neutral words, whereas older adults’ JOLs do not discriminate between positive versus neutral words. In two experiments, we evaluated whether this age-related difference extends to learning positive versus neutral pictures. We also evaluated the contribution of two dimensions of emotion that may impact younger and older adults’ JOLs: valence and arousal. Younger and older adults studied pictures that were positive or neutral and either high or low in arousal. Participants made immediate JOLs and completed memory tests. In both experiments, the magnitude of older adults’ JOLs was influenced by emotion, and both younger and older adults demonstrated an emotional salience effect on JOLs. As important, the magnitude of participants’ JOLs was influenced by valence, and not arousal. Emotional salience effects were also evident on participants’ free recall, and older adults recalled as many pictures as did younger adults. Taken together, these data suggest that older adults do not have a monitoring deficit when learning positive (vs. neutral) pictures and that emotional salience effects on younger and older adults’ JOLs are produced more by valence than by arousal.  相似文献   
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