The Role of Independence and Stationarity in Probabilistic Models of Binary Choice

After more then 50 years of probabilistic choice modeling in economics, marketing, political science, psychology, and related disciplines, theoretical and computational advances give scholars access to a sophisticated array of modeling and inference resources. We review some important, but perhaps often overlooked, properties of major classes of probabilistic choice models. For within‐respondent applications, we discuss which models require repeated choices by an individual to be independent and response probabilities to be stationary. We show how some model classes, but not others, are invariant over variable preferences, variable utilities, or variable choice probabilities. These models, but not others, accommodate pooling of responses or averaging of choice proportions within participant when underlying parameters vary across observations. These, but not others, permit pooling/averaging across respondents in the presence of individual differences. We also review the role of independence and stationarity in statistical inference, including for probabilistic choice models that, themselves, do not require those properties. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SOIL CARBON TRANSFORMATIONS

Climate change is a wicked problem with causes and consequences overlapping with other wicked problems and no single solution (Hulme 2015). For example, the frequent droughts associated with climate change exacerbate another major problem facing humanity as we enter the Anthropocene: how to produce adequate food to feed a growing population without increasing pollution or “more food with low pollution (MoFoLoPo)” (Davidson et al. 2015). Soils represent an intersection of these two wicked problems, because they are integral to food production through agriculture and also are an important component of global climate models. Recent focus in the field of soil carbon cycling has facilitated a transformation in our understanding of the processes that control this important resource. This understanding is critical to responding to both wicked problems.     

基于期望值最大化的理论何时失效：风险决策中为自己-为所有人决策差异的眼动研究

主流的风险决策理论专家发展了一系列基于期望值最大化(expectation-maximization)的理论, 以期捕获所有人的风险决策行为。然而大量证据表明, 这些基于期望值最大化的理论并不能如同描述性理论那样理想地描述单一个体的决策行为。本研究采用眼动追踪技术, 系统考察了个体在为所有人决策与为自己决策时的风险决策行为及信息加工过程的差异。本研究发现, 基于期望值最大化的理论可捕获为所有人决策或为自己多次决策时的情况, 却不能很好捕获个体为自己进行单次决策时的情况。本研究结果有助于理解基于期望值最大化的理论与启发式/非基于期望值最大化的理论的边界, 为风险决策理论的划分和发展提供实证参考。     

Cyclists' perception of cycling infrastructure – A Repertory Grid approach

Previous research indicate that cyclists prefer safe and comfortable infrastructure. However, concepts like safety or comfort may be understood and defined in different ways by different individuals. Moreover, these concepts are so broad that it is unclear to which specific characteristics of the traffic infrastructure they are linked. Therefore, the aim of this study is to inductively examine individual evaluation criteria that cyclists use to perceive and evaluate certain route attributes. Using the Repertory Grid technique, we elicited the personal constructs of 23 participants about given route attributes and asked them to rate every attribute on every construct. The constructs were categorized and clustered resulting in five evaluation criteria, namely Mental Comfort, Physical Comfort, Interaction, Environment, and Ease of Use. Both comfort clusters were rated the most relevant for route choice, but they strengthen the suggestion of two distinct aspects of comfort, one referring to mental stress, the other referring to physical effort. Furthermore, the analyses revealed Interaction as a relatively new route criterion which also raises a new view on the negative evaluation of motor traffic and expands the concept of stress. Regarding the evaluation of route attributes, a high traffic volume and cobbled stone were rated the most negative, whereas separated cycling facilities were evaluated as most positive. Findings of this study expand existing research by qualitative insights and provide a more detailed understanding of route criteria like comfort or safety. This can be used to enhance cycling facilities and to offer preferable infrastructure for cyclists.     

The need for speed: Scores on a new video-based measure of speeding propensity,suitable for use in online research,correlate with drivers’ on-road speeding behaviour

A video-based measure of drivers’ speeding propensity (the UQ Video Speed Test) was developed for use in both laboratory-based and online research studies. In the test, the respondent is presented with a series of 16 video clips of traffic footage, which were shot from the driver’s perspective using a camera mounted behind the windscreen of a moving car. For each clip, the respondent’s task is to indicate to what extent they would travel faster or slower than the speed of the camera car. Responses to all clips are averaged to determine the respondent’s overall score. In the present study, we investigated associations between drivers’ video speed test scores and five measures of real everyday speeding behaviour obtained over a 5-week period using GPS trackers. There was a significant positive correlation for each of the five on-road speeding measures. In addition, age-related differences in test scores were consistent with observed real-world group differences in speeding behaviour. Test scores also correlated with an established self-report questionnaire measure of speeding (i.e., the Speed Scale from the Driving Style Questionnaire). Overall, the data supported the use of the UQ Video Speed Test as a proxy measure of drivers’ real-world speeding behaviour in laboratory-based and online studies (though it would be inadvisable to use such tests in the assessment of drivers for licensing purposes, due to the potential to “fake good”). The test can be deployed using standard online survey platforms (e.g., Qualtrics), and is available at no cost for use in driving research.     

When Manipulation Gets Personal

Many accounts of moral responsibility have emerged recently that question the importance of conscious choice for moral responsibility. Instead of this ‘volitional’ requirement, these ‘attributionist’ accounts claim that agents are responsible for their actions when their actions reflect who they are and what they value. This paper argues that attributionist accounts are too quick to dismiss the connection between volition and moral responsibility. By excising conscious control from their accounts, attributionists leave open the undesirable possibility that an agent may fulfil all necessary conditions for moral responsibility even when she is under the conscious control of another person. Through analyzing situations in which attributionist conditions for moral responsibility are met while an agent is controlled by someone else, the link between an agent's volition and her moral responsibility becomes more apparent.     

German students’ current choice of profession in the field of psychotherapy

The psychoanalytic societies in Germany as in many other countries are concerned by a decline in the number of candidates for full psychoanalytic training. While this situation is partly attributable to changes both in society and in educational and healthcare systems, it is questionable whether psychoanalytic training institutions have yet found adequate responses to it. Under the banner of ‘evidence‐based treatment’, behaviour therapy has come to be widely disseminated, with major implications for the teaching of different psychotherapy paradigms at universities. To investigate the determinants of this trend in the specific German situation, a large‐scale, multi‐method exploratory study supported by IPA's DPPT programme was undertaken, focusing on the reasons given by a population (N = 679) of German psychology, medical, and education students for embarking on training in psychoanalysis or behaviour therapy. The results suggest that behaviour therapy is more compatible with the prevailing scientific understanding and with current societal and cultural trends, owing in part to inadequacies or bias in university teaching of the various paradigms of psychotherapy. While most of the psychology students expressed a preference for behavioural training, the psychotherapy option proved less attractive for their counterparts in the fields of medicine and education. Semi‐standardized qualitative interviews were used to gain a deeper understanding of the students’ decisions for or against training in a specific paradigm, and led to the identification of seven decision‐making prototypes. Possible reasons for the students’ decisions are discussed, and concrete proposals and recommendations are presented.     

Value‐related goals and vocational choice: The effect of temporal distance

This field study examines the importance that people assign to value‐related goals in their vocational decisions. We focused on the interactive effects of temporal distance from the vocational decision and the level of abstraction of the goal. Soldiers rated the importance of value‐related goals for their vocational choice following their release from military service. They were presented with value‐driven, abstract, decontextualized goals and with value‐driven, concrete, job‐related goals. For half, vocational choice was temporally close, and for the rest, it was temporally distant. Temporal distance from the vocational decision interacted with the level of abstraction of the goals in predicting their importance: When construed in the abstract, the goals were deemed more important if the vocational decision was distant. When construed concretely, the goals were deemed more important if the vocational decision was proximate.     

Military Ethical Decision Making: The Effects of Option Choice and Perspective Taking on Moral Decision-Making Processes and Intentions

We investigated the ethical decision-making processes and intentions of 151 military personnel responding to 1 of 2 ethical scenarios drawn from the deployment experiences of military commanders. For each scenario, option choice and perspective affected decision-making processes. Differences were also found between the 2 scenarios. Results add to the emerging literature concerning operational ethical conflicts and highlight the complexity and challenge that often accompanies operational ethics.     

“Please watch right” – Evaluation of a speech-based on-demand assistance system for urban intersections

In a driving simulator study we evaluated a speech-based driver assistance system for urban intersections (called Assistance on Demand AoD system) which supports the driver in monitoring and decision making. The system provides recommendations for suitable time gaps to enter the intersection based on the observation of crossing traffic. Following an “on-demand”-concept, the driver activates the assistance only if support is desired.In one drive, drivers used the AoD system in every situation they experienced to guarantee that every driver had the same exposure to the system when evaluating it. During another drive, drivers were free to decide if they want to use the system or not. The experimental study compared the AoD system with driving manually and with driving supported by a more conventional visual-based system which was always active at intersections (system showing colored arrows in a simulated head-up display (HUD) to visualize the crossing traffic). This resulted in four drives the drivers had to perform. Every drive consisted of several intersections with varying traffic conditions. The drivers had to turn left at every intersection.A total of 24 drivers took part in the study; one group with 14 middle-aged drivers and another group with ten high-aged drivers. Several questionnaires and online ratings were used to assess drivers’ acceptance, perceived usefulness, benefits and specific characteristics of both system variants. In addition, driving behaviour with regard to gap choice and drivers’ monitoring behaviour (using head tracking data) were analyzed.The results show that the AoD system reaches high acceptance ratings and is preferred compared to the visual, always active system. Using the speech modality for communication and the on-demand concept were both highly appreciated by the drivers. With regard to driving behaviour, the AoD system is comparably safe as manual driving while at the same time making driving easier by facilitating the monitoring of vehicles while waiting at an intersection.