多阶段混合增长模型的方法及研究现状

多阶段混合增长模型(PGMM)可对发展过程中的阶段性及群体异质性特征进行分析,在能力发展、行为发展及干预、临床心理等研究领域应用广泛。PGMM可在结构方程模型和随机系数模型框架下定义,通常使用基于EM算法的极大似然估计和基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟的贝叶斯推断两种方法进行参数估计。样本量、测量时间点数、潜在类别距离等因素对模型及参数估计有显著影响。未来应加强PGMM与其它增长模型的比较研究;在相同或不同的模型框架下研究数据特征、类别属性等对参数估计方法的影响。     

组织情境中腐败的研究进展

随着公司各类丑闻和腐败事件的不断曝光,腐败受到管理学领域的广泛关注。本文基于腐败的定义,对个体腐败和组织腐败的影响因素加以回顾,从动态和多层次的视角总结了腐败从个体现象演变成群体或组织现象的过程模型,主要包括腐败常规化模型、道德推脱模型、社会认同模型和情绪诱发模型。最后,从探索其他影响因素及交互作用、对群体腐败提出假设并检验、进一步构建腐败理论三个方面对该领域的未来研究方向做出展望。     

Developing symbolic capacity one step at a time

The present research examines the ability of children as young as 4 years to use models in tasks that require scaling of distance along a single dimension. In Experiment 1, we found that tasks involving models are similar in difficulty to those involving maps that we studied earlier (Huttenlocher, J., Newcombe, N., & Vasilyeva, M. (1999). Spatial scaling in young children. Psychological Science, 10, 393-398). In Experiment 2, we found that retrieval tasks, where children indicate the location of a hidden object in an actual space are substantially more difficult than placement tasks, where children put a visible object in a particular location in an actual space. We discuss possible implications of the differential difficulty of retrieval and placement tasks for the understanding of symbolic development.     

Recognition memory: a review of the critical findings and an integrated theory for relating them

The development of formal models has aided theoretical progress in recognition memory research. Here, I review the findings that are critical for testing them, including behavioral and brain imaging results of single-item recognition, plurality discrimination, and associative recognition experiments under a variety of testing conditions. I also review the major approaches to measurement and process modeling of recognition. The review indicates that several extant dual-process measures of recollection are unreliable, and thus they are unsuitable as a basis for forming strong conclusions. At the process level, however, the retrieval dynamics of recognition memory and the effect of strengthening operations suggest that a recall-to-reject process plays an important role in plurality discrimination and associative recognition, but not necessarily in single-item recognition. A new theoretical framework proposes that the contribution of recollection to recognition depends on whether the retrieval of episodic details improves accuracy, and it organizes the models around the construct of efficiency. Accordingly, subjects adopt strategies that they believe will produce a desired level of accuracy in the shortest amount of time. Several models derived from this framework are shown to account the accuracy, latency, and confidence with which the various recognition tasks are performed.     

Children's knowledge of the earth: a new methodological and statistical approach

In the field of children’s knowledge of the earth, much debate has concerned the question of whether children’s naive knowledge—that is, their knowledge before they acquire the standard scientific theory—is coherent (i.e., theory-like) or fragmented. We conducted two studies with large samples (N = 328 and N = 381) using a new paper-and-pencil test, denoted the EARTH (EArth Representation Test for cHildren), to discriminate between these two alternatives. We performed latent class analyses on the responses to the EARTH to test mental models associated with these alternatives. The naive mental models, as formulated by Vosniadou and Brewer, were not supported by the results. The results indicated that children’s knowledge of the earth becomes more consistent as children grow older. These findings support the view that children’s naive knowledge is fragmented.     

Outcomes as affirmation of membership value: Material compensation as an administrative response to procedural injustice

The current line of research suggests that the provision of compensation by group representatives may be an effective way to address the identity concerns resulting from procedural violations because compensation serves to reaffirm the victim’s membership value, protecting his or her identity. A series of five studies is presented, demonstrating that compensation can function symbolically as a legitimate act of concern for the injustice victim. Results showed that offers of compensation by group representatives resulted in more favorable evaluations of the group and higher identification than when no compensation was offered, but only when the compensation was construed as a benevolent gesture and only when the injustice was identity relevant. Even unsuccessful attempts to compensate the victim resulted in positive reactions towards the group. Consistent with relational models of procedural justice, these effects were mediated by perceptions of membership value.     

MODELING RELATIONS

In the ordinary way of representing relations, the order of the relata plays a structural role, but in the states themselves such an order often does not seem to be intrinsically present. An alternative way to represent relations makes use of positions for the arguments. This is no problem for the love relation, but for relations like the adjacency relation and cyclic relations, different assignments of objects to the positions can give exactly the same states. This is a puzzling situation. The question is what is the internal structure of relations? Is the use of positions still justified, and if so, what is their ontological status? In this paper mathematical models for relations are developed that provide more insight into the structure of relations “out there” in the real world.     

Latent Class Models for Diary Method Data: Parameter Estimation by Local Computations

The increasing use of diary methods calls for the development of appropriate statistical methods. For the resulting panel data, latent Markov models can be used to model both individual differences and temporal dynamics. The computational burden associated with these models can be overcome by exploiting the conditional independence relations implied by the model. This is done by associating a probabilistic model with a directed acyclic graph, and applying transformations to the graph. The structure of the transformed graph provides a factorization of the joint probability function of the manifest and latent variables, which is the basis of a modified and more efficient E-step of the EM algorithm. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by estimating a latent Markov model involving a large number of measurement occasions and, subsequently, a hierarchical extension of the latent Markov model that allows for transitions at different levels. Furthermore, logistic regression techniques are used to incorporate restrictions on the conditional probabilities and to account for the effect of covariates. Throughout, models are illustrated with an experience sampling methodology study on the course of emotions among anorectic patients. Frank Rijmen was partly supported by the Fund for Scientific Research Flanders (FWO).     

Computer simulation through an error-statistical lens

After showing how Deborah Mayo’s error-statistical philosophy of science might be applied to address important questions about the evidential status of computer simulation results, I argue that an error-statistical perspective offers an interesting new way of thinking about computer simulation models and has the potential to significantly improve the practice of simulation model evaluation. Though intended primarily as a contribution to the epistemology of simulation, the analysis also serves to fill in details of Mayo’s epistemology of experiment.     

Re-conceptualizing the past: Historical data in vocational interest research

Noteworthy progress has been made in the development of statistical models for evaluating the structure of vocational interests over the past three decades. It is proposed that historically significant interest datasets, when combined with modern structural methods of data analysis, provide an opportunity to re-examine the underlying assumptions of J.L. Holland’s [Holland, J. L. (1959). A theory of vocational choice. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 6, 35–45; Holland, J. L. (1997). Making vocational choices (3rd ed.). Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources] RIASEC model. To illustrate this potential, data obtained from J. P. Guilford’s study of interest structure were re-analyzed using modern circumplex and hierarchical clustering techniques to evaluate Holland’s and I. Gati’s [Gati, I. (1979). A hierarchical model for the structure of interests. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 15, 90–106; Gati, I. (1991). The structure of vocational interests. Psychological Bulletin, 109, 309–324] interest structures. Obtained results indicate that a circumplex model can be used to effectively represent the structure underlying Guilford’s interest measures. However, hierarchical clustering results suggest that Holland’s RIASEC types may not be the most effective categories for grouping specific interest measures into broader interest areas. The current findings provide support for the continued investigation of alternatives to Holland’s interest categories using modern measures of basic interests.