Counter-Closure

The focus of this paper is the prima facie plausible view, expressed by the principle of Counter-Closure, that knowledge-yielding competent deductive inference must issue from known premises. I construct a case that arguably falsifies this principle and consider five available lines of response that might help retain Counter-Closure. I argue that three are problematic. Of the two remaining lines of response, the first relies on non-universal intuitions and forces one to view the case I construct as exhibiting a justified, true belief to which none of the usual diagnoses of knowledge failure in Gettier cases apply. The second line involves claiming that Fake Barns and its ilk are misdiagnosed by epistemological orthodoxy as Gettier cases. We are thus confronted by a trilemma: either the case I discuss undermines the first-blush plausible principle of Counter-Closure; or the case I discuss instantiates a novel kind of Gettier case; or a popular conception of a key range of alleged Gettier cases must be rejected. No matter which horn we choose, the case points to a philosophically curious conclusion.     

Longitudinal relations among perceived parental warmth,self-esteem and social behaviours from middle childhood to early adolescence in China: Disentangling between- and within-person associations

Although several studies have addressed the relations between perceived parental warmth and social behaviours, few have distinguished their between- and within-person effects or explored their within-person mediating mechanisms. This study examined the transactional relations among perceived parental warmth (i.e. maternal warmth and paternal warmth), children's self-esteem and children's positive/negative social behaviours (i.e. prosocial behaviour and delinquent behaviour) along with the mediating role of self-esteem after disentangling between- and within-person effects. A total of 4315 Chinese elementary children (44.9% girls; M_age = 9.93 years, SD = 0.73) completed relevant measures on four occasions employing 6-month intervals. Results of random-intercept cross-lagged panel models showed that (a) perceived parental warmth reciprocally and positively predicted prosocial behaviour and self-esteem; (b) perceived paternal warmth reciprocally and negatively predicted delinquent behaviour; (c) self-esteem reciprocally predicted prosocial and delinquent behaviour; (d) perceived maternal warmth reciprocally and positively predicted prosocial behaviour through self-esteem; (e) perceived parental warmth reciprocally and negatively predicted delinquent behaviour through self-esteem; and (f) perceived maternal and paternal warmth differed in their relations with prosocial and delinquent behaviours through self-esteem. These findings illuminated the complicated longitudinal within-person interactions among perceived parental warmth, self-esteem, and social behaviours, the specific mediating mechanism of self-esteem, and the differing results associated with perceived maternal and paternal warmth, all of which yield significant implications for assessments and early interventions aimed to promote positive social behaviour.     

Criterion-related construct validity

Established results on latent variable models are applied to the study of the validity of a psychological test. When the test predicts a criterion by measuring a unidimensional latent construct, not only must the total score predict the criterion, but the joint distribution of criterion scores and item responses must exhibit a certain pattern. The presence of this population pattern may be tested with sample data using the stratified Wilcoxon rank sum test. Often, criterion information is available only for selected examinees, for instance, those who are admitted or hired. Three cases are discussed: (i) selection at random, (ii) selection based on the current test, and (iii) selection based on other measures of the latent construct. Discriminant validity is also discussed.This work was supported in part by Grant SES-87-01890 from the Measurement Methods and Data Improvement Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chinese college students' general and relationship‐specific representations of adult attachment: Variable‐centred and person‐centred analysis

Formerly, researchers often treated adult attachment as a trait‐like construct with consistency across relationship contexts. However, recent studies have shown that people possess multiple relationship‐specific attachment representations, and inter‐correlations among them are only in a small‐to‐medium range. The aim of this study is to test whether these variable‐centred results could be replicated in China and further supplement them with a person‐centred analysis focusing on identifying prototypical patterns of multiple working models across relationships. We administrated measurements of general and four relationship‐specific (mother/father/best friend/romantic partner) working models and indicators of psychological adjustment upon 302 Chinese college students. Results from variable‐centred analysis demonstrated the cross‐relationship variability in working models. Furthermore, global indicators of psychological adjustment were better predicted by general models, while relationship‐specific indicators were better predicted by corresponding relationship‐specific models. These results largely replicate previous Western studies, supporting the existence of multiple attachment representations in China. In person‐centred analysis, a latent profile analysis identified four typical classes of working model profiles: all‐average, all‐secure, romantic‐insecure and peer‐secure. These classes differed not only in the cross‐relationship variability of their working models, but also in their levels of psychological adjustment. These interesting patterns may have theoretical implications and are worthy of further examination.     

Understanding memory impairment with memory models and hierarchical Bayesian analysis

The study of human episodic memory is a topic that interests cognitive and mathematical psychologists as well as clinicians interested in the diagnosis and assessment of Alzheimer’s disease and related disorders (ADRD). In this paper, we use simple cognitive models for the recognition and recall tasks typically applied in clinical assessments of ADRD to study memory performance in ADRD patients. Our models make use of hierarchical Bayesian methods as a way to model individual differences in patient performance and to facilitate the modeling of performance changes that occur during multiple recall tasks. We show how the models are able to account for different aspects of patient performance, and also discuss some of the predictive capabilities of the model. We conclude with a discussion on the scope to improve on our results by discussing the link between memory theory in psychology and clinical practice.     

Sex differences in latent cognitive abilities ages 5 to 17: Evidence from the Differential Ability Scales—Second Edition

Sex differences in the latent general and broad cognitive abilities underlying the Differential Ability Scales, Second Edition were investigated for children and youth ages 5 through 17. Multi-group mean and covariance structural equation modeling was used to investigate sex differences in latent cognitive abilities as well as changes in these differences across age. Most broad abilities showed mean differences across the sexes, and all such differences varied across ages. Girls showed an advantage on the processing speed (Gs) first-order residual factor. Girls also showed advantages at some ages on free-recall memory, a narrow ability of long term retrieval (Glr). Boys showed a developmentally-related advantage on a visual-spatial ability (Gv) first-order residual factor, depending on age. Younger girls showed an advantage on short-term memory (Gsm). No statistically significant sex differences were shown on the latent comprehension-knowledge (Gc) factor, or on a second-order, latent g factor. Boys showed larger variances for several broad abilities, some substantial, but those differences were not statistically significant.     

Analyzing pedestrian behavior when crossing urban roads by combining RP and SP data

Considering the high crash rates involving pedestrians on urban roads, it is highly relevant to understanding pedestrian crossing behavior. This paper is the first to combine stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) data to evaluate the impact that individual attributes, trip characteristics, built environment, strategies to prevent unauthorized crossing, and traffic flows have on pedestrians crossing decisions in an urban context. SP and RP surveys were designed and collected in Barranquilla (Colombia) near pedestrian bridges or signalized intersections where direct crossings and a high concentration of pedestrian fatalities related to traffic accidents exist. A logit model was estimated using the data enrichment paradigm. Results show that pedestrians weigh risks and costs when choosing how to cross the road. The trajectories observed in the RP component suggest that people prefer direct crossings; nevertheless, pedestrian bridges and signalized intersections can be attractive alternatives if their location matches the origin or destination of the crossing, and no detour is needed to use them. Waiting time; safety; the fine imposed for jaywalking; personal security, and previous decisions are also variables that influence pedestrian behavior when crossing urban roads. These results can be helpful to urban planners and decision-makers interested in proposing appropriate pedestrian infrastructure. The data pooling technique and the inclusion of a cost-related variable (i.e., fine) allowed computing the willingness to pay and marginal substitution rates for attributes of the built environment and other characteristics associated with the crossing decision. Also, the inclusion of several crossing alternatives and situations allowed assessing pedestrian crossing preferences under different scenarios.     

Transfer effects between moral dilemmas: A causal model theory

Evaluations of analogous situations are an important source for our moral intuitions. A puzzling recent set of findings in experiments exploring transfer effects between intuitions about moral dilemmas has demonstrated a striking asymmetry. Transfer often occurred with a specific ordering of moral dilemmas, but not when the sequence was reversed. In this article we present a new theory of transfer between moral intuitions that focuses on two components of moral dilemmas, namely their causal structure and their default evaluations. According to this theory, transfer effects are expected when the causal models underlying the considered dilemmas allow for a mapping of the highlighted aspect of the first scenario onto the causal structure of the second dilemma, and when the default evaluations of the two dilemmas substantially differ. The theory’s key predictions for the occurrence and the direction of transfer effects between two moral dilemmas are tested in five experiments with various variants of moral dilemmas from different domains. A sixth experiment tests the predictions of the theory for how the target action in the moral dilemmas is represented.