The Idea of an Exact Number: Children's Understanding of Cardinality and Equinumerosity

Understanding what numbers are means knowing several things. It means knowing how counting relates to numbers (called the cardinal principle or cardinality); it means knowing that each number is generated by adding one to the previous number (called the successor function or succession), and it means knowing that all and only sets whose members can be placed in one‐to‐one correspondence have the same number of items (called exact equality or equinumerosity). A previous study (Sarnecka & Carey, 2008) linked children's understanding of cardinality to their understanding of succession for the numbers five and six. This study investigates the link between cardinality and equinumerosity for these numbers, finding that children either understand both cardinality and equinumerosity or they understand neither. This suggests that cardinality and equinumerosity (along with succession) are interrelated facets of the concepts five and six, the acquisition of which is an important conceptual achievement of early childhood.     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

犯罪行为决策的理论与研究方法

犯罪行为是犯罪人决策的结果。犯罪行为决策研究旨在通过运用认知心理学的有关原理,说明犯罪行为实施之前的行为决策过程及影响因素,其成果能为国家制定刑事政策与犯罪预防政策等提供理论依据。犯罪行为决策的理论模型主要可分为犯罪理性模型、犯罪期望效用模型和犯罪前景理论模型。犯罪行为决策的研究方法主要采用心理物理法、过程追踪法、访谈法、投射测验法和犯罪统计法等。展望未来,应进一步探讨犯罪行为决策的理性与非理性问题,并加强对犯罪行为决策的验证性研究。     

角色目标对空间维度非线索更新的影响

采用实时窗口阅读技术,探讨文本阅读中角色目标在情境模型空间维度非线索更新中的作用。实验一结果表明,阅读中。如果文本叙述中的角色在一个目标指引下展开活动．那么可以促进相应空间设置内的物体的更新。实验二考察了不同性质的角色目标在空问信息加工中的作用,结果发现,相对于已经达成的目标,未达成的目标对情境模型空间维度非线索更新的影响更大。     

Explaining after by before: Basic aspects of a dynamic systems approach to the study of development

The basic properties of a dynamic systems approach of development are illustrated by contrasting two simple equations. One, y_t+1 = f (y_t), is characteristic of dynamic systems models. The other, y_i = f (x_i), refers to what, for the sake of simplicity, is referred to as the standard developmental approach. We give illustrations from cognitive, language and social development to show the characteristic differences of these two types of models and show their complementarity. The article further compares the “Bloomington” with the “Groningen” approach to dynamic systems theorizing in developmental psychology. It continues with a discussion of two important questions. One involves the issue of measurement and the nature of developmental variables from the viewpoint of dynamic systems. The second concerns the question of short- and long-term time scales in developmental models, which is discussed on the basis of an example, namely dyadic interaction of young children in the context of different social statuses.     

Translating Toulmin Diagrams: Theory Neutrality in Argument Representation

The Toulmin diagram layout is very familiar and widely used, particularly in the teaching of critical thinking skills. The conventional box-and-arrow diagram is equally familiar and widespread. Translation between the two throws up a number of interesting challenges. Some of these challenges (such as the relationship between Toulmin warrants and their counterparts in traditional diagrams) represent slightly different ways of looking at old and deep theoretical questions. Others (such as how to allow Toulmin diagrams to be recursive) are diagrammatic versions of questions that have already been addressed in artificial intelligence models of argument. But there are further questions (such as the relationships between refutations, rebuttals and undercutters, and the roles of multiple warrants) that are posed as a specific result of examining the diagram inter-translation problem. These three classes of problems are discussed. To the first class are addressed solutions based on engineering pragmatism; to the second class, are addressed solutions drawn from the appropriate literature; and to the third class, fuller exploration is offered justifying the approaches taken in developing solutions that offer both pragmatic utility and theoretical interest. Finally, these solutions are explored briefly in the context of the Araucaria system, showing the ways in which analysts can tackle arguments either using one diagrammatic style or another, or even a combination of the two.     

THEOLOGY AND PHYSICS FORTY YEARS LATER

Abstract. Almost forty years later I look back on a 1966 article on theology and physics by Sanford Brown and my response published with it. I reflect on his hope that theological seminaries would give attention to the methods used in scientific inquiry. I compare our comments with subsequent thought on three issues: (1) the role of models in science and religion; (2) the relation of wholes to parts in physics and other sciences and the debate over reductionism and emergence; and (3) the implications of quantum physics for theology, including the possibility of divine action at the quantum level.     

Trajectories of Parenting Processes and Adolescent Substance Use: Reciprocal Effects

Drawing on transactional theories of child development, we assessed bidirectional links between trajectories of adolescent substance use and parenting processes from early through mid adolescence. Hierarchical generalized models estimated trajectories for 3,317 adolescents from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, exploring both between- and within-individual effects. Between individuals, adolescents reporting more regular family activities and greater father and mother knowledge of friends and teachers experienced lower levels of substance use through mid adolescence. Similarly, adolescents with more frequent substance use reported lower family activities, father knowledge, and mother knowledge, though these differences dissipated over time. More conservative within-individual differences indicated a prospective protective effect of family activities, with increases in adolescent participation in family activities predicting later declines in substance use. Results support the central importance of engagement in regular family activities, and suggest the need for further exploration of transactional processes between parents and children in the development of risk behaviors.     

文本加工中情境模型建构的五个维度

情境模型理论是当代西方文本阅读加工的一个重要理论。该文通过详细介绍情境模型建构的空间、时间、因果、主人公、意图五大维度,以助于对情境模型理论整体理解。通过总结可知,目前国内外关于情境模型建构中的空间、因果和主人公三个维度的研究成果较多,研究范式也较为成熟,时间和意图维度则研究成果较少