概率判断中的合取谬误

概率判断中的合取谬误是指违反事件发生概率的合取规则而认为包含多个独立事件的复合事件的发生可能性大于其中某些事件的发生可能性的一种概率判断偏差现象。合取谬误的界定存在一定争议, 相关的解释机制有因果模型理论、确认理论、惊奇理论等, 影响合取谬误的因素有频率效应、训练效应以及个体差异等等。未来研究应联系逆转合取谬误的心理机制来完善已有的理论, 同时注意应用研究以及其非理性的探讨。     

基于多传感器数据的航空管制员情境意识的计算

航空管制人员保持良好的情境意识是确保空中交通以安全、高效方式运行的必要条件。如果在管制员工作过程中, 能准确监测其情境意识状态, 并在情境意识丧失前给予及时告警, 那么将会极大地提高管制绩效和减少空中两机相撞的概率。目前, 国外评价管制员情境意识的方法虽然不少, 但这些方法基本都是诊断性质和回溯性质的, 无法对管制员的情境意识进行监测或预警。管制员的情境意识受个体差异、任务等多种因素的影响, 同时, 其也可以由某些指标来表征, 如某些作业绩效指标和生理指标。为了能够实现对航空管制员情境意识的准确监控及告警, 拟通过雷达管制模拟实验、心理测量、专家评定等方法采集多传感器数据, 分别建立基于表征指标和基于影响变量的情境意识计算模型, 并比较其预测性能。该研究结果可为管制员情境意识的实时监测提供支持。     

From aggressiveness to creativity

Psychology has a long tradition of considering human creativity as a distinct human characteristic and a special kind of human activity. After explaining the key motives for such an attitude, the author discusses those forms of healthy aggressiveness that stand out as necessary and constitutive elements of the creative process. Taking the well-known statement of C. G. Jung's 'The person who does not build (create), will demolish and destroy' as a starting point, the author compares the basic premises for understanding the process of human creativity, at the same time drawing on Freud's psychology of the individual and Jung's principle of the collective unconscious as well as his notion of 'complexes'. In doing so, the author somewhat boldly paraphrases Jung's dictum: 'In order to be creative, rather than just constructive, one must occasionally also destroy'. With reference to Wallas, Taylor and Neumann (Wallas 1926; Taylor 1959;;Neumann 2001), the author goes on to explore those concepts which help us to investigate the phenomenon of human creativity, drawing distinctions between emergent, expressive, productive, inventive and innovative creativity. The second part of the article discusses the importance of intelligence, originality, nonconformity, subversiveness and free-mindedness for the creative process of human beings. The author concludes with a further explanation of Erich Neumann's argument that human creativity cannot be understood solely as a result of sociogenetic factors, and argues that it is only by taking into consideration Jung's perception of creativity that a global ontological understanding of these processes can be achieved.     

Paradoxical drug response and the placebo effect: a discussion of Grunbaum's definitional scheme

Grunbaum claims that the remedial failure of atreatment's characteristic factors is thegeneric, objective property of a placebo. Hestipulates that a treatment is placebic if thisremedial failure exacerbates the targetdisorder. This stipulation can subsume asplacebic effects that might be solelypharmacological, e.g., paradoxical reactions tocertain psychiatric drugs. If that exacerbationcan be explained pharmacologically, then wemight question whether Grunbaum's definitionalscheme captures the core identity of what weusually intend by the placebo concept. Ipropose that this core identity is bestcaptured by a symbolic meaning hypothesis inwhich psychological factors exert thedeterminative influence.     

Psychotherapy Integration: Contributions from Lifestyle Theory

The lifestyle theory of intervention is evaluated with respect to its status as an integrated psychotherapy using theoretical integration, technical eclecticism, and the common factors approach as criteria. Because lifestyle theory integrates concepts from evolutionary biology, existential philosophy, cognitive psychology, social learning theory, and various therapeutic models it satisfies preliminary criteria for theoretical integration. To the extent that it provides an internally consistent model and makes use of techniques from disparate schools of psychotherapy, it adopts a technical eclectic approach to intervention. The lifestyle model also appears to qualify as an integrated psychotherapy by virtue of its attention to several common factors in psychotherapy.     

THEORETICAL,PRACTICAL, AND SOCIAL ISSUES IN BEHAVIORAL TREATMENTS OF OBESITY

Although showing superior maintenance, behavioral treatments of obesity typically produce small weight losses at a decelerating rate. Rather than reflecting poor compliance with treatment, these findings are consistent with known compensatory metabolic changes that operate to slow weight loss and promote regain. Other problems associated with dieting include failure of caloric regulation, hyper-responsivity to food palatability, and hunger, which is greatest under conditions of moderate restriction and unpredictability of access to food. The inevitability of treatment failure in many instances must be faced and efforts made to prevent further worsening of the obese patient's self-esteem. Prognosis and treatment planning may be aided by consideration of the historical difficulties of weight loss, the degree of hunger experienced on diets, which may reflect important physiological differences among individuals, and the use of food to optimize arousal level. Full involvement of the patient in setting goals and planning treatment is recommended.     

Correlates and Prognosis in Relation to Participation in Social Activities Among Older People Living in a Community in Osaka, Japan

To examine the factors associated with social participation and to determine whether social participation is predictive of mortality, a cohort of 1405 randomly selected older people aged 65 years and over, living in Settsu, Osaka Prefecture, was followed up for 66 months. By multivariate analysis using logistic regression, female sex, older age, disability, medical treatment, no use of health checks, no daily preventive health practices, and no life worth living (no Ikigai) were independent risk factors for no participation in social activities. From the analysis using the Kaplan–Meier method, the cumulative survival rates were higher among those who took part in social activities than among those who did not in both age groups, 65–74 years and 75 years and older, for men and women. Application of the Cox proportional hazards model resulted in adjusted hazard ratio of no participation in social activities for mortality of 1.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.11–2.11), controlling for other potential factors. These results suggest that participation in social activities is closely associated with health and psychosocial conditions and may be an independent risk factor for mortality among community-residing older people.     

Therapeutic factors in interactional inpatient groups: Results from a Turkish sample

Therapeutic factors in an inpatient group from Turkey are presented. A total of 40 patients were seen over a period of 2 years and each patient was given Yalom's (1983) 60-item therapeutic factor list on discharge. The first four most valued therapeutic factor groups were Catharsis, Existential Factors, Cohesiveness and Hope. There were significant differences in the highly valued factors in different diagnostic groups. Patients with diagnoses of anxiety/somatization and borderline/identity problem preferred factors resembling those in many out-patient studies. The results are discussed in the light of relevant literature.     

Coping Styles,Pain Expressiveness,and Implicit Theories of Chronic Pain

Whereas some individuals use active coping strategies and are able to adaptively cope with their pain, others use passive strategies and catastrophic appraisals, which are often associated with increased displays of pain behavior and negative pain-related outcomes. To investigate attribution-based implicit theories as a potential underlying mechanism that might affect coping success, we hypothesized that pain patients with an incremental implicit theory of pain (i.e., view pain as malleable) would have more active coping strategies, lower levels of pain expressiveness, and better pain-related outcomes than those with an entity implicit theory of pain (i.e., view pain as nonmalleable). Patients with chronic back pain undergoing a functional assessment completed a variety of self-report measures and participated in a pain-inducing physiotherapy procedure. The results revealed those with an incremental theory of pain used more active coping strategies, displayed less pain behavior, and reported better pain-related outcomes (e.g., lower levels of depression) than individuals with an entity theory of pain. The findings suggest implicit theories of pain may represent an underlying social-cognitive mechanism linked to important coping, emotional, and expressive reactions to chronic pain. Identifying such a mechanism may provide valuable information for the assessment and treatment of chronic pain.     

影响警察工作积极性因素的研究

本研究在访谈的基础上 ,通过试测初步确定影响警察工作积极性的3 7个项目 ,并对杭州市部分警察进行抽样问卷调查 ,因素分析结果表明 ,影响警察工作积极性的 7个主要因素分别为 :1家庭环境与人际关系 ,2领导作风 ,3工作条件 ,4个人发展 ,5工作忧虑 ,6经济利益 ,7管理制度。调查结果还表明 ,影响警察工作积极性的较重要的 8个项目依次是 :住房紧张 ,工资收入低 ,福利较差 ,劳动保障差 ,领导言行不一 ,付出的劳动与收入不平衡 ,工作条件差 ,管理制度不健全。研究还发现家庭环境与人际关系、经济利益两个因素对警察工作积极性的影响存在警种之间的差异。本研究在分析的基础上建议从以下三个方面激励警察工作积极性 :1提高警察生活保障水平 ,改善警察工作条件 ;2改进领导工作作风 ,提高领导管理者的水平 ,完善管理制度 ;3提供警察个人发展的机会 ,促进警察工作能力和自身素质的提高。