Premature conclusions about the signal-to-noise ratio in structural equation modeling research: A commentary on Yuan and Fang (2023)

In a recent article published in this journal, Yuan and Fang (British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, 2023) suggest comparing structural equation modeling (SEM), also known as covariance-based SEM (CB-SEM), estimated by normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML), to regression analysis with (weighted) composites estimated by least squares (LS) in terms of their signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). They summarize their findings in the statement that “[c]ontrary to the common belief that CB-SEM is the preferred method for the analysis of observational data, this article shows that regression analysis via weighted composites yields parameter estimates with much smaller standard errors, and thus corresponds to greater values of the [SNR].” In our commentary, we show that Yuan and Fang have made several incorrect assumptions and claims. Consequently, we recommend that empirical researchers not base their methodological choice regarding CB-SEM and regression analysis with composites on the findings of Yuan and Fang as these findings are premature and require further research.     

“均”与“寡”阶段性变动下中国居民公平感的变迁

利用中国综合社会调查和中国社会状况综合调查重复截面数据,通过年龄-时期-队列模型对居民公平感的时代变化进行分析。研究发现公平感在年龄上呈“J”型趋势;从时期效应看, 2008年公平感较高, 2010～2013年在低谷徘徊,2015年以后又开始回升;从队列视角看,建国前出生队列公平感偏低,建国后初期的队列相对较高,“50”后有所下滑,从“60”后开始公平感持续走低,到“80”后跌入低谷,但“90”后又开始升高。从1949年前后“寡且不均”到建国初期阶段的“寡且均”,再到改革开放40年快速经济增长下“不寡但不均”的社会变迁过程影响了居民的公平感。     

Stolen elections: How conspiracy beliefs during the 2020 American presidential elections changed over time

Conspiracy beliefs have been studied mostly through cross-sectional designs. We conducted a five-wave longitudinal study (N = 376; two waves before and three waves after the 2020 American presidential elections) to examine if the election results influenced specific conspiracy beliefs and conspiracy mentality, and whether effects differ between election winners (i.e., Biden voters) versus losers (i.e., Trump voters) at the individual level. Results revealed that conspiracy mentality kept unchanged over 2 months, providing first evidence that this indeed is a relatively stable trait. Specific conspiracy beliefs (outgroup and ingroup conspiracy beliefs) did change over time, however. In terms of group-level change, outgroup conspiracy beliefs decreased over time for Biden voters but increased for Trump voters. Ingroup conspiracy beliefs decreased over time across all voters, although those of Trump voters decreased faster. These findings illuminate how specific conspiracy beliefs are, and conspiracy mentality is not, influenced by an election event.     

Self-control: An integrative framework

Research on self-control has flourished within the last two decades, with many researchers trying to answer one of the most fundamental questions regarding human behaviour—how do we successfully regulate desires in the pursuit of long-term goals? While recent research has focused on different strategies to enhance self-control success, we still know very little about how strategies are implemented or where the need for self-control comes from in the first place. Drawing from parallel fields (e.g., emotion regulation, health) and other theories of self-regulation, we propose an integrative framework that describes self-control as a dynamic, multi-stage process that unfolds over time. In this review, we first provide an overview of this framework, which poses three stages of regulation: the identification of the need for self-control, the selection of strategies to regulate temptations, and the implementation of chosen strategies. These regulatory stages are then flexibly monitored over time. We then expand this framework by outlining a series of growth points to guide future research. By bridging across theories and disciplines, the present framework improves our understanding of how self-control unfolds in everyday life.     

Testing a stochastic foraging model in an operant simulation: Agreement with qualitative but not quantitative predictions

An operant simulation of foraging through baited and empty patches was studied with 4 pigeons. On a three-key panel, side keys were designated as patches, and successive opportunities to complete 16 fixed-ratio 10 schedules on side keys were defined as encounters with feeders. In a random half of the patches in any session, some of the fixed-ratio 10 schedules yielded reinforcement (baited feeders) and the other schedules yielded nonreinforcement (empty feeders). In the other half of the patches, all feeders were empty. Pigeons could travel between patches at any time by completing a fixed-ratio schedule on the center key. An optimal foraging model was tested in Experiments 1 and 2 by varying center-key travel time and number of baited feeders in baited patches. The ordinal predictions that number of feeders visited in empty patches would increase with travel time and decrease as number of baited feeders increased were supported, but pigeons visited far more feeders in empty patches than the optimal number predicted by the model to maximize energy/time. In Experiment 3, evidence was found to suggest that the number of empty feeders encountered before the first baited feeder in baited patches is an important factor controlling leaving empty patches.     

The many null distributions of person fit indices

This paper deals with the situation of an investigator who has collected the scores ofn persons to a set ofk dichotomous items, and wants to investigate whether the answers of all respondents are compatible with the one parameter logistic test model of Rasch. Contrary to the standard analysis of the Rasch model, where all persons are kept in the analysis and badly fittingitems may be removed, this paper studies the alternative model in which a small minority ofpersons has an answer strategy not described by the Rasch model. Such persons are called anomalous or aberrant. From the response vectors consisting ofk symbols each equal to 0 or 1, it is desired to classify each respondent as either anomalous or as conforming to the model. As this model is probabilistic, such a classification will possibly involve false positives and false negatives. Both for the Rasch model and for other item response models, the literature contains several proposals for a person fit index, which expresses for each individual the plausibility that his/her behavior follows the model. The present paper argues that such indices can only provide a satisfactory solution to the classification problem if their statistical distribution is known under the null hypothesis that all persons answer according to the model. This distribution, however, turns out to be rather different for different values of the person's latent trait value. This value will be called ability parameter, although our results are equally valid for Rasch scales measuring other attributes.As the true ability parameter is unknown, one can only use its estimate in order to obtain an estimated person fit value and an estimated null hypothesis distribution. The paper describes three specifications for the latter: assuming that the true ability equals its estimate, integrating across the ability distribution assumed for the population, and conditioning on the total score, which is in the Rasch model the sufficient statistic for the ability parameter.Classification rules for aberrance will be worked out for each of the three specifications. Depending on test length, item parameters and desired accuracy, they are based on the exact distribution, its Monte Carlo estimate and a new and promising approximation based on the moments of the person fit statistic. Results for the likelihood person fit statistic are given in detail, the methods could also be applied to other fit statistics. A comparison of the three specifications results in the recommendation to condition on the total score, as this avoids some problems of interpretation that affect the other two specifications.The authors express their gratitude to the reviewers and to many colleagues for comments on an earlier version.     

Modeling item responses when different subjects employ different solution strategies

A model is presented for item responses when different subjects employ different strategies, but only responses, not choice of strategy, can be observed. Using substantive theory to differentiate the likelihoods of response vectors under a fixed set of strategies, we model response probabilities in terms of item parameters for each strategy, proportions of subjects employing each strategy, and distributions of subject proficiency within strategies. The probabilities that an individual subject employed the various strategies can then be obtained, along with a conditional estimate of proficiency under each. A conceptual example discusses response strategies for spatial rotation tasks, and a numerican example resolves a population of subjects into subpopulations of valid responders and random guessers.The first author's work was supported by Contract No. N00014-85-K-0683, project designation NR 150-539, from the Cognitive Science Program, Cognitive and Neural Sciences Division, Office of Naval Research. We are grateful to Murray Aitkin, Isaac Bejar, Neil Dorans, Frederiksen, and Marklyn Wingersky for their comments and suggestions, and to Alison Gooding, Maxine Kingston, Donna Lembeck, Joling Liang, and Kentaro Yamamoto for their assistance with Example 2.     

分时距认知特点的研究

本研究探讨了分时距估计的认知特点,检验了SS模型、PT模型和CS模型的预测效度,结果表明：分时距估计主要是在信息提取阶段采用分段推算策略对时间信息进行重建的过程,变化／分割和注意分配对分时距估计有显著影响;SS模型的预测效度最低,PT、CS模型的预测效度较高。     

小学儿童对习俗时间的周期性特点的认知

本研究探讨了小学儿童对习俗时间周期性特点的认知发展．实验任务是让被试判断两个给定日期之间的时间距离是正向接近还是反向接近。结果表明:儿童对习俗时间的周期性特点的认知成绩随年龄增长而不断提高;随着两个日期之间距离的增大,反应时不断增加,正确率不断降低,在两个日期相互接近的方向发生改变的边界处,反应时最长,正确率最低,表现出显著的“距离效应”和“边界效应”;儿童可以利用数字系统进行判断,他们的认知加工策略包括计数、数字运算和凭借习俗时间的空间表象进行模拟加工等等。