Comparing What to What,on What Scale? The Impact of Item Comparisons and Reference Points in Communicating Risk and Uncertainty

The mandated public availability of individual hospital's audit data for children's heart surgery in the UK creates a challenging scenario for communicating these complex and sensitive data to diverse audiences. On the basis of this scenario, we conducted three experiments with the aim of understanding how best to help lay people understand these data and the practical goal of improving the public presentation of these data. The experiments compared different outcome measures for displaying the survival rate (percentage scale versus the ratio of the predicted/observed rates) and presentation formats (individual hospital versus all hospitals shown) for outcomes data presented relative to prediction intervals generated by a risk model that adjusts for case mix. Our data highlight how easily inappropriate comparisons can influence evaluations of complex data: for instance, both a survival ratio of 1 and the presence of other hospitals seemingly provided reference points that resulted in inappropriately harsh evaluations of some hospitals. By drawing on evaluability theory, we demonstrate how to enhance people's understanding of these complex data while also discouraging inappropriate comparisons, which has implications for communicating risk and uncertainty and for choice architecture design in a range of contexts. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Representing ethical reality: a guide for worldly non-naturalists

Abstract

Ethical realists hold (i) that our ethical concepts, thoughts, and claims are in the business of representing ethical reality, by representing evaluative or normative properties and facts as aspects of reality, and (ii) that such representations are at least sometimes accurate. Non-naturalist realists add the further claim that ethical properties and facts are ultimately non-natural, though they are nonetheless worldly. My aim is threefold: to elucidate the sort of representation involved in ethical evaluation on realist views; to clarify what exactly is represented and how non-naturalism comes into the picture for non-naturalists; and to defend worldly non-naturalism against some objections. The first question addressed is how we should model evaluation on any realist view, which should in turn guide the identification of which properties and facts are credibly regarded as ‘evaluative’ ones. Then the question is: what role might non-natural properties and facts play, and how are they related to what is represented in ethical evaluation? Once that is clear, we will be in a position to answer certain objections to non-naturalist realism from Jackson, Gibbard, Bedke, and Dreier. I argue that the objections all mischaracterize the role played by non-natural properties and facts on plausible versions of non-naturalist realism.     

Development and psychometric evaluation of a rapid intimate partner violence perpetration screening tool

Current methods of identifying intimate partner violence (IPV) perpetration rely upon lengthy screening instruments, partner injury, and legal involvement. There exist no viable, brief screening tools to facilitate the rapid and early identification of IPV perpetration. The development of a brief IPV screening tool would reduce participant burden and compensation in research as well as aid in self‐identification and appropriate consultation for treatment. Three samples were recruited and administered an IPV assessment measure. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine a critical subset of items that could be rapidly administered and used to accurately detect physical IPV perpetrators. A set of four items emerged that were capable of differentiating between partner violent and nonviolent participants in Samples 1 (the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) = .95, SE = .02), 2 (AUC = .98, SE =.01), and 3 (AUC = .94, SE = .04). Internal consistency of the screening items was acceptable across samples and the scores on the screening tool were significantly associated in the expected direction with all assessed risk factors for IPV. Initial evaluation of the rapid IPV perpetration screening tool suggests that it may help satisfy the growing need to quickly determine research eligibility and to help college students self‐identify risk, offering objective data upon which to base the decision for follow‐up consultation.

     

The Youth Public Arts Program: Interpersonal and Intrapersonal Outcomes for At-Risk Youth

This article provides the findings of a program evaluation of the Youth Public Arts Program, a long-standing community-based art program that serves at-risk youth in eastern North Carolina. The program evaluation was undertaken to examine the art skills, social and interpersonal skills, and community involvement of the participants. The study included four focus groups and telephone surveys with a total of 38 stakeholders (program participants, parents of participants, program staff, and referral sources). Results indicated that the at-risk youth had gains in both interpersonal and intrapersonal skills, including family relationships, peer relationships, community interaction, increased art skills, confidence, and self-regulation. This article adds to the very limited literature on community-based art programs for youth.     

Property and prejudice: How racial attitudes and social‐evaluative concerns shape property appraisals

Property evaluations rarely occur in the absence of social context. However, no research has investigated how intergroup processes related to prejudice extend to concepts of property. In the present research, we propose that factors such as group status, prejudice and pressure to mask prejudiced attitudes affect how people value the property of racial ingroup and outgroup members. In Study 1, White American and Asian American participants were asked to appraise a hand‐painted mug that was ostensibly created by either a White or an Asian person. Asian participants demonstrated an ingroup bias. White participants showed an outgroup bias, but this effect was qualified. Specifically, among White participants, higher racism towards Asian Americans predicted higher valuations of mugs created by Asian people. Study 2 revealed that White Americans' prejudice towards Asian Americans predicted higher valuations of the mug created by an Asian person only when participants were highly concerned about conveying a non‐prejudiced personal image. Our results suggest that, ironically, prejudiced majority group members evaluate the property of minority group members whom they dislike more favourably. The current findings provide a foundation for melding intergroup relations research with research on property and ownership.     

Skeptical Appeal: The Source‐Content Bias

Radical skepticism is the view that we know nothing or at least next to nothing. Nearly no one actually believes that skepticism is true. Yet it has remained a serious topic of discussion for millennia and it looms large in popular culture. What explains its persistent and widespread appeal? How does the skeptic get us to doubt what we ordinarily take ourselves to know? I present evidence from two experiments that classic skeptical arguments gain potency from an interaction between two factors. First, people evaluate inferential belief more harshly than perceptual belief. Second, people evaluate inferential belief more harshly when its content is negative (i.e., that something is not the case) than when it is positive (i.e., that something is the case). It just so happens that potent skeptical arguments tend to focus our attention on negative inferential beliefs, and we are especially prone to doubt that such beliefs count as knowledge. That is, our cognitive evaluations are biased against this specific combination of source and content. The skeptic sows seeds of doubt by exploiting this feature of our psychology.     

State‐Trace Analysis: Dissociable Processes in a Connectionist Network?

Some argue the common practice of inferring multiple processes or systems from a dissociation is flawed (Dunn, 2003). One proposed solution is state‐trace analysis (Bamber, 1979), which involves plotting, across two or more conditions of interest, performance measured by either two dependent variables, or two conditions of the same dependent measure. The resulting analysis is considered to provide evidence that either (a) a single process underlies performance (one function is produced) or (b) there is evidence for more than one process (more than one function is produced). This article reports simulations using the simple recurrent network (SRN; Elman, 1990) in which changes to the learning rate produced state‐trace plots with multiple functions. We also report simulations using a single‐layer error‐correcting network that generate plots with a single function. We argue that the presence of different functions on a state‐trace plot does not necessarily support a dual‐system account, at least as typically defined (e.g. two separate autonomous systems competing to control responding); it can also indicate variation in a single parameter within theories generally considered to be single‐system accounts.     

The perceived helpfulness of rendering emotional first aid via email

The present research examined the perceived helpfulness of an increasingly widespread mode of psychological assistance, namely, emotional first aid via email. The sample comprised 62 naturally occurring email interactions between distressful clients and trained volunteers operating within the framework of the Israeli Association for Emotional First Aid. Data were gathered by means of a structured questionnaire and open-ended questions so as to examine the clients' motivation to seek help via email and evaluate their satisfaction with the responses obtained. The results revealed a preference for written communication and the accessibility of assistance to be the most frequent reasons for clients to choose the medium of email. Most clients found the responses to be helpful in providing emotional support, enhancing cognitive change and suggesting practical ways of coping. Women perceived the assistance to be more helpful than men did. The results are discussed in terms of the unique value of email as an agent of mental health assistance.     

Comparison of three systems for psychotechnical assessment used in Turkey

The aim of this study was to compare three different psychotechnical test batteries in Turkey (Act and React Test system – ART2020, TRAFIKENT, and Vienna Test System) which are used to evaluate safe driving-related ability traits and to evaluate the construct validity of the tests included in these three test systems that claim to measure the same cognitive structures. Therefore, 176 drivers (19–63 years old), who owned a driving license for at least one year and had driven at least 5000 km, were tested in all three systems. Both professional and amateur drivers as well as drivers whose licenses were detained due to speeding, DWI or other violations were included in order to form a heterogeneous and representative sample for the Turkish driver population. Participants completed the three psychotechnical batteries which tested their cognitive and psychomotor skills in a period of two or three days. The analysis of the findings revealed that the three batteries were more compatible for some cognitive abilities whereas they were less compatible for other abilities. For instance, there were higher similarities among the systems in skills such as reasoning, visual memory, and attention, while there were lower similarities in terms of reaction speed, visual continuity, coordination, speed distance estimation, and visual field. The results were discussed and evaluated so as to improve traffic safety in Turkey, and further suggestions for enhancement in traffic situations followed.