Higher investment levels into pre-planned routes increase the adherence of pedestrians to them

Extensive research has focused on identifying the principles in pedestrian route choice, often assuming that pedestrians follow an optimal route measured by factors, such as route length and busyness. However, the question of the extent to which pedestrians adhere to their planned route has not been convincingly resolved. Here, we form the hypothesis that the more pedestrians invest into a planned route by walking further along it, the bigger their tendency to stick to this route, even when it becomes less attractive than other options due to congestion, for example. We term this behaviour “route commitment effect” and conduct an online survey with over 300 participants to test and establish the existence of this effect. We propose a novel model to formalise this effect. Using simulations of our model, we give illustrative examples for the consequences of the route commitment effect. Our findings suggest that the route commitment effect can significantly influence pedestrian route choice in a simple scenario with only two possible routes. In more complex scenarios with many routes, the impact of the route commitment effect on the overall dynamics is much weaker, as pedestrians are distributed across routes. In general, we find that the route commitment effect reduces the efficiency of pedestrian flow and leads to more predictable pedestrian dynamics. Our study sheds light on the role of cognitive bias in pedestrian decision-making and may thus be helpful for facility design or operations.     

“Going through a little bit of growing pains”: A qualitative study of the factors that influence the route choice of regular bicyclists in a developing cycling city

As cities make concerted efforts to become more bicycle-friendly through policy changes and infrastructure, it is important that such efforts ultimately support people who currently bicycle and remove barriers that may prevent more people from bicycling. Travel surveys can reveal the nature and distribution of bicycling trips, but perceptions and behaviours of bicyclists are better understood through qualitative methods. In particular, developing cycling cities are unique settings to examine how the built environment supports bicycling as changes are made to increase bicycling levels. Through semi-structured interviews, this research explores the case of Hamilton, Ontario and the factors that influence route choice from the perspective of regular bicyclists. Major themes were identified using thematic analysis: (i) exclusion from road space; (ii) infrastructure; and (iii) streetscape. Bicyclists highly value infrastructure and seek routes that minimize interactions with cars, while avoiding many arterial roads that prioritize motorists. Routes that appear to be more human-oriented or that have nature are also attractive. Many regular bicyclists report that current bicycle infrastructure does not meet their preferences. Despite building nearly half of the planned infrastructure network, our findings suggest the built environment is not perceived to be oriented to bicycling. This study provides policy and practice recommendations for developing cycling cities in North America as they transition towards established cycling cities.     

个体采纳与群体采纳：决策过程中的两类建议采纳行为

决策者借助外界的建议通常能够获得更好的决策结果, 但是个体和群体对待建议的态度和行为却不尽相同。基于已有研究, 阐述了个体和群体在建议采纳过程中的特点并分析了造成二者差异的因素, 主要包括二者在面对决策任务和外界建议时的不同表现。此外, 根据群体动力理论, 未来研究可以从群体的动力源因素(凝聚力, 驱动力, 耗散力)来解释和预测群体的建议采纳及其与个体建议采纳的差异, 以期为不同决策情景下决策人员的合理安排和配置提供参考。     

决策过程中的建议采纳

建议采纳是指决策者参考他人建议并形成最终决策的过程。在过去的20年中,建议采纳研究集中探讨了三方面问题：（1）评判者多大程度上采纳了他人建议;（2）他人建议对决策质量的提升作用;（3）建议者和评判者在决策中的信心。本文首先介绍了建议采纳研究的实验范式,并从测量方法和研究成果两方面对上述三个问题进行回顾。未来的研究应注意丰富“建议”的外延、关注“建议者”角色、拓展决策任务、并探讨情绪在建议采纳过程中的作用。     

Drivers’ self-reported responses to a potentially realistic fabricated road sign message

This article seeks to understand the potential response of drivers when they encounter compromised Dynamic Message Signs (DMS). The findings are built on the self-reported response of 4,706 participants in a Stated Preference (SP) survey conducted between November 2018 and December 2018 in the United States. The findings show the response of drivers to the “Downtown Under Terrorist Attack” message falls into route divergence, speed change, and distraction, and the likelihood of route divergence, distraction, and a slowdown is significantly more than either stopping or speeding up. The possibility of a response, however, varies depending on socioeconomic characteristics, attitudinal characteristics, and driving behavior. It is highlighted (1) female and young drivers are more probable to detour, to change speed, or to be distracted, (2) drivers who are familiar with DMS, encounter it frequently, or pay attention to its content, have a higher chance of detouring or changing speed, while they are less likely to be distracted, and (3) technology-friendly drivers are likely to detour or slow down. From the distraction model, it is further inferred that drivers are distracted cognitively, visually, and manually. The findings have implications for researchers and federal, state, and local agencies who are aware of the consequences of cybersecurity threats for the operation and profitability of the transport network. They, for example, assist transport planners in prioritizing equipment security efforts and resource allocation to the areas of greatest risk, and help to prepare contingency plans based on drivers’ behavioral response.     

Exploiting the Wisdom of Others to Make Better Decisions: Suspending Judgment Reduces Egocentrism and Increases Accuracy

Although decision makers often consult other people's opinions to improve their decisions, they fail to do so optimally. One main obstacle to incorporating others' opinions efficiently is one's own opinion. We theorize that decision makers could improve their performance by suspending their own judgment. In three studies, participants used others' opinions to estimate uncertain quantities (the caloric value of foods). In the full‐view condition, participants could form independent estimates prior to receiving others' opinions, whereas participants in the blindfold condition could not form prior opinions. We obtained an intriguing blindfold effect. In all studies, the blindfolded participants provided more accurate estimates than did the full‐view participants. Several policy‐capturing measures indicated that the advantage of the blindfolded participants was due to their unbiased weighting of others' opinions. The full‐view participants, in contrast, adhered to their prior opinion and thus failed to exploit the information contained in others' opinions. Moreover, in all three studies, the blindfolded participants were not cognizant of their advantage and expressed less confidence in their estimates than did the full‐view participants. The results are discussed in relation to theories of opinion revision and group decision making. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multidimensional Latent Classification of ‘Street Robbery’ Offences

In a recent study of personal robbery, commissioned by the Home Office in the UK, a qualitative typology of robbery offences was proposed based on the approach used by the offender to commit the crime, consisting of four approach types: Blitz, Confrontation, Con, and Snatch. Conceptual inspection of the typology reveals that these proposed types may be hypothetically demarcated as the product of two latent dimensions: interaction (between the offender and the victim) and violence (used to threaten/harm the victim). The current paper utilises crime scene information from 72 incarcerated male offenders convicted of ‘street’ robbery to test this hypothesis. Convergent statistical analysis was utilised to test the structure of Smith's typology first using multidimensional scaling (MDS) and then principal component analysis (PCA). MDS and PCA analyses provided convergent support for the existence of the four robbery styles and the latent dimensions of interaction and violence. Implications of Smith's typological structure and latent behavioural dimensions on the conceptualisation and classification of robbery offences are discussed within the existing literature on ‘street’ robbery. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analyzing the role of culture in shaping American childhood: A twentieth-century case

Widespread beliefs about the nature and functions of children change over time, and affect actual treatment of children within and without the family. Significant changes in beliefs about children developed in the United States from the 1920s onward, with emphasis both on emotional value and on weakness or vulnerability. Increased consumption of expert advice played a key role in this shift, along with cultural translation of new issues concerning child labor and schooling. Key changes occurred in all industrial societies, but American culture generated some distinctive features that continue to show up in the anxieties many parents harbor about children and their effort to intervene on their children's behalf.     

Accounting for sensation seeking in route choice behavior with travel time information

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that latent variables, with the focus on sensation seeking concepts, incorporated in new technique of route choice modeling, improve our analyzing of route choice behavior with pre-trip travel time information. The application of a hybrid discrete choice model framework integrates a latent variable model and a route choice model by combining their measurement and structural equations. The model is estimated based on data from a laboratory experiment and a field study of a simple network. The results show that certain sensation seeking domains (e.g., thrill and adventure seeking) alongside traditional variables (e.g., travel time information) enrich our understanding and provide more insight into route choice behavior. Furthermore, observed personal variables, such as gender and marital status, may serve as causal indicators to sensation seeking variables.     

Cyclists' perception of cycling infrastructure – A Repertory Grid approach

Previous research indicate that cyclists prefer safe and comfortable infrastructure. However, concepts like safety or comfort may be understood and defined in different ways by different individuals. Moreover, these concepts are so broad that it is unclear to which specific characteristics of the traffic infrastructure they are linked. Therefore, the aim of this study is to inductively examine individual evaluation criteria that cyclists use to perceive and evaluate certain route attributes. Using the Repertory Grid technique, we elicited the personal constructs of 23 participants about given route attributes and asked them to rate every attribute on every construct. The constructs were categorized and clustered resulting in five evaluation criteria, namely Mental Comfort, Physical Comfort, Interaction, Environment, and Ease of Use. Both comfort clusters were rated the most relevant for route choice, but they strengthen the suggestion of two distinct aspects of comfort, one referring to mental stress, the other referring to physical effort. Furthermore, the analyses revealed Interaction as a relatively new route criterion which also raises a new view on the negative evaluation of motor traffic and expands the concept of stress. Regarding the evaluation of route attributes, a high traffic volume and cobbled stone were rated the most negative, whereas separated cycling facilities were evaluated as most positive. Findings of this study expand existing research by qualitative insights and provide a more detailed understanding of route criteria like comfort or safety. This can be used to enhance cycling facilities and to offer preferable infrastructure for cyclists.