Psychological determinants of decision attitude

Decision attitude — an analog of risk attitude — is the propensity to make (or avoid making) a decision: in decision aversion, a person finds it more desirable to receive through fiat the better of two options than to have a choice between them; in decision seeking, the choice is more desirable, even though it can lead to nothing better than the best option. Both decision aversion and decision seeking were found in hypothetical scenarios. Experimental manipulations and subjects' justifications point to anticipated regret, fear of blame for poor outcomes, and desire for equitable distributions as sources of decision aversion. One source of decision seeking (for self) and decision aversion (when deciding for others) appears to be the desire for the self-determination of the affected parties. We consider the implications of our results for personal choice and public policy decisions.     

A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts

In this paper I formulate an approach for evaluating probabilistic forecasts in terms of signal detection theory. Signal detection theory provides a powerful perspective for this type of problem, and a rich empirical background including methodological tools as well as an extensive body of research in many domains. I propose procedures which emphasize the maximization of expected utility for the decision maker who uses the forecasts. Further, I suggest approaches to obtaining indices of calibration and resolution within this framework. I also present arguments that the proposed indices will exhibit the same basic properties as do decompositions of Brier's (1950, Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1–3) mean probability score. However, the properties may be reflected in different ways, and hence, the present methods may lead to different conclusions about forecasting ability. Finally, I argue that the use of an expected utility loss function makes this approach more appropriate for practical applications as well as for theoretical research than other procedures with more arbitrary loss functions.     

父母低头行为对儿童青少年心理发展的影响

父母低头行为是指父母照顾或与孩子交流时,过分关注与使用手机而忽视孩子的行为。梳理相关研究发现,父母低头行为会对孩子产生多种不良影响,如,降低亲子关系交流质量、增加意外伤害风险、损伤人际交往能力、导致问题行为增多。现有研究采用取代假说、多任务操作理论以及依恋理论对影响过程进行解释。未来研究的关键在于邻近概念的区分、测量方式和研究方法的改进、探讨儿童对父母手机使用行为的看法以及移动设备对亲子互动可能的积极影响。     

Comparative judgments with numerical reference points

A model of subjective magnitude comparisons is explored, which assumes that subjects compare symbolic stimulus magnitudes with respect to a reference point. The reference point may be established implicitly by the question (e.g., “Which is larger?” vs “Which is smaller?”) or be presented explicitly (e.g., “Choose the stimulus closer to X.”). The model was tested in five experiments in which subjects judged which of two comparison digits was closer to (or further from) a reference digit. Regression analyses in three experiments revealed that reaction time depended on the ratio of the distances from the comparison items to the reference point. The other two experiments provided evidence that subjects can strategically vary the processes by which they compare stimuli to a reference point. The results indicated that subjects can perform various types of “analog arithmetic” using either the linear number scale or a nonlinear scale of subjective digit magnitude.     

Neuropsychological significance of phonetically accurate and phonetically inaccurate spelling errors in younger and older retarded spellers

The performances of two groups of retarded spellers (who were equated with respect to the level of deficient performance in spelling, but who differed in the level of phonetic accuracy of their misspellings) at two different age levels were compared to those of normal spellers who had been matched for age and WISC Performance IQ with the retarded spelling groups. The results indicated very marked differences in a number of linguistic skills between the normal spellers and the retarded spellers whose misspellings were characterized by phonetic inaccuracy. The performances of the retarded spellers who produced a preponderance of phonetically accurate misspellings differed markedly from those of the normal spellers only when the task demands involved fairly complex linguistic-cognitive operations. For the most part, the differences among the three groups were in evidence only at the older age level studied.     

Seat belt usage: A potential target for applied behavior analysis

Results of 1,579 observations of cars entering or exiting campus parking lots showed direct relationships between seat belt wearing and the intrusiveness of the engineering device designed to induce belt usage, and between device intrusiveness and system defeat. For example, all drivers with working interlocks or unlimited buzzer reminders were wearing a seat belt; but 62% of the systems with interlocks or unlimited buzzers had been defeated, and only 15.9% of the drivers in these cars were wearing a seat belt. The normative data indicated marked ineffectiveness of the negative reinforcement contingencies implied by current seat belt inducement systems; but suggested that unlimited buzzer systems would be the optimal system currently available if contingencies were developed to discourage the disconnection and circumvention of such systems. Positive reinforcement strategies are discussed that would be quite feasible for large-scale promotion of seat belt usage.     

Selective attention by children and adults to pictures specified by color

Four conditions were used to investigate developmental trends in the ability to establish and use a color set to direct the selective processing of pictures. In three conditions, 6-year-old, 9-year-old, and adult subjects viewed a series of pairs of pictures, with one red and one black line drawing in each pair. Subjects were asked to look either at the red pictures only, the black pictures only, or both pictures. In a fourth condition, subjects viewed a series of singly presented red and black pictures. Pictures of both colors were included in a subsequent recognition memory test. At all ages recognition memory was comparable for pictures of each color in the both and single conditions but was higher for pictures of the specified color in the selective red and selective black conditions. There was no evidence at any age that memory for pictures of the specified color was decreased by the presence of the second picture. These results, showing roughly comparable selectivity at all ages, were discussed in relation to findings of developmental trends in selective attention on more “traditional” central-incidental learning tasks.     

Central deafness and subcortical motor aphasia

Clinical and autopsy studies were made on a right-handed man who had central deafness and subcortical motor aphasia, and the literature on central deafness and on subcortical motor aphasia was analyzed. Central deafness is due to bilateral destruction of the primary auditory cortex. It is sometimes difficult to distinguish from word deafness and from auditory agnosia, which are due to pathology in other parts of the temporal lobes. There is almost always some preserved hearing in central deafness, possibly from some auditory pathway other than the classical pathway. In this patient the subcortical motor aphasia was due to bilateral destruction of the motor cortex for the mouth and throat. In some other cases subcortical motor aphasia was due to the same pathology that usually causes Broca's aphasia; in these cases the unexpected preservation of writing was perhaps related to some difference in how language functions were organized in the brain.     

Effects of knowledge that attributions will be observed by others

The current study was conducted to determine if attribution statements would be affected by subjects' knowledge that their attributions of success or failure would be observed by an opposite-sex peer. At the time subjects recorded their attributions, half of them anticipated that their attributions would soon be observed in their presence by an opposite-sex peer, while the other half recorded their attributions anonymously. Results indicated that attributions of success and failure were affected by the social context. Observed subjects evidenced less tendency to attribute their failure to low ability than did nonobserved subjects. Subjects who succeeded on an identity-relevant task reported higher ability attributions under observation conditions than under nonobservation conditions. Observed subjects evidenced significantly greater willingness to attribute failure to lack of effort than did nonobserved subjects. For a task intended to be of minimal relevance to subjects' identities, nonobserved subjects attributed failure to task difficulty to a significantly greater degree than did observed subjects. Results were discussed in relation to Bradley's contention that self-serving biases in attribution can usefully be conceptualized as strategic self-presentations.