Pricing risk and ambiguity: The effect of perspective taking

In the valuation of uncertain prospects, a difference is often observed between selling and buying perspectives. This paper distinguishes between risk (known probabilities) and ambiguity (unknown probabilities) in decisions under uncertainty and shows that the valuation disparity increases under ambiguity compared to risk. It is found that both the comparative versus noncomparative evaluation of risky and ambiguous prospects and the uniqueness of the valuation perspective (either seller or buyer) moderate this increase in the disparity under ambiguity. The finding is consistent with recent theoretical accounts of pricing under uncertainty. We discuss implications for market behaviour and for the ambiguity paradigm as a research tool.     

On avoiding framing effects in experienced decision makers

The present study aimed to (a) demonstrate the effect of positive–negative framing on experienced criminal justice decision makers, (b) examine the debiasing effect of visually structured risk messages, and (c) investigate whether risk perceptions mediate the debiasing effect of visual aids on decision making. In two phases, 60 senior police officers estimated the accuracy of a counterterrorism technique in identifying whether a known terror suspect poses an imminent danger and decided whether they would recommend the technique to policy makers. Officers also rated their confidence in this recommendation. When information about the effectiveness of the counterterrorism technique was presented in a numerical format, officers' perceptions of accuracy and recommendation decisions were susceptible to the framing effect: The technique was perceived to be more accurate and was more likely to be recommended when its effectiveness was presented in a positive than in a negative frame. However, when the information was represented visually using icon arrays, there were no such framing effects. Finally, perceptions of accuracy mediated the debiasing effect of visual aids on recommendation decisions. We offer potential explanations for the debiasing effect of visual aids and implications for communicating risk to experienced, professional decision makers.     

Drivers’ illusions––no more risk

In this invited address to the International Congress of Applied Psychology, it is argued that traffic psychology has not had a major impact on accident prevention. The factors that have determined this are discussed. A review of the theories and models pertinent to drivers’ risk taking and road user behaviour in general is presented. It is argued that both risk-homeostasis theories and task capability model are not sufficiently precise to be used as a basis for preventive measures. Attitude–behaviour models derived from social psychology have proved to be powerful in identifying motivational factors influencing road user behaviour, but the majority of empirical evidence is based on self-reported rather than observed behaviour. It is argued that individual differences can provide a basis for accident prevention, in particular driver training.     

Publication standards in infancy research: Three ways to make Violation-of-Expectation studies more reliable

The Violation-of-Expectation paradigm is a widespread paradigm in infancy research that relies on looking time as an index of surprise. This methodological review aims to increase the reliability of future VoE studies by proposing to standardize reporting practices in this literature. I review 15 VoE studies on false-belief reasoning, which used a variety of experimental parameters. An analysis of the distribution of p-values across experiments suggests an absence of p-hacking. However, there are potential concerns with the accuracy of their measures of infants’ attention, as well as with the lack of a consensus on the parameters that should be used to set up VoE studies. I propose that (i) future VoE studies ought to report not only looking times (as a measure of attention) but also looking-away times (as an equally important measure of distraction); (ii) VoE studies must offer theoretical justification for the parameters they use, and (iii) when parameters are selected through piloting, pilot data must be reported in order to understand how parameters were selected. Future VoE studies ought to maximize the accuracy of their measures of infants’ attention since the reliability of their results and the validity of their conclusions both depend on the accuracy of their measures.     

Measuring Religion in War: A Response

We respond to Isak Svensson's reaction to our article titled “Shrouded: Islam, War, and Holy War in Southeast Asia,” which was published in Volume 53 of the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion.     

Investigations into pedestrian crossing choices on Cape Town freeways

South Africa is regularly identified in international literature as one of the countries with the highest number of traffic deaths per capita. Of these, around one third are pedestrians. Freeways constitute one of the highest risk locations for pedestrians – in most developed countries pedestrians are not seen in such locations, but for many South African pedestrians freeways are a regular part of their commute. Walking alongside and crossing of freeways are extremely common – and deaths associated with such activity also tragically so. Over the past four years in the Cape Town area alone there have been 413 pedestrian crashes causing 139 pedestrian deaths on freeways, as well as an unrecorded number of serious injuries.While pedestrian crossing behaviour has been extensively researched in many parts of the world, almost none has so far been carried out in the context of freeways. Little is known about pedestrian crossing decisions in locations where the stakes are so high.Following a study using traffic cameras associated with the Freeway Management System to measure the frequency and location of pedestrians crossing freeways, this article reports on surveys into crossing decisions of pedestrians on Cape Town’s freeways. Two successive surveys were conducted with pedestrians on or alongside the freeway. These included pedestrians who crossed using footbridges, and pedestrians who crossed at grade.In the analysis it was clear that while some of the traditional factors such as time saving and convenience were considered, far more important to pedestrians were issues of safety. Safety from fast-moving vehicles was one factor, while safety from criminals was a second and often conflicting factor which affected crossing choices. Crossing at grade was partly described in terms of utility maximisation (time and distance saving) but it was also, for many, one way of avoiding becoming a victim of crime. In terms of their perceptions of being involved in crashes, at-grade crossers reflected an astute awareness of the risks that they face. Many pedestrians articulated the belief that their choice of crossing was constrained by lack of alternatives. Until public transport and safe crossing locations are provided for these pedestrians it is clear that many will continue to cross dangerous roads, in full awareness of the risks they face.     

Analysis of factors affecting drivers’ choice to engage with a mobile phone while driving in Beijing

In the current work, we examined reasons that drivers choose to engage with a mobile phone while driving in Beijing. An Internet survey was administered to collect data about talking and texting while driving. Conversations were sorted into different types. Respondents were requested to indicate the frequency of initiating a call or text, perceived risk, perceived importance and emotionality of the call or text. A structural equation model of talking and texting while driving was developed with perceived risk, perceived importance and emotionality of the call as predictors and compared to a similar model with U.S. drivers. Unlike the U.S. data, perceived risk has a significant negative impact on the choice to call or text among drivers in Beijing. Results also show that perceived importance of the call is a major factor affecting the usage of phone while driving. Even though drivers know it is dangerous and illegal, Beijing drivers choose to talk on mobile phones while driving, but they prefer not to text.     

Mentoring Relationship Closures in Big Brothers Big Sisters Community Mentoring Programs: Patterns and Associated Risk Factors

Previous research suggests that early mentoring relationship (MR) closures may have harmful consequences for the health and well‐being of youth participating in community‐based mentoring programs. However, knowledge of the factors that lead some MRs to close early has been slow to emerge. This study examined patterns and correlates of early versus on‐time MR closures among 569 youth participating in Big Brothers Big Sisters community mentoring programs. Thirty‐four percent of youth experienced an early MR closure prior to the end of the program's 12 month period of commitment. The probability of closure was highest at 12 months into the MR. Early closures were positively associated with youth gender (girls), behavioral difficulties, and match determination difficulties. Early and on‐time closures were associated with youth extrinsic motives for joining the program. Early MR closures were negatively associated with youth perceptions of parent emotional support, parent social support, high quality MR, weekly contact in MR, and parent support of the MR. Implications for programming are discussed.     

Verbalization of Decision Strategies in Multiple‐Cue Probabilistic Inference

In multiple‐cue probabilistic inference, people choose between alternatives based on several cues, each of which is differentially associated with an alternative's overall value. Various strategies have been proposed for probabilistic inference (e.g., weighted additive, tally, and take‐the‐best). These strategies differ in how many cue values they require to enact and in how they weight each cue. Do decision makers actually use any of these strategies? Ways to investigate this question include analyzing people's choices and the cues that they reveal. However, different strategies often predict the same decisions, and search behavior says nothing about whether or how people use the information that they acquire. In this research, we attempt to elucidate which strategies participants use in a multiple‐cue probabilistic inference task by examining verbal protocols, a high‐density source of process data. The promise of verbal data is in their utility for testing detailed information processing models. To that end, we apply protocol analysis in conjunction with computational simulations. We find converging evidence across outcome measures, search measures, and verbal reports that most participants use simplifying heuristics, namely take‐the‐best. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.