Preference for human or algorithmic forecasting advice does not predict if and how it is used

Past research has found that people treat advice differently depending on its source. In many cases, people seem to prefer human advice to algorithms, but in others, there is a reversal, and people seem to prefer algorithmic advice. Across two studies, we examine the persuasiveness of, and judges' preferences for, advice from different sources when forecasting geopolitical events. We find that judges report domain-specific preferences, preferring human advice in the domain of politics and algorithmic advice in the domain of economics. In Study 2, participants report a preference for hybrid advice, that combines human and algorithmic sources, to either one on it's own regardless of domain. More importantly, we find that these preferences did not affect persuasiveness of advice from these different sources, regardless of domain. Judges were primarily sensitive to quantitative features pertaining to the similarity between their initial beliefs and the advice they were offered, such as the distance between them and the relative advisor confidence, when deciding whether to revise their initial beliefs in light of advice, rather than the source that generated the advice.     

Mementos and the endowment effect

This research provides evidence for a new moderator of the endowment effect: having a memento of the endowed object. Three studies adapting classic endowment effect paradigms and using a variety of endowment objects and mementos demonstrate that having a memento of an endowment increases willingness to trade the endowment and decreases selling prices for the endowment. We provide evidence that mementos attenuate the endowment effect regardless of whether the memento is a separate small gain when facing the loss of the endowment or a small part of the original endowment that is kept. Examining mementos in context of the endowment effect not only provides insight into the psychology underlying the reluctance to part with one's endowment but also other consumer disposition behaviors.     

基于预期理论的风险决策的神经机制

预期理论基于对期望效用理论的批判与发展,提出了价值函数与权重函数,对以往风险决策研究中所发现的现象进行了很好的预测与解释。预期理论的核心概念包括参照依赖、损失规避与权重函数。基于预期理论的一些决策偏差包括框架效应、禀赋效应和默认偏差也部分揭示了与人们风险决策有关的脑区。近年来,通过采用功能性核磁共振等脑成像手段对预期理论的一些核心成分进行的研究表明,涉及到人们风险决策的脑区主要有前额叶、纹状体、脑岛与杏仁核。未来的研究可以从预期理论的产生根源、个体发展以及遗传基因等角度进行进一步的探讨。     

损失规避源于得失程数多于获得？——损失规避的得失程数变化视角的再检验

刘欢、梁竹苑 和 李纾（2009a）在证明损失规避的得失程数变化视角时所取的损益值取值范围、对安于现状偏差影响的控制以及所选取的得两程失一程和得三程失两程的决策对象这四个方面存在的缺陷。本研究通过弥补上述缺陷并设计无关变量得到更严格控制的得三程失两程的决策情景,对得失程数变化视角重新进行了检验。结果发现,寿命“得一程失一程”的属性并未导致损失规避消失;在广泛的损益值范围内以自由为对象的决策同样表现为损失规避;将自由感知为生而拥有和后天获得的人数大致相当;因而得失程数变化视角需作出重要修正,同时前景理论与情绪预测误差理论亦不可完全预测损失规避出现的条件。     

不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响及其情景依赖性*

研究以Ellsberg选瓶任务为决策材料,探讨了不同任务特征下个体不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响。结果发现,获益情景下:高概率时高、低容忍度个体对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均偏好模糊规避;中概率时低容忍度个体比高容忍度个体表现出更低程度的模糊规避,前者倾向于模糊中立,后者倾向于模糊规避;低概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊中立。损失情景下:高概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊寻求;中概率时低容忍度比高容忍度个体更偏好模糊寻求,前者倾向于模糊寻求,后者倾向于模糊中立;低概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊规避。这表明,不确定性容忍度对模糊决策偏好产生作用,但这种作用会受到损益概率和损益结果的影响,具有情景依赖性。     

Predicting the intensity of losses vs. non-gains and non-losses vs. gains in judging fairness and value: A test of the loss aversion explanation

Three studies examined the predictions that in the context of evaluation of fairness and concessions in negotiations, losses would be perceived as more intensely negative than non-gains, and that non-losses would be perceived as more positive than gains. Extant studies tested only the first of these predictions. These predictions derive from the principle of loss aversion (LA), according to which losses are experienced more intensely than gains of similar objective magnitude. In this view, losses and non-losses are measured against the steep loss part of the value curve, whereas gains and non-gains are measured against the shallow part of the value curve. Our studies replicated extant studies in confirming the first prediction but failed to confirm the second prediction. Specifically, opposite to the prediction of LA, gains were perceived as more intensely positive than non-losses. It seems, therefore, that LA is not a sufficient explanation of why losses are perceived as more averse than gains. Feature positive and regulatory focus effects are discussed as additional potential contributors to the phenomenon.     

Direct reciprocity in animals: The roles of bonding and affective processes

The presence of direct reciprocity in animals is a debated topic, because, despite its evolutionary plausibility, it is believed to be uncommon. Some authors claim that stable reciprocal exchanges require sophisticated cognition which has acted as a constraint on its evolution across species. In contrast, a more recent trend of research has focused on the possibility that direct reciprocity occurs within long‐term bonds and relies on simple as well as more complex affective mechanisms such as emotional book‐keeping, rudimentary and higher forms of empathy, and inequity aversion, among others. First, we present evidence supporting the occurrence of long‐term reciprocity in the context of existing bonds in social birds and mammals. Second, we discuss the evidence for affective responses which, modulated by bonding, may underlie altruistic behaviours in different species. We conclude that the mechanisms that may underlie reciprocal exchanges are diverse, and that some act in interaction with bonding processes. From simple associative learning in social contexts, through emotional contagion and behavioural mimicry, to empathy and a sense of fairness, widespread and diverse social affective mechanisms may explain why direct reciprocity may not be a rare phenomenon among social vertebrates.     

A rating measure of ADHD-related neuropsychological impairment in children and adolescents: Data from the Cognition and Motivation in Everyday Life (CAMEL) Scale from population and clinical samples

A new parent-completed questionnaire, the Cognition and Motivation in Everyday Life (CAMEL) scale, was developed to provide a comprehensive assessment of neuropsychological impairment in children related to attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) across diverse cognitive, motivational and energetic domains. Its psychometric properties were investigated. A total of 60 items were generated to cover a wide range of putative ADHD-related neuropsychological processes. A clinical (n = 142) and community (n = 810) sample of parents with children between 6 and 16 years of age completed the questionnaire. Data on ADHD symptoms were also collected with a commonly-used, validated parent rating scale to explore the associations between CAMEL scores and dimensional measures of child ADHD and conduct problems. Factor analysis identified six factors which we labeled (i) Cognition, (ii) Self-Direction and Organization, (iii) Effort Engagement, (iv) Arousal Regulation, (v) Motivational Responsiveness, and (vi) Cautiousness. Self-Direction and Organization and Arousal Regulation were the strongest predictors for ADHD symptomatology. Self-Direction and Organization was strongly associated with inattention and Arousal Regulation with hyperactivity-impulsivity symptoms. Parents distinguished between broad neuropsychological domains in reliable and plausible ways, making distinctions between key aspects of functioning. However, the boundaries between these domains did not map directly onto the distinctions drawn within traditional models of ADHD deficits. Further research is required to examine the predictive validity and cost-effectiveness of the CAMEL scale compared to direct objective testing using laboratory measures in predicting prognosis and treatment outcome.     

Risk it? Direct and collateral impacts of peers' verbal expressions about hazard likelihoods*

When people encounter potential hazards, their expectations and behaviours can be shaped by a variety of factors including other people's expressions of verbal likelihood (e.g., unlikely to harm). What is the impact of such expressions when a person also has numeric likelihood estimates from the same source(s)? Two studies used a new task involving an abstract virtual environment in which people learned about and reacted to novel hazards. Verbal expressions attributed to peers influenced participants’ behaviour toward hazards even when numeric estimates were also available. Namely, verbal expressions suggesting that the likelihood of harm from a hazard is low (vs. higher) yielded more risk taking with respect to said hazard. There were also inverse collateral effects, whereby participants’ behaviour and estimates regarding another hazard in the same context were affected in the opposite direction. These effects may be based on directionality and relativity cues inferred from verbal likelihood expressions.     

Emotional intelligence and risky driving behaviour in adults

BackgroundRisky driving is considered a key predictive factor in road traffic accidents resulting in morbidity and mortality. Intra-individual emotional and personality factors have been shown to influence risk-taking behaviours among drivers. Despite this, there is limited research investigating the individual dimensions of these constructs and their relationship to risky driving behaviour (RDB). The current study therefore aimed to assess whether the individual dimensions of Emotional Intelligence (EI) were implicated in RDB.MethodsThe sample comprised 179 adults (55% male) aged between 18 and 64 years (M = 29.85, SD = 11.46) and who currently held a valid driver’s licence completed an online survey. Emotional Intelligence was assessed via self-report using the Swinburne University Emotional Intelligence Test (SUEIT), and RDB was measured using both the Brief Distracted Driving Scale (BDDS) and the Dula Dangerous Driving Index (DDDI).ResultsRegression analyses revealed that ‘Risky Driving’ was related to greater levels of Emotional Recognition and Expression and lesser Age [F_{(6, 172)} = 2.27, p < 0.05: R² = 7.3%], and the Negative Emotions sub-scale of DDDI, was significantly predicted by Emotional Control and Age [F_{(6, 172)} = 6.41, p < 0.05: R² = 18.3%]. A mediation model incorporating Age, Emotional Control scores and the Negative Emotions driving behaviour score indicated that a significant indirect effect of Age through Emotional Control (K² = 0.08, 95% CI [−0.02, −0.03]). (H [3] = 10.98, p = 0.012).ConclusionsLower scores on specific indices of EI are associated with increased rates of RDB, suggesting that poor emotional control may impede an individuals’ ability to make safe behavioural decisions when driving. The effect sizes for these models were small, however, and further research is needed to explore the contributory components in this association. Greater awareness of the role of emotional regulation and driving behaviours may be useful in preventing RDB in adults.