Collective estimation: Accuracy,expertise, and extroversion as sources of intra-group influence

Although estimations typically possess correct answers, these answers may be difficult to demonstrate to others. However, providing external information may increase their demonstrability. In this experiment, individuals (N = 60) and 6-person groups (N = 360) generated estimations with or without frames of reference. We hypothesized that estimations involving frames of reference would be best fit by models predicting intra-group influence based on the accuracy of alternatives or of members in general. Conversely, we hypothesized that estimations not involving frames of reference would be best fit by models predicting influence based on member extroversion or proposal centrality. Results indicate that groups outperformed individuals and that estimations generated in the presence of frames of reference were superior to those generated in their absence. Accuracy and expertise schemes provided the best fit when frames of reference were provided, whereas an extroversion scheme provided the best fit when they were not.     

Inventor perseverance after being told to quit: the role of cognitive biases

We find that approximately one third (29%) of independent inventors continue to spend money and 51% continue to spend time on projects after receiving highly diagnostic advice to cease effort. Using survey data from actual inventors, this paper studies the role of overconfidence, optimism, and the sunk‐cost bias in these decisions. We find that inventors are more overconfident and optimistic than the general population. We also find that optimism and past expenditures increased perseverance after being told to quit, while overconfidence in judgment ability had no effect. After being told to quit, optimists spend 166% more than pessimists and those having already spent, for example, $10 000 spend another $10 000. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How formulating implementation plans and remembering past actions facilitate the enactment of effortful decisions

Building on prior research studying effortful decision making and enactment processes (Bagozzi, Dholakia, & Basuroy, 2003; BDB), we identify and provide an in‐depth understanding of two specific self‐regulatory strategies: (1) formulating an implementation plan, and (2) remembering past actions, that decision makers can use in facilitating enactment of effortful decisions. The results of three experiments, in which the decision maker's goal and self‐regulatory strategy were manipulated, showed that for goals that decision makers chose volitionally, the motivational effects of both these strategies lay in increasing levels of proximal implementation‐related variables (implementation intentions, plan completeness, plan enactment, and goal realization) significantly. In contrast, for goals that were assigned to participants, these strategies' motivational effects additionally extended to significantly increasing distal goal‐related variables (goal desire, goal intentions, perceived self‐efficacy, and implementation desires). The theoretical implications of our findings are discussed, and future research opportunities are explored. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environments That Make Us Smart: Ecological Rationality

ABSTRACT— Traditional views of rationality posit general-purpose decision mechanisms based on logic or optimization. The study of ecological rationality focuses on uncovering the "adaptive toolbox" of domain-specific simple heuristics that real, computationally bounded minds employ, and explaining how these heuristics produce accurate decisions by exploiting the structures of information in the environments in which they are applied. Knowing when and how people use particular heuristics can facilitate the shaping of environments to engender better decisions.     

替代指标在心血管疾病临床决策中的正确认识

在心血管疾病临床试验中,替代指标常用于评价干预措施的疗效。但替代指标在心血管疾病临床试验中非常复杂,因此,心血管医生在解读和评价心血管疾病临床试验的结果时,应正确认识替代指标的内涵、应用背景及其局限性,同时,还应客观地评价相关替代指标的证据强度,以寻找最好的医学证据指导其临床决策和实践。     

Emotional and personality-related aspects of persistent career decision-making difficulties

This study focused on examining the persistent aspects of career decision-making difficulties, using the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties scale (EPCD; [Saka, N., Gati, I., & Kelly, K.R. (in press). Emotional and personality-related aspects of career decision-making difficulties. Journal of Career Assessment]). The contribution of four personality measures—general indecisiveness, self-esteem, trait anxiety, and identity status—to the prediction of persistent career decision-making difficulties was tested on 747 students, using a longitudinal design. Results indicated that individuals with high EPCD scores at the beginning of the academic school year had less confidence in their choice and were less close to making a decision about the major into which they wanted to be admitted at the end of the year. The moderate correlations between the EPCD score and the four personality measures supported the validity of the EPCD. Implications for counseling and future research are discussed.     

肿瘤分子生物学行为与其影像表现关系的探讨

肿瘤基因表达与其影像表现有一定的相关性,为我们用无创的影像学方法显示肿瘤的生物学特征提供了可能。探寻肿瘤分子生物学特性与其影像表现的内在联系,以期对肿瘤浸润和转移做出正确的诊断,从而为临床选择治疗方案、判断疗效和评估预后等提供更多、更有价值的信息。     

泌尿外科微创技术与临床决策

微创技术在泌尿外科中的应用越来越广泛,对临床决策也产生了深远的影响。临床决策应以最佳证据作指导,充分评价不同方案的风险和利益,选择出最优方案应用于临床实践。微创技术的应用要以人为本,要贯穿诊断和治疗的全过程,要因地制宜,充分考虑应用的物质条件和基础。微创技术的应用也必须考虑经济因素,应选择适宜技术进行适度治疗。     

浅析当前临床科学决策的几个影响因素

随着循证医学在我国的发展和"医疗举证责任倒置"等相关法律的实施,我国临床医生在进行诊治决策时已逐步向临床科学决策迈进。而防御性医疗、不健全的医疗制度及相关法律等却严重影响着这一科学决策的转变过程。只有有效解决了导致干扰科学决策的各种社会影响因素,如扩大基本医疗保险的覆盖率,实施医疗风险保险制度,提高医务人员认知和职业素质,保障行医安全等,临床科学决策的真正落实就大有希望。