Ear Decomposition for Pair Comparison Data

An efficient graph-theoretical decomposition technique is introduced that treats inconsistencies in behavioral data as systematic adaptations rather than random errors. This technique, which is known as ear decomposition, reduces inconsistencies in any binary data set to a basis of directed cycles. Such a basis characterizes the data set in terms of inconsistencies and its size offers an improved measure of internal consistency. In two examples it is illustrated how different implementations of the ear decomposition technique can help to identify choices that are critical for violations of transitivity.     

Heuristic Methods for Computer Ethics

The domain of "procedural ethics" is the set of reflective and deliberative methods that maximize the reliability of moral judgment. While no general algorithmic method exists that will guarantee the validity of ethical deliberation, non-algorithmic "heuristic" methods can guide and inform the process, making it significantly more robust and dependable. This essay examines various representative heuristic procedures commonly recommended for use in applied ethics, maps them into a uniform set of twelve stages, identifies common faults, then shows how the resulting stage-by-stage decision-making model could be adapted for general use and for use in computer ethics.     

Certainty and Uncertainty: The Two Faces of the Hindsight Bias

“Hindsight Bias” is a person's tendency, after learning about the actual outcome of a situation or the correct answer to a question, to distort a previous judgment in the direction of this new information. In the literature, hindsight bias has been mostly discussed as an inevitable result of a “judgment under uncertainty.” We think that the hindsight bias is due to memorial as well as inferential processes: Whereas certainty about the recollection is memorial and concerns the recollective experience, certainty at the time of the judgment is inferential and concerns the individual's metaknowledge (“I know that I knew that”). In two experiments participants' feelings of certainty were measured indirectly (Koriat & Goldsmith, 1996) by giving participants the option of leaving those questions unanswered about which they felt uncertain. This free-report option was offered to half of the participants in the first estimate phase (concerning time of judgment) and to the second half in the memory phase (concerning the recollective experience). At the end of the session, participants were presented again with the questions they had skipped and were now required to answer them. This procedure allowed us to compare the amount of hindsight bias for the skipped, uncertain items to the spontaneously answered, certain ones. Both experiments demonstrated that the hindsight bias is a result of the interaction of both uncertainty and certainty.     

An experimental analysis of decision channeling by restrictive information display

This study focuses on the effect of restrictive information display on decision performance. Specifically the study examines whether two‐channeled and one non‐channeled computerized information display systems result in significant differences in decision accuracy. The two‐channeled information display systems are designed to encourage two general information processing patterns commonly observed in the experimental literature examining multi‐alternative, multi‐attribute choice decisions: information processing by alternative and information processing by attribute. An information display program was developed which used restrictive information display to operationalize the channeled versus non‐channeled manipulation. Channeling was implemented either by displaying information only by alternative or by displaying information only by attribute. The task was an operations scheduling problem that subjects completed under three levels of time pressure. The results indicate statistically significant effects on decision accuracy for both the type of information display and time pressure manipulations. The highest decision accuracy was observed when information was displayed by alternative and when subjects were under highest levels of time pressure. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Perceived product instrumentality: the process of scale purification and validation

Perceived product instrumentality (PPI) is a new construct that is proposed as a key process component of a general model of family purchasing behaviour. PPI reflects the degree to which consumers, apprehended as actors of social roles, deem a product to be helpful, facilitative of role performance, compatible with role identity and congruent with the self‐concept. The objective of this paper is threefold: (1) assess the PPI unidimensionality and reliability; (2) purify the PPI scale, and (3) assess its validity. First, a pilot survey was administered to a convenience sample of men and women, who filled in four identical lists of 33 items tapping their attitudes towards durables, and exploratory factor analysis was conducted on each set to explore the overall pattern of the items relationships. Five try‐out pools of different sizes (33, 28, 15, 13 and 9 items) were involved in the analysis. The 15‐item scale was retained. Secondly, a large‐scale survey was administered to 500 couples as part of an extensive research involving comprehensive model testing. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted on the whole sample for reliability and unidimensionality assessment. At times, the analysis is done on men's and women's sub‐samples separately in order to account for eventual differences among both populations. Thirdly, confirmatory factor was conducted, splitting the sample into two random halves: the generation sample and the validation sample. The first half served for the PPI scales purification. In this case, PPI was posited as the latent variable and the scale items were posited as the manifest ones. The second served to validate the PPI theory in a system's framework: PPI was posited as a latent dependent variable while other role orientations variables were posited as latent independent variables. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications.     

Are University Professors Qualified to Teach Ethics?

In the light of recent talk in Canadian business schools about the importance of teaching courses in business ethics, the authors ask whether business professors have the qualifications required to teach business ethics. They point to various ethical dilemmas that arise in a collegial setting and argue that academics who teach business ethics have to first understand the complex ethical situations in which they find themselves if business ethics is to be taught in a meaningful way.     

快速节俭启发式--基于有限理性和生态理性的简单决策规则

本文阐述了德国“马克斯．普朗克人类发展研究所”以Gerd Gigerenzer教授为代表的“适应行为与认知中心”简称“ABC研究中心(组)”关于判断、推理和决策制定简单启发式研究的理论背景、研究思路和技术路线,着重介绍了该研究中心在有限理性和生态理性假设基础上提出的一系列极富创意的快速节俭启发式规则,并对围绕这些简单决策规则开展的研究活动作了简要介绍。     

Group decision process and incrementalism in organizational decision making

In two studies examining resource allocation, support is found for the notion that group decisions are affected in systematic ways depending on whether or not there was individual consideration of the problem before meeting as a group. Specifically, compared to no prior consideration groups, prior consideration groups (1) escalate their commitment more in progress (i.e., ongoing) decisions, and (2) are less willing to concentrate resources on a single project in adoption (i.e., resource utilization) decisions. The findings challenge the blanket assertion that promoting divergent views in a group decision context is always related to better decisions.     

Deep thoughts and shallow frames: on the susceptibility to framing effects

This paper examines the occurrence of framing effects when more thought is given to problems. In Study 1, participants were presented with one of two frames of several decision problems. Participants' Need for Cognition (NC) scores were obtained, and half the participants were asked to justify their choices. Substantial framing effects were observed, but the amount of thought purportedly given to a problem, whether manipulated by justification elicitation or measured by NC scores, did not reduce the incidence of framing effects. In Study 2, participants responded to both frames of problems in a within‐subjects design. Again, NC scores were unrelated to responses on the first frame encountered. However, high‐NC, compared to low‐NC, participants were more consistent across frames of a problem. More thought, as indexed here, does not reduce the proclivity to be framed, but does promote adherence to normative principles when the applicability of those principles is detectable. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk preferences in young children: early evidence of individual differences in reaction to potential gains and losses

New methods were developed for studying risky decision making in children as young as age five. Each child was given a block of ‘gain’ trials, for example, a choice between a sure gain of one prize and a 50:50 chance of gaining either two prizes or no prize, and a block of ‘loss’ trials, for example, a choice between a sure loss of one prize and a 50:50 chance of losing either two prizes or no prize. We were thus able to compare risky choice for gains and losses at the level of the individual child. In each of two experiments a variety of individual difference variables were measured, including in Experiment 2, the child's parent's scores on the same task. Across experiments, the preponderance of choices was of the risky option. However, most children and adults made more risky choices in the domain of losses than in the domain of gains. Predictors of individual differences in children included shyness, impulsivity, and the risk taking of the child's parent. We suggest that methods are now in place to encourage further studies of decision processes in young children. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.