A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts

In this paper I formulate an approach for evaluating probabilistic forecasts in terms of signal detection theory. Signal detection theory provides a powerful perspective for this type of problem, and a rich empirical background including methodological tools as well as an extensive body of research in many domains. I propose procedures which emphasize the maximization of expected utility for the decision maker who uses the forecasts. Further, I suggest approaches to obtaining indices of calibration and resolution within this framework. I also present arguments that the proposed indices will exhibit the same basic properties as do decompositions of Brier's (1950, Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1–3) mean probability score. However, the properties may be reflected in different ways, and hence, the present methods may lead to different conclusions about forecasting ability. Finally, I argue that the use of an expected utility loss function makes this approach more appropriate for practical applications as well as for theoretical research than other procedures with more arbitrary loss functions.     

The effects of feedback consistency and feedback favorability on self-perceived task competence and perceived feedback accuracy

The present study, employing a 2 × 2 true-experimental design and regression analyses assessed the main and interactive effects of feedback consistency (consistent vs inconsistent), and feedback favorability (acceptable vs superior), for feedback given at two time periods on measures of perceived feedback accuracy and self-perceived task competence. Among the study's findings were that (a) the perceived accuracy of feedback at the second period was a function of the favorability of feedback received at the first time period, (b) the self-perceived task competence levels of subjects were jointly determined by the favorability of feedback received at both time periods, and (c) the perceived accuracy of feedback was a function of its consistency. Organizational implications of the study's results are offered.     

Personality correlates of retrieval processes in intentional and unintentional forgetting

Early accounts of intentional forgetting relied exclusively on mechanisms that operate at encoding. The results of more recent experiments indicate that memory-retrieval inhibition also is involved, thus linking waking intentional forgetting with hypnotic amnesia. The present Experiment 1 was designed to provide further support for the retrieval-inhibition hypothesis by testing four alternative explanations for some of the recent results. Experiment 2 examined the role of word affect in both intentional forgetting and unintentional forgetting to evaluate theoretical interpretations of the retrieval mechanisms thought to be involved. Unintentional forgetting of negative words was consistent with a repression-like interpretation, whereas intentional forgetting of negative words appeared to be limited by sensitization. Personality correlates of the recall results were identified and were found to be in support of these interpretations.     

Further tests of a meta-model of youthful marijuana use

This paper tests a meta-model of youthful marijuana use on students in Grades 11, 12 and 13. Although the specific models for each grade varied in detail, all followed a meta-model making the following assumptions: (1) that use or nonuse of marijuana depends primarily on attitude towards use; (2) that attitude largely reflects the perceived functional and dysfunctional consequences of use; and (3) that what people perceive as functional or dysfunctional depends on relevant personality characteristics. All three models showed satisfactory goodness-of-fit in terms of nonsignificant overidentification tests (minimum P > 0.25) and small discrepancies between observed correlations and the corresponding theoretically implied correlations. A notable feature of the Grade 13 data in contrast to those for Grade 12 and previously reported findings was the seeming unimportance of the perceived value of marijuana use for gaining acceptance from peers. It was suggested that this might reflect the selective survival into Grade 13 in the sampled community of more independently-oriented students.     

Interviewer evaluations of interviewee nonverbal behavior

Personnel representatives (N = 52) were shown one of four videotaped job interviews in which the verbal content of the 16-min interview was identical, but the interviewee's nonverbal behavior was manipulated. A “low nonverbal” interviewee was defined by minimal eye contact, low energy level, lack of affect and voice modulation, and a lack of speech fluency. The “high nonverbal” interviewee demonstrated the opposite behavior on each of these components. The subjects were asked to rate the videotaped candidates on dimensions previously identified as critical in influencing a job interviewer's decisions. Nonverbal behavior was found to have a significant effect on almost every rating made by subjects in this study. After reviewing the entire 16-min interview, 23 of the 26 subjects who saw the “high nonverbal” candidate would have invited him/her for a second interview. All 26 of the subjects who saw the “low nonverbal” candidate would not have recommended a second interview.     

Mid-career change in academia: The decision to become an administrator

This study explored the reasons why professors would leave their teaching/ research occupations to begin new careers as administrators. Valence-Instrumentality-Expectancy theory of occupational preference and choice was used as a framework to examine mid-career change among professors and department chairmen at a major university. Data showed that professors' intentions to change careers and become administrators could be explained by the theory. Analyses of job characteristics demonstrated that professors who want a mid-career change are primarily attracted by the power and formal authority vested in the administrative position, while professors who prefer to remain in their career paths do so because of the autonomy it offers.     

The web of work for technical and managerial employees

This study examines aspects of the job and off-job lives of technical and managerial employees. A framework for studying parallel dimensions in these two life spheres is developed. Variables include alienation—powerlessness and meaninglessness—and activities—variety, control, social interaction, and purpose. Findings show strong interaction between alienation from work and that experienced from life off the job. Limited relationships between activity dimensions were found. Overall, results suggest that employees' feelings of alienation carry over strongly between the two life spheres but that only limited carry-over occurs between job activities and those away from work. Findings give no support to the compensatory view of relationships between employees' job and off-job lives.     

Relationships between perceptions of organizational size and the organizational choice process

Expectancy theory concepts were used to predict (a) the attractiveness of, (b) the amount of effort directed toward entering, and (c) the eventual choice of a job in relatively big and small work organizations. It was found, among a group of graduating seniors from a technical college, that antecedent perceptions regarding organizational size (expectancy, valence, instrumentality) were significantly related to the relative attractiveness of different-sized organizations and the number of job interviews taken with relatively big and small companies. In addition, economically tied extrinsic outcomes were seen as more readily attainable in big organizations, whereas certain intrinsic outcomes were perceived to be more easily obtained in small organizations.