Fitting and testing carroll's weighted unfolding model for preferences

A quadratic programming algorithm is presented for fitting Carroll's weighted unfolding model for preferences to known multidimensional scale values. The algorithm can be applied directly to pairwise preferences; it permits nonnegativity constraints on subject weights; and it provides a means of testing various preference model hypotheses. While basically metric, it can be combined with Kruskal's monotone regression to fit ordinal data. Monte Carlo results show that (a) adequacy of true preference recovery depends on the number of data points and the amount of error, and (b) the proportion of data variance accounted for by the model sometimes only approximately reflects true recovery.This study is based on a doctoral dissertation submitted to the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The author wishes to thank the members of his dissertation committee—Lawrence E. Jones, Chairman, Charles Lewis, Stephen Golding, Ledyard Tucker, and Nancy Wiggins—for their helpful comments.     

Word Order Variation is Partially Constrained by Syntactic Complexity

Previous work suggests that when speakers linearize syntactic structures, they place longer and more complex dependents further away from the head word to which they belong than shorter and simpler dependents, and that they do so with increasing rigidity the longer expressions get, for example, longer objects tend to be placed further away from their verb, and with less variation. Current theories of sentence processing furthermore make competing predictions on whether longer expressions are preferentially placed as early or as late as possible. Here we test these predictions using hierarchical distributional regression models that allow estimates of word order and word order variation at the level of individual dependencies in corpora from 71 languages, while controlling for confounding effects from the type of dependency (e.g., subject vs. object), and the type of clause (main vs. subordinate) involved as well as from trends that are characteristic of individual languages, language families, and language contact areas. Our results show the expected correlations of length with position and variation only for two out of six dependency types (obliques and nominal modifiers) and no difference between clause types. These findings challenge received theories of across-the-board effects of complexity on word order and word order variation and call for theoretical models that relativize effects to specific kinds of syntactic structures and dependencies.     

贝叶斯统计方法的应用与现状

贝叶斯统计方法是心理学数据分析的热门方法。研究全面论述贝叶斯方法在心理学领域的应用与方向。现阶段贝叶斯方法以模拟研究为主,应用方向为心理学研究常用的项目反应理论、认知诊断、计算机自适应、结构方程模型。同时,评述发现贝叶斯方法正逐步被国内心理学研究者所接受。最后,文章讨论了当下贝叶斯统计在心理学研究中应用的局限性及可能的原因,建议统计学者开发界面友好的贝叶斯软件,并在心理学课程中加入贝叶斯知识。     

Regression II. Development through regression

As shown in our previous paper (‘Regression I. Experimental approaches to regression’, JAP, 65, 2, 345-65), the common mechanism of regression can be described as reversible dedifferentiation, which is understood as a relative increase of the proportion of low-differentiated (older) systems in actualized experience. Experimental data show that regression following disease (chronic tension headache) is followed by adaptation and an increase in system differentiation in that experience domain which contains systems responsible for that adaptation. The results of mathematical modelling support the idea that reversible dedifferentiation can be one of the mechanisms for increasing the effectiveness of adaptation through learning. Reversible dedifferentiation, which is phenomenologically described as regression, is a general mechanism for restructuring the organism-environment interactions in situations where behaviours that were effective in the past become ineffective. Reversible dedifferentiation has evolved as a component of adaptation when new behaviours are formed and large-scale modifications in the existing behaviours are required in the face of changes in the external and/or internal environment. Thus, the authors believe that this article provides evidence for Jung’s view that regression is not only a ‘return’ to past forms of thinking, affects and behaviour, but that regressive processes provide a significant impetus for psychological growth and development.     

Lasso回归：从解释到预测

传统的最小二乘回归法关注于对当前数据集的准确估计, 容易导致模型的过拟合, 影响模型结论的可重复性。随着方法学领域的发展, 涌现出的新兴统计工具可以弥补传统方法的局限, 从过度关注回归系数值的解释转向提升研究结果的预测能力也愈加成为心理学领域重要的发展趋势。Lasso方法通过在模型估计中引入惩罚项的方式, 可以获得更高的预测准确度和模型概化能力, 同时也可以有效地处理过拟合和多重共线性问题, 有助于心理学理论的构建和完善。     

Psychometric Modeling of response speed and accuracy with mixed and conditional regression

Human performance in cognitive testing and experimental psychology is expressed in terms of response speed and accuracy. Data analysis is often limited to either speed or accuracy, and/or to crude summary measures like mean response time (RT) or the percentage correct responses. This paper proposes the use of mixed regression for the psychometric modeling of response speed and accuracy in testing and experiments. Mixed logistic regression of response accuracy extends logistic item response theory modeling to multidimensional models with covariates and interactions. Mixed linear regression of response time extends mixed ANOVA to unbalanced designs with covariates and heterogeneity of variance. Related to mixed regression is conditional regression, which requires no normality assumption, but is limited to unidimensional models. Mixed and conditional methods are both applied to an experimental study of mental rotation. Univariate and bivariate analyzes show how within-subject correlation between response and RT can be distinguished from between-subject correlation, and how latent traits can be detected, given careful item design or content analysis. It is concluded that both response and RT must be recorded in cognitive testing, and that mixed regression is a versatile method for analyzing test data.I am grateful to Rogier Donders for putting his data at my disposal.     

Variability of the MAX and MIN Statistic: A Theory of the Quantile Spread as a Function of Sample Size

The maximum and minimum of a sample from a probability distribution are extremely important random variables in many areas of psychological theory, methodology, and statistics. For instance, the behavior of the mean of the maximum or minimum processing time, as a function of the number of component random processing times (n), has been studied extensively in an effort to identify the underlying processing architecture (e.g., Townsend & Ashby, 1983; Colonius & Vorberg, 1994). Little is known concerning how measures of variability of the maximum or minimum change with n. Here, a new measure of random variability, the quantile spread, is introduced, which possesses sufficient strength to define distributional orderings and derive a number of results concerning variability of the maximum and the minimum statistics. The quantile spread ordering may be useful in many venues. Several interesting open problems are pointed out. This work was supported by an NIH Grant R01 MH57717 to the first author. Some of the collaboration took place during the year 2000 while J.T. Townsend was a Fellow at the Hanse Institute for Advanced Study (HWK), sponsored by H. Colonius at Oldenburg University.     

Psychoanalysis and Diplomacy: Part I. Individual and Large Group Identity

Starting with Sigmund Freud, psychoanalysts have written on a variety of topics relating to the diplomatic and political realms; but thus far their contributions primarily have been theoretical in nature, and have offered little of practical use to most diplomats and politicians. Various psychoanalytic theories have been applied, resulting in diverse conceptualizations: Wars are inevitable because of our inherent aggressive drives; a nation-state serves a maternal function for its members; certain large groups exhibit behaviors similar to those of adolescents. Yet these ideas do not significantly help us understand day-to-day events around the world, practical political issues, or international relations and diplomatic decisions.