Seeing the forest and not the trees: When impact uncertainty heightens causal complexity

This study attempts to isolate the effects of experiencing uncertainty on people's cognitive processes. I argue that people can believe that their actions affect the outcome (i.e. outcome control), but still face uncertainty regarding the extent to which actions will make a difference (i.e. impact uncertainty). To this end, I introduce a novel experimental paradigm which isolates the effects of impact uncertainty from outcome control. The findings revealed that after experiencing impact uncertainty, participants demonstrated greater causal complexity (i.e. more likely to make situational attributions and judge outcomes as having a “ripple effect”), but did not make fewer effort attributions for the outcomes. These findings demonstrate how the experience of impact uncertainty can affect cognitive processing, without compromising outcome control. Implications of these findings for developing more nuanced theories on control and uncertainty are discussed.     

Complexity,Progress, and Hierarchy in Evolution

In this article I suggest a view of evolution characterized as a progressive process toward successively higher levels of complexity. In this approach, complexity is defined by means of an operational definition giving the possibility of its measurement by means of a procedure in which development has a crucial role. Furthermore, the concept of competition applied in the complexity space explains the cumulative emergence of new species as well as the presence of stagnant species. In this process, species are formed in a hierarchical order in which the human species is situated on the highest level. This view of evolution, thus also embracing human cultural evolution, is depicted in a diagram of complexity versus time, thus forming a new kind of a Tree of Life. The purpose of the suggested interpretation of evolution is to make it more readily acceptable for common people.     

Fundamentalism,Radicalization and Terrorism. Part 2: fundamentalism,regression and repair

Prior to the watershed events of 11 September 2001, terrorism was generally seen simply as politically motivated, criminal violence. Since then the phenomena of religious fundamentalism, political radicalization and terrorism have become fused in the public mind, partly under the influence of the political and military reaction described as the ‘War on Terror’ and its successors. While there is clearly an important overlap in the religious thinking of some fundamentalists, the radical agenda of political Islamist groups and the violent activities of those who currently use the tactics of terrorism, these are not identical phenomena, and treating everyone who falls into one of these groups as the same as all the others has exacerbated rather than improved global security. In the second of two papers based on his work with terrorist organizations and areas of the world embroiled in entrenched conflict, Lord Alderdice develops a different approach informed by psychoanalytical principles and systems and complexity theories to clarify some of the boundaries and overlapping elements of these three phenomena. This approach not only provides a more evidence-based analysis, but also permits a more reflective and constructive response to these clear and present dangers.     

Problem decomposability as a factor in complexity of the dimensional change card sort task

According to cognitive complexity and control (CCC) theory complexity depends on number of levels of a hierarchy of rules. According to relational complexity (RC) theory complexity is a function of the number of related variables in the task, and the most difficult tasks are those in which there is a constraint on decomposition into simpler subtasks. One hundred and twenty, 3–6-year old children were tested on the standard dimensional change card sort (DCCS) task, or a modified version, the DecompDCCS, in which the dimensions could be decomposed into subtasks. The standard version requires two levels of a hierarchy to be processed, and is ternary relational according to RC theory, whereas the subtasks of the DecompDCCS are binary relational. The DecompDCCS was easier than the DCCS for 3–4 year-olds, but all 5–6 year-olds succeeded on both. The results indicate that decomposability into simpler subtasks, as suggested by RC theory, is a factor in difficulty of DCCS. The role of decomposability in other tasks that are persistently difficult for young children is discussed.     

‘Bound in a nutshell’: Thoughts on complexity,reductionism, and ‘infinite space’1

Pluralism is the hallmark of 21st century psychoanalytic discourse. Nevertheless, an unpleasant byproduct of pluralism is a tendency in some quarters to retreat into orthodoxy, stemming from a perceived need to shore up theoretical boundaries in the service of differentiating one theory from another. The delineation of borders places us at a risk of losing sight of the fact that genuine psychoanalytic thinking is fundamentally non‐reductionistic. Moreover, the core psychoanalytic notion of overdetermination, which Freud never abandoned throughout his career, has recently been neglected as authors argue in their communications that one point of view is better than another. Both analysts and their patients secretly are drawn to simple formulations that eschew complexity. The need to remain open to the ‘infinite space’ of meaning, motive, and causation should be a hallmark of clinical psychoanalytic practice. The author considers the implications for technique, and provides case material to illustrate some of the challenges inherent in approaching psychoanalytic work as a complex phenomenon.     

Integrative Complexity of 41 U.S. Presidents

Although U.S. presidents are one of the most studied groups of political figures and integrative complexity is one of the most widely used constructs in political psychology, no study to date has fully examined the integrative complexity of all U.S. presidents. The present study helps fill in that gap by scoring 41 U.S. presidents' first four State of the Union speeches for integrative complexity and then comparing these scores with a large range of available situational and personality variables. Results suggest a tendency for presidents' integrative complexity to be higher at the beginning of their first term and drop at the end. This pattern was pronounced for presidents who eventually won reelection to a second term and was markedly different for presidents who tried to gain reelection but lost. Additional analyses suggested that presidents' overall integrative complexity scores were in part accounted for by chronic differences between presidents' complexity levels. Further analyses revealed that this overall integrative complexity score was positively correlated to a set of interpersonal traits (friendliness, affiliation motive, extraversion, and wittiness) and negatively correlated with inflexibility. Discussion centers upon the causes and consequences of presidential complexity.     

中国现代保守主义思潮的复杂性

近代以来的中国,关于保守与进步的争论一直不断,传统观点认为,社会上有两种人,一种是鼓吹改革与革命的人,另一种是反对社会变革的人士。但长期以来被中国思想史和哲学史的研究者所忽略的一个现象是,在所谓的文化保守主义者之中,存在着一个很重要的区别。就是虽然在表面上他们都对传统文化持保守主义的态度,但是他们其中一些人认为传统文化是存在于世界民族文化之中的一种具有普遍性、世界性的价值,是其他民族文化所永远不能替代的。而另一些人则只是将传统文化看做是一个民族在其现代化的道路上摆脱不掉的包袱。由于这两种对待传统文化态度的不同,我们可以将中国现代思想史上的保守主义思潮和人物,大致分为这两个不同的阵营。     

A RESPONSE TO ERVIN LASZLO: QUANTUM AND CONSCIOUSNESS

Abstract. I respond to Ervin Laszlo's suggestions and criticism regarding my essay in this issue of Zygon. Virtual atomic orbitals are used as a model to illustrate the existence of a general realm of potentiality in physical reality from which the actual world emanates. Laszlo's suggestions for “paradigm repair” are supported and accepted as essentially being in agreement with my intentions and as offering highly useful clarifications. I compare virtual states to historic ideas of forms as metaphysical principles of being that inspire thoughts regarding the actions of a Cosmic Consciousness in the processes of the universe. Metaphysical and theological interpretations of the results of scientific research are defended, provided that they are not used to interfere a priori with the technical program of scientific research.     

EMERGENCE AND HUMAN UNIQUENESS: LIMITING OR DELIMITING EVOLUTIONARY EXPLANATION?

Abstract. Philip Clayton's book Mind and Emergence presents a highly sophisticated argument against any kind of uncritical theology that might want to follow science into a world of overly narrow, compartmentalized disciplines that do not sufficiently communicate between themselves. Clayton argues persuasively that the basic structure of the phenomenal world is multileveled, with emergent properties and degrees of freedom that cannot be adequately described, predicted, or explained in terms of lower‐level phenomena only. Moreover, the various levels of organization are linked to one another by interfaces of mutual constraint in terms of upward and downward causation. The most valuable part of Clayton's argument, however, is that in a philosophy of emergence one must also, if not especially, account for the role of the biological sciences and especially for the influence of human thoughts and skills, human choices and actions, and—one of the most important causes of all—human purposes. Clayton's biggest challenge is that the level of human personhood offers us the only appropriate level to introduce the question of God and the possibility of divine agency. I critically evaluate this central claim and its implications not only for the extent of divine influence on the world but also for the scope and limitations of the interdisciplinary dialogue between theology and the sciences.     

关系复杂性理论述评

任务复杂性的分析是发展心理学和心理测量学都非常关注的重要课题。哈尔福德等人提出了评估任务难度的关系复杂性理论,认为任务难度可由相关的变量数量即关系复杂性来确定;关系复杂性越大加工要求也越高,这时可采取概念组块和分解机制来减少复杂性;认知发展阶段可归因于随着年龄的增长能够加工的关系复杂性的增加。虽然该理论得到了很多实验证据的支持,但也存在一些不足。主要不足表现在没有区别问题难度与问题解决难度,对维度层次关系不够重视,以及一些基本的理论问题没有明确阐述。这都是今后进一步研究应解决的问题。