心理因素与学业表现：机器学习分类预测模型

随着高等教育规模的扩大,学业表现不良逐渐成为一个不容忽视的现象,对学业表现不良的学生进行预测并提早给予干预可降低退学率并减少教育资源的损失。由于导致学业表现不良的因素众多且关系复杂,传统的基于相关分析的研究方法很难建立早期预测模型并进行应用。本研究旨在利用机器学习算法,对数据进行挖掘,并建立学业表现预测模型。研究对653名大一新生的心理健康状况、应对方式、人格、内外控倾向和相关人口统计学信息进行了收集,并在一年后采集了其学业成绩,利用随机森林(RF)、K邻近（KNN）、支持向量机（SVM）、决策树（DT）、朴素贝叶斯（NB）等机器学习算法建立了分类模型。结果显示,随机森林算法在识别学业表现不良学生时有最好的表现,其中准确率95.86%, 召回率91.83%,f1分数为93.80%。特征重要性分析显示,前10个对模型有最高贡献度的特征包括：年龄、性别、是否为独生子、内外控倾向、神经质倾向、积极应对倾向、宜人性倾向、一般症状指数、开放性倾向和焦虑水平。为避免过度拟合问题,本研究在一年后收集的166名新生样本中进行了模型验证,结果显示模型在新数据集上有较好的泛化表现,其中f1分数90.90％,准确率92.60％,召回率89.26％。研究提示基于人口统计学和心理测评信息,机器学习算法有助于及早识别学业表现不良学生并为开展早期干预提供启示。     

A systematic review of the effectiveness of machine learning for predicting psychosocial outcomes in acquired brain injury: Which algorithms are used and why?

Clinicians working in the field of acquired brain injury (ABI, an injury to the brain sustained after birth) are challenged to develop suitable care pathways for an individual client’s needs. Being able to predict psychosocial outcomes after ABI would enable clinicians and service providers to make advance decisions and better tailor care plans. Machine learning (ML, a predictive method from the field of artificial intelligence) is increasingly used for predicting ABI outcomes. This review aimed to examine the efficacy of using ML to make psychosocial predictions in ABI, evaluate the methodological quality of studies, and understand researchers’ rationale for their choice of ML algorithms. Nine studies were reviewed from five databases, predicting a range of psychosocial outcomes from stroke, traumatic brain injury, and concussion. Eleven types of ML were employed with a total of 75 ML models. Every model was evaluated as having high risk of bias, unable to provide adequate evidence for predictive performance due to poor methodological quality. Overall, there was limited rationale for the choice of ML algorithms and poor evaluation of the methodological limitations by study authors. Considerations for overcoming methodological shortcomings are discussed, along with suggestions for assessing the suitability of data and suitability of ML algorithms for different ABI research questions.     

The Nature of Client Agency Prior to Therapy: A Qualitative Study on Clients’ Narratives

Client agency is considered a crucial contributor to good treatment outcome. Recent studies, however, differ strongly in how they conceptualise and investigate agency. The current study explores the nature of client agency in ten clients’ pre-treatment interviews. Applying Consensual Qualitative Research, we constructed three overarching categories, subdivided into 14 sub-categories capturing both between- and within-person differences in agency before therapy. We found that all participants oscillated between the experience of a lack of grip on problems on the one hand and noticing their involvement in the problem and taking action on the other. These results present a dynamic conceptualisation of client agency. This allows us to ask pertinent questions for both future research and clinical practice.     

Remembrances of parental rejection are associated with loneliness as mediated by psychological maladjustment in young Bangladeshi men but not women

Loneliness is a significant public health issue that affects young adults. This investigation drew from interpersonal acceptance-rejection theory to understand how remembrances of parental rejection contributed to psychological maladjustment and loneliness in Bangladeshi college students (N = 300; 50% female). Students reported their remembrances of mothers' and fathers' acceptance-rejection, their current psychological maladjustment, and loneliness. Remembrances of rejection by parents in childhood were associated with psychological maladjustment (hostility/aggression, negative self-esteem, negative self-adequacy, emotional unresponsiveness, emotional instability, and negative worldview) for young adult men and women. Psychological maladjustment, in turn, was associated with feelings of loneliness in young adulthood for young men, but not women. Remembrances of parental rejection were also associated with greater hostility and aggression over and above general psychological functioning among both men and women. Findings are discussed in the context of different social and structural features of young adulthood for women and men in Bangladesh.     

Self-Compassion and Need Frustration Moderate the Effects of Upward Appearance Comparisons on Body Image Discrepancies

Abstract

Drawing from diverse theoretical frameworks, we examined predictors of discrepancy between current and ideal body image in a sample of 396 Greek adolescents. The participants completed assessments of the frequency of comparing oneself with someone of perceived better appearance, appearance evaluations, frustration of basic psychological needs, and appearance self-compassion. We found that upward appearance comparisons negatively predicted appearance evaluation, which in turn was a negative predictor of body image discrepancy. Moderated mediation analyses showed that appearance self-compassion buffered, whereas psychological need frustration augmented the negative effects of upward comparisons on appearance evaluation. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on body image discrepancies in adolescence by examining moderating factors that amplify or buffer such discrepancies, hence identifying viable intervention pathways.     

Immigration Enforcement Policies and the Mental Health of US Citizens: Findings from a Comparative Analysis

We examined the differential impact of having a family member, friend, or co-worker/community member detained or deported on the mental health of US citizens. In 2019, a sample of 3446 adult participants of White, Black, and Latinx racial/ethnic descent were recruited to complete an online questionnaire. Participants completed the Patient Health Questionnaire-4 to screen for anxiety, depression, and psychological distress. Analyses were restricted to US citizens (n = 3282). Multivariable logistic and linear regressions were conducted to examine the mental health of US citizens who reported personally knowing a migrant who has been detained or deported and by their relationship to the migrant, overall and among Latinxs only. Among US citizens, 32% reported personally knowing someone who has been detained or deported. In multivariable analyses, US citizens who personally knew a detained or deported migrant were more likely to report anxiety, depression, and greater psychological distress. Associations were more pronounced among those who reported having a family member detained or deported. US-citizen Latinxs with social ties to migrants who have been detained or deported were especially more likely to report poor mental health than White and Latinx participants who did not personally know a migrant who has been detained or deported. It is critical that policy makers consider the potential mental health harms on migrants and its own citizens when designing policies targeting migrant communities.     

Counseling Military Populations: A Content Analysis of Counseling Journals From 1998 to 2018

Mental health scholarship of military populations is largely guided by researchers in psychiatry and psychology. Recent advocacy efforts have created increased opportunities for professional counselors to serve military clients, but the research within the profession has yet to be explored. A content analysis of 23 professional counseling journals from June 1998 to June 2018 was conducted to determine military population research trends. Findings indicated that counselors are researching topics similar to those of other mental health fields, such as posttraumatic stress, but are contributing to those topics conceptually rather than empirically. Topical areas in which counselors do produce more empirical studies include career counseling, and these studies relied on college student veteran populations. Suggestions for incorporating the philosophical principles of counseling into future research are provided to inform the trajectory of military scholarship in the profession.     

条件推理:“演绎”与“概率”两种实验研究范式之比较

本研究通过推理心理学研究中的“演绎”和“概率”两种实验范式设计对同一个班级的大学生参与者(实验一中N=57,实验二中N=43)进行先后两次有关条件推理的实验研究后,得出如下主要结果:(1)推理者在对不同的“纯形式条件命题本身的认可度”以及对由它们各自建构的同类型推理题的推理结果之间的作答反应模式之间的差异都很小且具有较高的一致性;(2)对由不同的“含具体内容的假言命题”本身的认可度之间以及由它们建构的同类型条件推理题的推理结果之间具有较大的差异性;(3)推理者对“演绎”和“概率”两种不同实验范式分别建构的内容近似的推进题进行推理时具有大致相同的作答反应趋势。由此可以推论推理者在“概率推理实验范式”中的作答或推理结果可以被视为只是对“演绎推理实验范式”的相应推理题给出“概率解”的心理加工过程。