时间洞察力对跨期选择偏好的预测

利用津巴多时间洞察力问卷,采用跨期选择经典范式,考察“现在享乐型”和“未来定向型”两类时间洞察力个体在跨期选择上的偏好,从人格特质角度来探究跨期选择的认知机制。结果发现：(1)现在享乐定向组的延迟折扣率显著高于未来定向组;(2)未来定向组在时间洞察力量表“未来维度”得分与延迟折扣率显著负相关。这说明时间洞察力对个体延迟折扣率具有预测作用,支持了跨期选择的时间感知基础模型。     

Effects of acute and chronic flunitrazepam on delay discounting in pigeons

Delay to delivery of a reinforcer can decrease responding for that reinforcer and increase responding for smaller reinforcers that are available concurrently and delivered without delay; acute administration of drugs can alter responding for large, delayed reinforcers, although the impact of chronic treatment on delay discounting is not well understood. In this experiment, the effects of repeated administration of the benzodiazepine flunitrazepam were studied in 6 pigeons responding on one key to receive food that was delivered immediately and on a second key to receive a larger amount of food that was delivered following delays which increased across a single session. Pigeons responded predominantly for the large reinforcer when there were no delays and when delays were short; however, as delays increased, responding for the large reinforcer decreased. Acutely, flunitrazepam (0.32, 1.0 and 3.2 mg/kg) dose-dependently increased responding for the large reinforcer, shifting the discounting curve rightward and upward. Repeated administration of flunitrazepam (0.32, 1.0 and 3.2 mg/kg, each for six sessions, separated by one session during which vehicle was administered) did not markedly alter its effects on responding for the large reinforcer, indicating that the development of tolerance to this effect of flunitrazepam is modest under these conditions.     

The ecological rationality of delay tolerance: insights from capuchin monkeys

Both human and non-human animals often face decisions between options available at different times, and the capacity of delaying gratification has usually been considered one of the features distinguishing humans from other animals. However, this characteristic can widely vary across individuals, species, and types of task and it is still unclear whether it is accounted for by phylogenetic relatedness, feeding ecology, social structure, or metabolic rate. To disentangle these hypotheses, we evaluated temporal preferences in capuchin monkeys, South-American primates that, despite splitting off from human lineage approximately 35 million years ago, show striking behavioural analogies with the great apes. Then, we compared capuchins’ performance with that of the other primate species tested so far with the same procedure. Overall, capuchins showed a delay tolerance significantly higher than closely related species, such as marmosets and tamarins, and comparable to that shown by great apes. Capuchins’ tool use abilities might explain their comparatively high preference for delayed options in inter-temporal choices. Moreover, as in humans, capuchin females showed a greater delay tolerance than males, possibly because of their less opportunistic foraging style. Thus, our results shed light on the evolutionary origins of self-control supporting explanations of delay tolerance in terms of feeding ecology.     

A policy maker’s dilemma: Preventing terrorism or preventing blame

Although anti-terrorism policy should be based on a normative treatment of risk that incorporates likelihoods of attack, policy makers’ anti-terror decisions may be influenced by the blame they expect from failing to prevent attacks. We show that people’s anti-terror budget priorities before a perceived attack and blame judgments after a perceived attack are associated with the attack’s severity and how upsetting it is but largely independent of its likelihood. We also show that anti-terror budget priorities are influenced by directly highlighting the likelihood of the attack, but because of outcome biases, highlighting the attack’s prior likelihood has no influence on judgments of blame, severity, or emotion after an attack is perceived to have occurred. Thus, because of accountability effects, we propose policy makers face a dilemma: prevent terrorism using normative methods that incorporate the likelihood of attack or prevent blame by preventing terrorist attacks the public find most blameworthy.     

Public attitudes toward stuttering in Turkey: probability versus convenience sampling

Purpose: A Turkish translation of the Public Opinion Survey of Human Attributes-Stuttering (POSHA-S) was used to compare probability versus convenience sampling to measure public attitudes toward stuttering. Method: A convenience sample of adults in Eski?ehir, Turkey was compared with two replicates of a school-based, probability cluster sampling scheme. Results: The two replicates of the probability sampling scheme yielded similar demographic samples, both of which were different from the convenience sample. Components of subscores on the POSHA-S were significantly different in more than half of the comparisons between convenience and probability samples, indicating important differences in public attitudes. Conclusions. If POSHA-S users intend to generalize to specific geographic areas, results of this study indicate that probability sampling is a better research strategy than convenience sampling.Educational objectives: The reader will be able to: (1) discuss the difference between convenience sampling and probability sampling; (2) describe a school-based probability sampling scheme; and (3) describe differences in POSHA-S results from convenience sampling versus probability sampling.     

Timing of retirement: Including a delay discounting perspective in retirement models

This research examined the influence of delay and anticipated health and enjoyment on the amount of retirement savings sacrificed for early retirement. In addition to testing and supporting predictions that willingness to sacrifice retirement savings would be less with shorter delays to retirement, greater anticipated health, and greater anticipated enjoyment, an individual difference delay discounting measure derived from experimental studies was used to extend the Beehr, Glazer, Nielson, and Farmer’s (2000) model of retirement age. We predicted and found that oldest preferred retirement age related to personal characteristics, current work factors, future retirement factors, and individual differences in delay discounting, with greater delay discounting being associated with a younger preferred retirement age. Findings suggest that delay discounting is an important consideration in retirement planning and also highlight the significance that retirement expectations and being tired of work have in affecting one’s preferred retirement age.     

Differences between probability and frequency judgments: The role of individual differences in working memory capacity

Most theories of probability judgment assume that judgments are made by comparing the strength of a focal hypothesis relative to the strength of alternative hypotheses. In contrast, research suggests that frequency judgments are assessed using a non-comparative process; the strength of the focal hypothesis is assessed without comparing it to the strength of alternative hypotheses. We tested this distinction between probability and frequency judgments using the alternative outcomes paradigm (Windschitl, Young, & Jenson, 2002). Assuming that judgments of probability (but not judgments of frequency) entail comparing the focal hypothesis with alternative hypotheses, we hypothesized that probability judgments would be sensitive to the distribution of the alternative hypotheses and would be negatively correlated with individual differences in working memory (WM) capacity. In contrast, frequency judgments should be unrelated to the distribution of the alternatives and uncorrelated with WM-capacity. Results supported the hypotheses.     

Measuring delay discounting in a crowdsourced sample: An exploratory study

Delay discounting is a measure of preferences for smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards. Discounting has been assessed in many ways; these methods have variably and inconsistently involved measures of different lengths (single vs. multiple items), forced‐choice methods, self‐report methods, online and laboratory assessments, monetary and non‐monetary compensation. The majority of these studies have been conducted in laboratory settings. However, over the past 20 years, behavioral data collection has increasingly shifted online. Usually, these experiments involve completing short tasks for small amounts of money, and are thus qualitatively different than experiments in the lab, which are typically more involved and in a strongly controlled environment. The present study aimed to determine how to best measure future discounting in a crowdsourced sample using three discounting measures (a single shot measure, the 27‐item Kirby Monetary Choice Questionnaire, and a one‐time Matching Task). We examined associations of these measures with theoretically related variables, and assessed influence of payment on responding. Results indicated that correlations between the discounting tasks and conceptually related measures were smaller than in prior laboratory experiments. Moreover, our results suggest providing monetary compensation may attenuate correlations between discounting measures and related variables. These findings suggest that incentivizing discounting measures changes the nature of measurement in these tasks.     

Not as gloomy as we thought: reassessing how the public understands probability of precipitation forecasts

Prior research on probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts showed that many people wrongfully believe that PoP forecasts are derived from a percentage of time, a percentage of a region or the strength of agreement among forecasters. We posit that the wording of interpretation selection tasks matters, because different response options are associated with different metacognitive feelings. We hypothesised that the incorrect PoP interpretations are more often chosen by participants because they are more fluent than the correct PoP interpretation. We assessed the role of fluency in correctness perception (Study 1) and reassessed PoP interpretations with a more fluent correct interpretation (Study 2). Fluency perception was positively related with perception of correctness. Furthermore, participants selected the correct fluent interpretation more often than the correct disfluent one. We have drawn a more optimistic picture of people’s PoP forecasts understanding than that shown before and have discussed the methodological and applied implications.