Accounting for Time Preference in Management Decisions: An Application to Invasive Species

Managers of invasive species seek to prevent and mitigate their impact, which vary in the time horizon over which they are realized. Likewise, stakeholders vary in the time horizons they consider relevant. Agricultural impacts might reasonably be considered over two or three decades, although ecologists typically consider environmental impacts over much longer time frames. Although time preference plays a critical role in decision making, it has largely been ignored in multicriteria analyses. In this study, we examine how time has been treated in previous decision analyses of invasive species management, focusing on the differences between multicriteria and economic cost–benefit analyses. We then outline a method for incorporating time preference information into multicriteria decision analyses to ensure that criteria weights remain a faithful representation of the decision maker's preferences. To illustrate how time preference can be elicited for invasive species problems involving both monetary and nonmonetary consequences, we describe a small empirical study we conducted with a small group of experts and managers. By outlining a way to consider time preference information in multicriteria analyses of invasive species management, we hope to facilitate better decision making that is reflective of the decision maker's true preferences. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Smokers discount their drug of abuse in the same way as other consumable rewards

Recent research shows that drug abusers discount delayed monetary rewards more than nonabusers do, and they discount delayed substances of abuse (e.g., drugs) more than delayed money. Furthermore, non-drug-abusers discount food and substances of abuse (e.g., alcohol), more than money. Here, we compare the delay and probability discounting of money with that of a directly consumable reward (chocolate) and with that of a substance of abuse (cigarettes), in a drug-using population (smokers). In line with previous research, we found in two experiments that delay discounting differentiated between smokers and nonsmokers, and between money and a nonabused directly consumable reward (chocolate). In addition, our results show that there appears to be no difference in the extent to which smokers discount their abused substance compared to another directly consumable reward. These findings support the contention that drugs and food are part of the same category of primary reinforcers, whereas money is discounted differently, as a conditioned reinforcer.     

Math Weaknesses in Survivors of Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Compared to Healthy Children

Difficulties in math are the most frequently reported area of academic deficit in survivors of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and the most frequent academic complaint among parents of ALL survivors. However, previous studies that included measures of math skills have been limited by the use of only a single measure of math skills, most often a measure of written calculations, without any assessment of math reasoning or math application skills. Further, the nature of these math difficulties has not been adequately investigated. The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of ALL survivors using multiple measures of math skills. Performance was compared to a group of healthy controls matched for age and sex as well as to normative levels. Other measures of neuropsychological function were also administered, and the relationships between these measures and the math measures were explored. Converging evidence for math difficulties in ALL survivors compared to healthy controls and normative levels was found. While ALL survivors generally performed within the average range on measures of math skills, math performance was mostly related to memory function and dominant-hand psychomotor speed. By contrast, math performance of healthy children was mostly related to basic reading skills and visual-motor integration. These findings shed light on the nature of math difficulties in ALL survivors and have implications for intervention.     

From data through discount rates to the area under the curve

The rate of discounting future goods is a crucial factor in intertemporal trade-offs, upon which depends not only individual well-being but also that of our planet: How much privation now for a temperate future for our grandchildren? What is the best way to measure how the value of future goods decreases with its delay? The most accurate discount functions involve several covarying parameters, making interpretation equivocal. A universal and robust measure is the area under the discount curve, the AuC. The AuC of a hyperbolic discount function is a logarithmic function of the discount rate, k. The same integral also approximates the area under a hyperboloid function. A simple technique converts each datum into estimates of the discount rate, eliminating rogue data points in the process. These trimmed estimates are converted into areas and tested against data, where they succeed at predicting the AuC and its relation to log(k).     

Problematic mobile phone use as impulsive choice: Development and empirical verification of a reinforcer-pathology model

Problematic mobile phone use is characterized by its “impulsive” nature; users engage in it despite their negative attitude toward it. From a behavioral-economic perspective, this attitude–behavior discrepancy is generated by competing contingencies that involve smaller-sooner social reinforcers associated with mobile phone use and larger-later prosocial reinforcers potentially compromised by phone use. Based on this conceptualization, the reinforcer-pathology model of problematic mobile phone use is proposed, which posits that such phone use stems from excessive delay discounting of the social and prosocial reinforcers and/or excessive demand for the social reinforcers. A secondary data analysis of previously published studies was conducted, with the novel addition of principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis of these data. The results generated evidence that supports the reinforcer-pathology model proposed in this article. Based on the theoretical analyses and accumulated empirical evidence, theory-driven prevention and intervention strategies for problematic mobile phone use are proposed. Overall, the reinforcer-pathology model of problematic mobile phone use provides a comprehensive framework for understanding and addressing this growing issue.     

Utilizing probabilities as decision weights in closed and open information boards: A comparison of children and adults

Decisions in preschoolers (6 years), elementary schoolers (9.7 years), and adults (21 years) were studied with an information board crossing three probabilistic cues (validities: .83, .67, .50) with two options. Experiment 1 (n = 215) applied a standard version of the information board (closed presentation format), in which information must be searched sequentially and kept in mind for the decision. Experiment 2 (n = 217) applied an open format (Glöckner & Betsch, 2008), in which all information was visible during decision making. Elementary schoolers but not preschoolers benefited from an open format — indicated by an increase in using probabilities as decision weights. In the open but not closed format, choices were biased by normatively irrelevant information (the lure). Variations in the prediction patterns of the cues influenced decisions in all age groups. Effects for presentation format, pattern, and lure jointly indicate that even children are capable of considering multiple information in their decisions.