The defeasible nature of coherentist justification

The impossibility results of Bovens and Hartmann (2003, Bayesian epistemology. Oxford: Clarendon Press) and Olsson (2005, Against coherence: Truth, probability and justification. Oxford: Oxford University Press.) show that the link between coherence and probability is not as strong as some have supposed. This paper is an attempt to bring out a way in which coherence reasoning nevertheless can be justified, based on the idea that, even if it does not provide an infallible guide to probability, it can give us an indication thereof. It is further shown that this actually is the case, for several of the coherence measures discussed in the literature so far. We also discuss how this affects the possibility to use coherence as a means of epistemic justification.     

A mechanism for reducing delay discounting by altering temporal attention

Rewards that are not immediately available are discounted compared to rewards that are immediately available. The more a person discounts a delayed reward, the more likely that person is to have a range of behavioral problems, including clinical disorders. This latter observation has motivated the search for interventions that reduce discounting. One surprisingly simple method to reduce discounting is an "explicit-zero" reframing that states default or null outcomes. Reframing a classical discounting choice as "something now but nothing later" versus "nothing now but more later" decreases discount rates. However, it is not clear how this "explicit-zero" framing intervention works. The present studies delineate and test two possible mechanisms to explain the phenomenon. One mechanism proposes that the explicit-zero framing creates the impression of an improving sequence, thereby enhancing the present value of the delayed reward. A second possible mechanism posits an increase in attention allocation to temporally distant reward representations. In four experiments, we distinguish between these two hypothesized mechanisms and conclude that the temporal attention hypothesis is superior for explaining our results. We propose a model of temporal attention whereby framing affects intertemporal preferences by modifying present bias.     

A Measure of Delay Discounting Within the Academic Domain

It is important to better understand the decision‐making processes involved in student procrastination, in order to develop interventions that reduce this common problem. Students may procrastinate because studying produces delayed reinforcers; however, no task measuring delay discounting of academic outcomes currently exists. In Experiment 1, we developed and piloted a measure of academic discounting modeled on titrating‐amount tasks successfully used in the discounting literature. Participants made hypothetical choices between working for money (the smaller, sooner reinforcer) and working on an assignment that was due at various times (the larger, later reinforcer). Participants showed systematic decreases in the subjective value of the assignment as a function of delay, and the hyperbolic and hyperboloid models described the shape of this decrease in value well. In general, larger delayed rewards are discounted less steeply than smaller delayed rewards (the magnitude effect). In Experiment 2, we observed the magnitude effect in academic discounting: Participants discounted a “not important” assignment more steeply than an “important” assignment. In the hyperboloid model, this change was captured by an increase in the s parameter. Results provide support for the validity of the academic discounting task. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gambling and Delay Discounting in Japanese Students

The present study examined the relationship between gambling behavior and delay discounting with Japanese residents. Japanese university students were selected into pathological gambler and non‐gambling control groups using a Japanese version of the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In a discounting task, participants chose individually between a large delayed reward and a smaller immediate reward with varied delays. The discounting rate (k‐value) and the area under the curve were significantly higher and smaller, respectively, for the gambler group than for the control group. These findings show that Japanese gamblers discount delayed rewards more steeply than non‐gambling controls, as has been found in U.S. residents.     

Future anhedonia and time discounting

The temporal location of an event influences the way people mentally represent that event. We suggest (a) that such representational differences can produce an affective forecasting error that we call future anhedonia, which is the belief that hedonic states will be less intense in the future than in the present, and (b) that future anhedonia plays a role in time discounting (i.e., the tendency to place a smaller present value on present events than on future events). Experiments 1a and 1b demonstrated that people are prone to future anhedonia, Experiments 2a and 2b ruled out artifactual alternatives, and Experiments 3a and 3b demonstrated that future anhedonia plays a role in time discounting. These studies suggest that one reason why people prefer to enjoy benefits in the present and pay costs in the future is that they do not realize how they will feel when those costs and benefits are actually experienced.     

Academic procrastination: The pattern and correlates of behavioural postponement

Using a series of computer-based assignments, we examined whether students’ submission patterns revealed a hyperbolic pattern of temporal discounting, such that few assignments are submitted far ahead of the deadline and submission of assignments accelerates at an increasing rate as the deadline becomes imminent. We further examined whether variables related to self-regulation – namely, self-reported procrastination, implementation intentions, say-do correspondence, and perceived academic control – correlated with behavioural postponement. Results revealed strong behavioural evidence of temporal discounting, especially among those who identified themselves as procrastinators. Among the self-regulation measures, only say-do correspondence consistently correlated with procrastination.     

Inequality in personality and temporal discounting across socioeconomic status? Assessing the evidence

Personality traits such as conscientiousness and impulsivity correlate with temporal discounting, the degree to which individuals discount the value of future relative to present rewards. These variables have, in turn, been hypothesized to relate to income inequality in the United States. A key but untested assumption of this hypothesis is that the association among these variables is distinct across socioeconomic classes. The purpose of the present research is to test that assumption. N = 1100 adults with annual income ranging from at or below the poverty line ($0–$20,000) to upper-middle class ($200,000+) completed personality measures and a measure of temporal discounting. The results of our preregistered analyses indicated a positive association of income with trait planfulness, and a negative association with trait impulsivity and one parameter of temporal discounting that captures a bias to prefer sooner rewards to a greater degree if they are delivered that day. Our results can inform psychological theories of inequality and a broader conversation about effective public policy.     

Self-regulation during a single performance episode: Mood-as-information in the absence of formal feedback

This investigation used a daily diary methodology to examine goal revision and effort allocation processes over a single, 2-weeks performance episode in which individuals prepared for a course exam. Growth curve modeling revealed that daily goal exhibited a curvilinear trend in which it was stable and relatively high at the beginning of the time period, but rapidly declined as the exam approached. Daily effort exhibited a trend opposite of the goal trend, remaining low and relatively stable at the beginning and increasingly rapidly as the exam approached. Current mood predicted daily goal revision, with positive mood being positively related to goal revision and negative mood being negatively related to goal revision. The traits of behavioral activation system (BAS) sensitivity and behavioral inhibition system (BIS) sensitivity moderated within-person relationships of positive and negative mood with goal revision. Simultaneous and lagged relationships among mood, goals, and daily effort were also examined.     

Delay discounting in Lewis and Fischer 344 rats: steady-state and rapid-determination adjusting-amount procedures

Lewis rats have been shown to make more impulsive choices than Fischer 344 rats in discrete-trial choice procedures that arrange fixed (i.e., nontitrating) reinforcement parameters. However, nontitrating procedures yield only gross estimates of preference, as choice measures in animal subjects are rarely graded at the level of the individual subject. The present study was designed to examine potential strain differences in delay discounting using an adjusting-amount procedure, in which distributed (rather than exclusive) choice is observed due to dynamic titration of reinforcer magnitude across trials. Using a steady-state version of the adjusting-amount procedure in which delay was manipulated between experimental conditions, steeper delay discounting was observed in Lewis rats compared to Fischer 344 rats; further, delay discounting in both strains was well described by the traditional hyperbolic discounting model. However, upon partial completion of the present study, a study published elsewhere (Wilhelm & Mitchell, 2009) demonstrated no difference in delay discounting between these strains with the use of a more rapid version of the adjusting-amount procedure (i.e., in which delay is manipulated daily). Thus, following completion of the steady-state assessment in the present study, all surviving Lewis and Fischer 344 rats completed an approximation of this rapid-determination procedure in which no strain difference in delay discounting was observed.     

Personality and behavioral outcomes associated with risk-taking are accurately inferred from faces

Growing evidence suggests that people are able to accurately infer some personality traits and behavioral outcomes from facial photographs. However, little research has examined whether people are able to accurately infer personality traits or behavioral outcomes associated with risk-taking. In this study, we examined whether people were able to accurately infer, on average, others’ personality traits associated with risk-taking from facial photographs. We further examined whether such first impressions were associated with relevant and important behavioral outcomes—specifically, future discounting and gambling and problem gambling tendencies. Results suggest that people are able to accurately infer, on average, some personality traits and behavioral outcomes associated with risk-taking from faces.