Is predictive processing a theory of perceptual consciousness?

Predictive Processing theory, hotly debated in neuroscience, psychology and philosophy, promises to explain a number of perceptual and cognitive phenomena in a simple and elegant manner. In some of its versions, the theory is ambitiously advertised as a new theory of conscious perception. The task of this paper is to assess whether this claim is realistic. We will be arguing that the Predictive Processing theory cannot explain the transition from unconscious to conscious perception in its proprietary terms. The explanations offered by PP theorists mostly concern the preconditions of conscious perception, leaving the genuine material substrate of consciousness untouched.     

A selectionist explanation for the success and failures of science

I argue that van Fraassen’s selectionist explanation for the success of science is superior to the realists’ explanation. Whereas realists argue that our current theories are successful because they accurately reflect the structure of the world, the selectionist claims that our current theories are successful because unsuccessful theories have been eliminated. I argue that, unlike the explanation proposed by the realist, the selectionist explanation can also account for the failures of once successful theories and the fact that sometimes two competing theories are both equally successful.

Capturing worry in daily life: are trait questionnaires sufficient?

Worry is crucial in the development and maintenance of anxiety disorders and has been associated with several other adverse health outcomes. Yet, little is known about the frequency and perseveration of worry in daily life, and its predictability by widely used trait questionnaires. In this study 432 students completed the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (PSWQ), the Worry Domains Questionnaire (WDQ) and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-Trait version (STAI-T) and kept a log of worry frequency and duration during six consecutive days and nights. The results showed that worry is a very common phenomenon that is predicted by the two trait worry questionnaires, independent of trait anxiety. The often clinically utilized PSWQ predicted worry duration better than the WDQ, and exclusively predicted night-time worry and several other indices of perseverative and potentially pathogenic worry. Although this study provides some support for the predictive validity of the PSWQ and the WDQ, these questionnaires did not account for the larger part of variance in daily worry. Future studies of worry and its associated perseverative processes should consider using momentary assessments.     

Learning and memory facilitate predictive tracking in 4-month-olds

We investigated 4-month-olds’ oculomotor anticipations when viewing occlusion stimuli consisting of a small target that moved back and forth repetitively while the center of its trajectory was occluded by a rectangular screen. We examined performance under five conditions. In the baseline condition, infants produced few predictive relative to reactive eye movements. In the full training condition, anticipations were increased in frequency following prior exposure to a target moving along a fully visible trajectory. The delay condition tested the effects of training after a 30-min interval elapsed between training and test, resulting in a return to baseline performance. However, the training effect was reinstated in the reminder condition following another brief exposure to the training stimulus prior to test. Finally, in the brief training condition, we found that the brief exposure alone was insufficient to induce the training effect. Results are interpreted in the context of learning from short-term experience and long-term memory.     

The cognitive penetrability of perception: A blocked debate and a tentative solution

Despite the extensive body of psychological findings suggesting that cognition influences perception, the debate between defenders and detractors of the cognitive penetrability of perception persists. While detractors demand more strictness in psychological experiments, proponents consider that empirical studies show that cognitive penetrability occurs. These considerations have led some theorists to propose that the debate has reached a dead end. The issue about where perception ends and cognition begins is, I argue, one of the reasons why the debate is cornered. Another reason is the inability of psychological studies to present uncontroversial interpretations of the results obtained. To dive into other kinds of empirical sources is, therefore, required to clarify the debate. In this paper, I explain where the debate is blocked, and suggest that neuroscientific evidence together with the predictive coding account, might decant the discussion on the side of the penetrability thesis.     

Information‐Theoretic Properties of Auditory Sequences Dynamically Influence Expectation and Memory

A basic function of cognition is to detect regularities in sensory input to facilitate the prediction and recognition of future events. It has been proposed that these implicit expectations arise from an internal predictive coding model, based on knowledge acquired through processes such as statistical learning, but it is unclear how different types of statistical information affect listeners’ memory for auditory stimuli. We used a combination of behavioral and computational methods to investigate memory for non‐linguistic auditory sequences. Participants repeatedly heard tone sequences varying systematically in their information‐theoretic properties. Expectedness ratings of tones were collected during three listening sessions, and a recognition memory test was given after each session. Information‐theoretic measures of sequential predictability significantly influenced listeners’ expectedness ratings, and variations in these properties had a significant impact on memory performance. Predictable sequences yielded increasingly better memory performance with increasing exposure. Computational simulations using a probabilistic model of auditory expectation suggest that listeners dynamically formed a new, and increasingly accurate, implicit cognitive model of the information‐theoretic structure of the sequences throughout the experimental session.     

The effect of time constraints and personality facets on general cognitive ability (GCA) assessment

General cognitive ability (GCA) is a recognized construct for predicting job performance and capacity to learn. However, it has recently been argued that the time constraints under which GCA is assessed might provoke test anxiety, which negatively biases GCA scores. This can then lead to erroneous rejection of qualified candidates in personnel hiring contexts. This paper aimed to investigate: (1) to what extent candidates’ GCA scores increase when tested without time constraints and the ability of this GCA score to predict job performance; and (2) the personality characteristics that hinder GCA test performance under time constraints. Results from two field studies conducted in an actual personnel selection context partially confirmed the hypotheses. They revealed that, aside from the improvement of all candidates’ GCA scores when time constraint was removed, only GCA assessed without time constraints predicts job performance. Furthermore, while all candidates’ scores were influenced by the time constraint condition, individuals who are anxious, low-impulse, low value-questioning and deliberating are more penalized by the time constraint condition of such testing and, thus, are more likely to be erroneously eliminated in a selection process.     

The effect of predictive history on the learning of sub-sequence contingencies

Two experiments demonstrated that the prior predictive history of a cue governs the extent to which that cue engages in sequence learning. Using a serial reaction time task, we manipulated the predictiveness of the stimulus locations (cues) with respect to the location of the stimulus on the next trial (outcome), such that half of the cues were good predictors of their outcomes, whilst the other half were poorer predictors. Following this, all cues were then paired with novel outcomes. Learning about those cues that were previously established as good predictors proceeded more rapidly than learning for those cues previously established as poor predictors. When the simple recurrent network is modified to include a variable associability parameter, the effects are easily modelled.     

The Reliability,Validity, Discriminant and Predictive Properties of the Social Phobia Inventory (SoPhI)

This paper reports on the psychometric properties of the Social Phobic Inventory (SoPhI) a 21-item scale that was designed to measure social anxiety according to the criteria of DSM-IV (American Psychiatric Association, APA (1994) Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorder , 4th Edn., Washington). Factor analysis of the SoPhI using data from a clinical sample of respondents with social phobia revealed one factor which explained approximately 59% of variance and which demonstrated strong internal reliability ( f = 0.93). The SoPhI demonstrated concurrent validity with the SPAI ( r = 0.86) and convergent validity with the Fear of Negative Evaluations-Revised ( r = 0.68). The predictive utility of the scale was demonstrated in a sample of university students classified as extroverted, normal, shy/introverted, and phobic/withdrawn ( m 2 57%). Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) revealed that the combined university sample differed from the clinical sample on the summated scores on the SoPhI and that 43% ( m 2 ) of this difference was attributable to group membership. This figure rose to 58% attributable to group membership when these same groups were compared for differences on the 21 individual items. Scores of the SoPhI that are indicative of concern and of possible diagnostic criteria, as well as suggestions for future research, are discussed.