Random error in holistic evaluations and additive decompositions of multiattribute utility — an empirical comparison

This paper details the results of an empirical investigation of the random errors associated with decomposition estimates of multiattribute utility. In a riskless setting, two groups of subjects were asked to evaluate multiattribute alternatives both holistically and with the use of an additive decomposition. For one group, the alternatives were described in terms of three attributes, and for the other in terms of five. Estimates of random error associated with the various elicitations (holistic, single-attribute utility, scaling constants, or weights) were obtained using a test-retest format. It was found for both groups that the additive decomposition had significantly smaller levels of random error than the holistic evaluation. However, the number of attributes did not seem to make a significant difference to the amount of random error associated with the decomposition estimates. The levels of error found in the various elicitations were consistent with theoretical bounds that have recently been proposed in the literature. These results show that the structure imposed on the problem through decomposition results in measurable improvement in quality of the multiattribute utility judgements, and contribute to a greater understanding of the decomposition method in decision analysis.     

Choice As A Function Of Reinforcement Ratios In Delayed Matching-to-sample

Pigeons were studied in two experiments using a delayed matching-to-sample task. In Experiment 1, 4 subjects were exposed to a task in which the proportion of reinforcement associated with matching and nonmatching, and the overall proportion of reinforcement associated with selecting each choice, regardless of the sample stimulus, were varied. Choice was sensitive to both proportions. A least squares regression analysis showed that Wixted's (1989) proportions of reinforcement model closely fit the data from Experiment 1; however, the model failed to make accurate qualitative predictions for some test conditions. In Experiment 2, 4 subjects were exposed to a delayed matching-to-sample task in which the retention intervals and the reduction in delay to reinforcement signaled by the onset of the sample stimulus were independently varied. When the retention interval was short and when the delay-reduction value of the sample stimulus was high, the sample exerted greater control over choice; the control by the overall proportion of reinforcements for selecting each choice stimulus was correspondingly low. Conversely, when the retention interval was long and the delay-reduction value of the sample stimulus was low, the sample exerted relatively less control over choice; control by the overall proportion of reinforcements obtained for selecting each choice stimulus was correspondingly high. A signal detection analysis found that sensitivity to reinforcement varied directly with retention interval. Data were also consistent with misallocation models. No evidence was found to suggest that pigeons ignore the rate at which selecting individual choice stimuli is reinforced, as has been reported in studies with human subjects.     

Projection of a binary criterion into a model of hierarchical classes

A formal analysis is made of how to project an attribute criterion into the hierarchical classes model for object by attribute data proposed by De Boeck and Rosenberg. The projection is conceptualized as the prediction of the attribute criterion by means of a logical rule defined on the basis of attribute combinations from the model. Eliminative and constructive strategies are proposed to find logical rules with maximal predictive power and minimal formula complexity. Logical analyses of a real data set are reported and compared with a logistic regression to demonstrate the usefulness of the logical strategies, and to show the complementarity of logical and probabilistic approaches.The first suthor is Senior Research Assistant of the National Fund for Scientific Research (Belgium). We would like to thank the Editor, the reviewers, Seymour Rosenberg, and Luc Delbeke for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this article.     

Analytic smoothing for equipercentile equating under the common item nonequivalent populations design

A cubic spline method for smoothing equipercentile equating relationships under the common item nonequivalent populations design is described. Statistical techniques based on bootstrap estimation are presented that are designed to aid in choosing an equating method/degree of smoothing. These include: (a) asymptotic significance tests that compare no equating and linear equating to equipercentile equating; (b) a scheme for estimating total equating error and for dividing total estimated error into systematic and random components. The smoothing technique and statistical procedures are explored and illustrated using data from forms of a professional certification test.     

Retrospective questions and correlations

In survey research it is not uncommon to ask questions of the following type: “How many times did you undertake actiona in reference periodT of length τ?.” The relationship is established between τ and the correlation of the number of reported actions with some background variable. To this end it is assumed that the process of actions satisfies a renewal model with individual heterogeneity. Also a model has to be formulated for possible recall effects. Applications are given in the field of medical consumption.     

On the use of bisection procedures in animal psychophysical scaling

The ability of bisection procedures to specify the form of the psychophysical scale depends upon the precision of the technique. It is demonstrated that the precision of bisection techniques is a function of the stimulus interval bisected. Consequently, the choice of stimuli in a bisection experiment may predispose the ability of the experiment to distinguish between alternative psychophysical scales. The testing of interval scale properties of derived scales and the assessment of context effects in bisection experiments was also discussed.This material has been reviewed by the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, and there is no objection to its presentation and/or publication. The opinions or assertions contained herein are the private views of the author and are not to be construed as official or as reflecting the view of the Department of the Army or the Department of Defense.     

Statistical inference for false positive and false negative error rates in mastery testing

This paper describes an asymptotic inferential procedure for the estimates of the false positive and false negative error rates. Formulas and tables are described for the computations of the standard errors. A simulation study indicates that the asymptotic standard errors may be used even with samples of 25 cases as long as the Kuder-Richardson Formula 21 reliability is reasonably large. Otherwise, a large sample would be required.This work was performed pursuant to Grant No NIE-G-78-0087 with the National Institute of Education, Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Huynh Huynh, Principal Investigator. Points of view or opinions stated do not necessarily reflect NIE position or policy and no official endorsement should be inferred. The editorial assistance of Joseph C. Saunders is gratefully acknowledged.     

Do early lexical skills predict language outcome at 3 years? A longitudinal study of French-speaking children

Early language development is considered critical for children’s adjustment in school, for social adaptation and for later educational achievement. Despite the role of children’s receptive skills as a foundation for later productive word use, receptive language skills have received surprisingly little attention. The present research extends recent work on the prediction of preschool language skills by exploring whether a decontextualized measure of lexical comprehension can account for unique variance in preschool language skills above and beyond parent report and how early such a prediction can be made. For this purpose, 65 French-speaking children have been tested at 16, 22, 29 and 36 months.The results of the current study suggest that up to the age of two, although parent reports of lexical comprehension and/or production account for a portion of variance in later receptive, productive or general language outcome, they have less predictive validity than a direct measure of early lexical comprehension. By contrast, after age two, parent reported vocabulary production is the strongest predictor of later language production skills.