Probabilistic reasoning in prediction and diagnosis: Effects of problem type,response mode,and individual differences

In prediction, subset relations require that the probability of conjoined events is never higher than that of constituent events. However, people's judgments regularly violate this principle, producing conjunction errors. In diagnosis, the probability of a hypothesis normatively is often higher for conjoined cues. An online survey used a within‐subjects design to explore the degree to which participants (n = 347) differentiated diagnosis and prediction using matched scenarios and both choice and estimation responses. Conjunctions were judged more probable than a constituent in diagnosis (76%) more often than prediction (64%) and in choice (84%) more often than direct estimation (57%), with no interaction of type of task and response mode. Correlation, regression, and path analyses were used to determine the relationships among individual difference variables and the diagnosis and prediction tasks. Among the correlation findings was that time spent on the task predicted higher conjunction probabilities in diagnosis but not prediction and that class inclusion errors predicted increased conjunction errors in choice but not estimation. Need for cognition and numeracy were only minimally related to reasoning about conjunctions. Results are consistent with the idea that people may misapply diagnostic reasoning to the prediction task and consequently commit the conjunction error. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

人文医学的视角：裘法祖误诊误治思想初探——兼论医学伦理道德

本文结合裘法祖的相关论述,对裘法祖的误诊误治思想进行梳理勾连。认为裘法祖这一重要医学思想内涵是要勇于总结医学当中的误诊误治、老专家要“真心帮助青年人”,要学习国外经验,但也不能枉自菲薄,这一思想在当代医学医德教育当中有重要的启示意义。     

错误正波的神经发生源与功能意义解释

错误正波(error positivity, Pe)是指在错误反应后200~600ms后出现的事件相关电位(ERP)的正偏转, 对Pe的研究有助于揭示人类错误加工机制的全貌。现有研究表明Pe主要产生于前扣带回喙部, 但不同的研究对其精细神经发生源并没有达成一致。Pe的功能意义解释主要有错误意识假说、行为适应假说、情绪评估假说。当根据有关P3的理论来解释Pe的功能意义时, Pe可能反映了对错误背景的刷新。然而上述每一种对Pe的功能意义的解释都还受到了一些研究结果的质疑和挑战。基于此, 作者对现有研究存在的问题进行了总结和分析, 并对今后如何对Pe的神经发生源和功能意义的进一步研究提出了建议。     

年幼儿童的尺寸匹配误差现象

近十年来,尺寸匹配误差作为年幼儿童生活中的一种常见的尺寸误用现象逐渐受到了一些研究者的关注。现有研究主要集中在尺寸匹配误差的特点、出现频率和产生原因等方面。抑制控制的失败、神经通路的协调失败、“计划-控制”模型和“感觉-行动”模型、功能性推理偏好以及身体意识发展的不成熟等观点能够对某些类型的尺寸匹配误差现象做出解释。未来的研究应从进一步深入探讨尺寸匹配误差与假装的区别、完善研究方法以及跨文化研究的开展几方面进行。     

Reducing Measurement Error in Student Achievement Estimation

The achievement level is a variable measured with error, that can be estimated by means of the Rasch model. Teacher grades also measure the achievement level but they are expressed on a different scale. This paper proposes a method for combining these two scores to obtain a synthetic measure of the achievement level based on the theory developed for regression with covariate measurement error. In particular, the focus is on ordinal scaled grades, using the SIMEX method for measurement error correction. The result is a measure comparable across subjects with smaller measurement error variance. An empirical application illustrates the method.     

Expectation-based syntactic comprehension

This paper investigates the role of resource allocation as a source of processing difficulty in human sentence comprehension. The paper proposes a simple information-theoretic characterization of processing difficulty as the work incurred by resource reallocation during parallel, incremental, probabilistic disambiguation in sentence comprehension, and demonstrates its equivalence to the theory of Hale [Hale, J. (2001). A probabilistic Earley parser as a psycholinguistic model. In Proceedings of NAACL (Vol. 2, pp. 159-166)], in which the difficulty of a word is proportional to its surprisal (its negative log-probability) in the context within which it appears. This proposal subsumes and clarifies findings that high-constraint contexts can facilitate lexical processing, and connects these findings to well-known models of parallel constraint-based comprehension. In addition, the theory leads to a number of specific predictions about the role of expectation in syntactic comprehension, including the reversal of locality-based difficulty patterns in syntactically constrained contexts, and conditions under which increased ambiguity facilitates processing. The paper examines a range of established results bearing on these predictions, and shows that they are largely consistent with the surprisal theory.     

Strategy generalization across orientation tasks: testing a computational cognitive model

Humans use their spatial information processing abilities flexibly to facilitate problem solving and decision making in a variety of tasks. This article explores the question of whether a general strategy can be adapted for performing two different spatial orientation tasks by testing the predictions of a computational cognitive model. Human performance was measured on an orientation task requiring participants to identify the location of a target either on a map (find-on-map) or within an egocentric view of a space (find-in-scene). A general strategy instantiated in a computational cognitive model of the find-on-map task, based on the results from Gunzelmann and Anderson (2006) , was adapted to perform both tasks and used to generate performance predictions for a new study. The qualitative fit of the model to the human data supports the view that participants were able to tailor a general strategy to the requirements of particular spatial tasks. The quantitative differences between the predictions of the model and the performance of human participants in the new experiment expose individual differences in sample populations. The model provides a means of accounting for those differences and a framework for understanding how human spatial abilities are applied to naturalistic spatial tasks that involve reasoning with maps.     

On the Relationships between Sum Score Based Estimation and Joint Maximum Likelihood Estimation

This paper analyzes the sum score based (SSB) formulation of the Rasch model, where items and sum scores of persons are considered as factors in a logit model. After reviewing the evolution leading to the equality between their maximum likelihood estimates, the SSB model is then discussed from the point of view of pseudo-likelihood and of misspecified models. This is then employed to provide new insights into the origin of the known inconsistency of the difficulty parameter estimates in the Rasch model. The main results consist of exact relationships between the estimated standard errors for both models; and, for the ability parameters, an upper bound for the estimated standard errors of the Rasch model in terms of those for the SSB model, which are more easily available. The authors acknowledge partial financial support from the FONDECYT Project No. 1060722 from the Chilean Government, and the BIL05/03 grant to P. De Boeck, E. Lesaffre and G. Molenberghs (Flanders) for a collaboration with G. del Pino, E. San Martín, F. Quintana and J. Manzi (Chile).     

The Bodily Self: The Sensori-Motor Roots of Pre-Reflective Self-Consciousness

A bodily self is characterized by pre-reflective bodily self-consciousness that is “immune to error through misidentification.” To this end, the body's double involvement in consciousness is considered: it can experience objects intentionally and itself non-intentionally. Specifically, pre-reflective bodily self-consciousness, by contrast with the consciousness of the body that happens to be one's own, consists in experiencing one's body as the point of convergence of action and perception. Neither proprioception alone nor intention alone is sufficient to underlie this pre-reflective bodily self-consciousness. Rather, it is made possible thanks to a sensori-motor integration, allowing a sensitivity to the sensory consequences of one's action, through action monitoring.