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941.
David Rios Insua Kazimierz A. Salewicz 《Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis》1995,4(4):203-222
The paper describes a successful application of Bayesian decision analysis to the operation of the Lake Kariba hydropower system. This management problem is complicated by the high uncertainty of the inflow process, multiple and conflicting objectives and the influence of time on some of the parameters in the management task. Inflows to the reservoir are forecast through dynamic linear models. Managerial preferences are modelled through a multiattribute utility function. Since the solution of the exact model is computationally too demanding, a heuristic method is applied to find a feasible control strategy. A comparison with results obtained by methods used previously demonstrates the superiority of the methodology presented here. 相似文献
942.
John Polkinghorne 《Zygon》2005,40(2):513-516
Abstract. Sanborn Brown raised in a preliminary form issues relating to science and religion that have been subjects for increasingly more sophisticated discussion over the intervening forty years. 相似文献
943.
习得无助理论是由美国心理学家马丁.塞里格曼于上世纪60年代提出、而后在美国以至全世界引起广泛研究热潮的一种心理学理论,围绕着习得无助产生的机制及实验操作中的关键变量,形成了许多有价值的理论模型。该研究介绍了这些理论模型的起源、发展与演变.以及无助现象对人们的认知、情绪和动机造成的损害,为我们在临床上诊断和治疗抑郁提供了一个新的视角,同时为预测和矫治学生的习得无肋感提供了方法上的借鉴。 相似文献
944.
In this paper the existence of natural models for a paraconsistent version of naive set theory is discussed. These stand apart from the previous attempts due to the presence of some non-monotonic ingredients in the comprehension scheme they fulfill. Particularly, it is proved here that allowing the equality relation in formulae defining sets, within an extensional universe, compels the use of non-monotonic operators. By reviewing the preceding attempts, we show how our models can naturally be obtained as fixed points of some functor acting on a suitable category (stressing the use of fixed-point arguments in obtaining such alternative semantics). 相似文献
945.
Interpretations of images of the brain are starting to reveal the conceptual tasks in which the person was engaged at the time of imaging. Existing mathematical models can explain the patterns of activity observed in such images in terms of the coherent activity of large populations of neurons, but not in terms of cognition. This paper is an early investigation into how such patterns might provide the internal representations for a cognitive system. Probes, working memories and memories are all represented as images. The accompanying process model describes how attention is set according to the contents of working memory, how attention determines what parts of the probe are memorised, how memories are activated according to similarity to the probe in areas in attention, and how working memory is managed. The model is demonstrated on re-creations of classic simulations of recognition memory and categorisation. 相似文献
946.
We respond to concerns raised by Langdon Gilkey. The discussion addresses the nature of theological thinking today, the question of truth within the situation of pluralism, the identity and difference between theological models and scientific models, and the proposed methods for testing theological models. 相似文献
947.
Aldert Vrij Lucy Akehurst Beverley Smith 《Journal of community & applied social psychology》2003,13(4):284-299
The present study investigated the effects of seven principles drawn from cognitive models of ethnic prejudice, general information processing models and persuasion models, on levels of ethnic prejudice. It was hypothesized that exposure to cue cards incorporating these principles would result in lower levels of prejudice than cue cards which did not incorporate the principles. A total of 400 caucasian participants were randomly assigned to experimental conditions (where participants were exposed to a cue card incorporating or omitting each of the seven principles), or the control condition (with no cue card exposure), and completed a questionnaire measuring ethnic prejudice. Results revealed that the absence of the principles in the cards led in several cases to unwanted negative effects (higher levels of prejudice than the control group). Reasons for these findings and implications for launching poster campaigns to reduce ethnic prejudice are discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
948.
Recent research indicates that managers are not aware of the latest developments in theory regarding the use of personality inventories in personnel selection decisions. This article presents a systematic approach to selecting traits for use in personnel selection that is based on recent developments in hierarchical personality models. Results from a study of real estate sales associates indicate that the new approach does have much to offer the area. Results are discussed along with managerial implications. 相似文献
949.
950.