Speech parts as Poisson processes

This paper presents evidence that six of the seven parts of speech occur in written text as Poisson processes, simple or recurring. The six major parts are nouns, verbs, adjectives, adverbs, prepositions, and conjunctions, with the interjection occurring too infrequently to support a model. The data consist of more than the first 5000 words of works by four major authors coded to label the parts of speech, as well as periods (sentence terminators). Sentence length is measured via the period and found to be normally distributed with no stochastic model identified for its occurrence. The models for all six speech parts but the noun significantly distinguish some pairs of authors and likewise for the joint use of all words types. Any one author is significantly distinguished from any other by at least one word type and sentence length very significantly distinguishes each from all others. The variety of word type use, measured by Shannon entropy, builds to about 90% of its maximum possible value. The rate constants for nouns are close to the fractions of maximum entropy achieved. This finding together with the stochastic models and the relations among them suggest that the noun may be a primitive organizer of written text.     

中国古代心理学思想中的注意问题

本文根据古代思想家的有关言论,探讨了他们的注意心理思想,即注意的慨念。特征,分心与分散,分配与集中,注意与感知、记忆、思维的关系,注意在学习中的作用。     

Multilevel and Latent Variable Modeling with Composite Links and Exploded Likelihoods

Composite links and exploded likelihoods are powerful yet simple tools for specifying a wide range of latent variable models. Applications considered include survival or duration models, models for rankings, small area estimation with census information, models for ordinal responses, item response models with guessing, randomized response models, unfolding models, latent class models with random effects, multilevel latent class models, models with log-normal latent variables, and zero-inflated Poisson models with random effects. Some of the ideas are illustrated by estimating an unfolding model for attitudes to female work participation. We wish to thank The Research Council of Norway for a grant supporting our collaboration.     

A Unified Approach to Power Calculation and Sample Size Determination for Random Regression Models

The underlying statistical models for multiple regression analysis are typically attributed to two types of modeling: fixed and random. The procedures for calculating power and sample size under the fixed regression models are well known. However, the literature on random regression models is limited and has been confined to the case of all variables having a joint multivariate normal distribution. This paper presents a unified approach to determining power and sample size for random regression models with arbitrary distribution configurations for explanatory variables. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method and Monte Carlo simulation studies are also conducted to assess the accuracy. The results show that the proposed method performs well for various model specifications and explanatory variable distributions. The author would like to thank the editor, the associate editor, and the referees for drawing attention to pertinent references that led to improved presentation. This research was partially supported by National Science Council grant NSC-94-2118-M-009-004.     

Delta图分析方法及其在冲突控制研究中的应用

近年来,反应时分布分析方法被应用于冲突控制研究领域,以弥补只计算平均反应时和错误率的不足。所谓delta指的是不一致条件与一致条件反应时之差,即冲突效应量。冲突效应量随反应时间的变化图称为delta图。与该分析方法相应的理论模型包括双通路模型和激活－抑制模型。本文介绍了delta图分析的具体方法及其与冲突控制理论模型的关系,然后列举了有关的研究例证,并强调了其优缺点与适用范围     

Task difficulty and inertial properties of hand-held tools: An assessment of their concurrent effects on precision aiming

Aiming hand-held tools at targets in space entails adjustments in the dynamical organization of aiming patterns according to the required precision. We asked whether and how these adjustments are modified by the tool’s mass distribution. Twelve participants performed reciprocal aiming movements with a 50-cm long wooden probe. Kinematic patterns of probe movements were used as a window into the behavioral dynamic underlying performance of a reciprocal aiming task. We crossed three levels of task difficulty (IDs 2.8, 4.5 and 6.1) with two types of probe varying in their mass distribution (proximal vs distal loading). Movement duration was affected by task difficulty and probe loading (shorter for larger targets and proximal probe loading). Progressive deviations from a sinusoidal movement pattern were observed as task difficulty increased. Such deviations were more pronounced with proximal probe loading. Results point to a higher degree of non-linearity in aiming dynamics when the probe was loaded proximally, which might reflect employment of additional perceptual-motor processes to control the position of its less stable tip at the vicinity of the targets. More generally, the effects of probe loading on aiming pattern and dynamics suggest that perceptual-motor processes responding to task level constraints are sensitive to, and not independent from, biomechanical, end-effector constraints.     

A stochastic model of consideration set sizes

This paper proposes a new model of consideration set sizes, which relies on a stochastic modelling approach to better understand data patterns. The paper combines the Poisson distribution with the lognormal distribution proposed by Hauser and Wernerfelt (1990) to create the Poisson lognormal (PLN) model of consideration set sizes. An advantage of PLN is that it allows variance within a given individual consumer. This is a crucial factor for brand managers who wish to choose a particular market to promote their brand, as a higher within‐individual variance suggests that there is more chance for a consumer to change their consideration set size, whereas a lower within‐individual variance indicates that a consumer tends to stick to his/her consideration set size. The paper then uses 10 datasets including service, durable and fast‐moving consumer goods across four countries to validate the new model and compare it with the lognormal model. The results show that PLN gives a good fit to these data. It outperforms the lognormal model. The average mean absolute percentage error of the PLN model is 12 per cent, whereas that of the lognormal model is 26 per cent. For managerial implications, the paper proposes a better tool to help brand managers analyse the nature and intensity of competition that is facing their brands. Also, relying on its stochastic element, the proposed model can help brand managers predict future brand consideration by their consumers, as well as evaluate any change in brand consideration, caused by marketing activity such as sales promotion and advertising. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Why Bayesian Psychologists Should Change the Way They Use the Bayes Factor

The discussion following Bem’s (2011 Bem, D. J. (2011). Feeling the future: Experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 407–425. doi: 10.1037/a0021524[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) psi research highlights that applications of the Bayes factor in psychological research are not without problems. The first problem is the omission to translate subjective prior knowledge into subjective prior distributions. In the words of Savage (1961 Savage, L. J. (1961). The foundations of statistical inference reconsidered. In J. Neyman, (Ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Volume 1: Contributions to the Theory of Statistics, pp. 575–586. BerkeleyCA: University of California. [Google Scholar]): “they make the Bayesian omelet without breaking the Bayesian egg.” The second problem occurs if the Bayesian egg is not broken: the omission to choose default prior distributions such that the ensuing inferences are well calibrated. The third problem is the adherence to inadequate rules for the interpretation of the size of the Bayes factor. The current paper will elaborate these problems and show how to avoid them using the basic hypotheses and statistical model used in the first experiment described in Bem (2011 Bem, D. J. (2011). Feeling the future: Experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 407–425. doi: 10.1037/a0021524[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). It will be argued that a thorough investigation of these problems in the context of more encompassing hypotheses and statistical models is called for if Bayesian psychologists want to add a well-founded Bayes factor to the tool kit of psychological researchers.     

Critical Poisson’s ratio between toughness and brittleness

We have a new understanding on a unified fracture criterion based on two kinds of strain energy density. A definite expression which is a function of Poisson’s ratio to describe a crucial parameter in the unified fracture criterion is derived. The critical value of Poisson’s ratio between brittle and ductile materials can be derived as 2/7 which is verified by experimental data. Besides, the effect of Poisson’s ratio on the fracture loci in stress spaces is studied using unified fracture criterion. It is found that the decrease in Poisson’s ratio increases the asymmetry of fracture loci between tensile stress states and compressive stress states in principal stress spaces and between Lode parameters are 1 and ?1 in deviatoric-stress spaces. In addition, stress triaxiality has a great effect on the fracture behaviour with different Poisson’s ratios.     

Tactile order memory: evidence for sequence learning phenomena found with other stimulus types

We examine serial order memory for sequences of tactile stimuli and investigate whether established characteristics of order memory, namely serial position effects, error distributions, and Hebb repetition learning, are observed with tactile memory. Visually obscured participants received six tactile stimulations: one to each of six fingers. At test, participants lifted the six fingers in the order of stimulation. For every third trial participants received the same order of stimulation (i.e. the Hebb sequence). Serial recall accuracy produced the canonical bowed serial position function found for immediate serial recall. In addition, recall for the Hebb sequence improved relative to the filler sequences, providing the first demonstration of the Hebb repetition effect with tactile stimuli. Analysis of errors revealed close similarities to that reported with verbal and visual stimuli. This experiment further generalises established features of order memory to tactile memory, supporting the utilisation of an analogous order memory mechanism across stimuli.