Realistic affective forecasting: The role of personality

Affective forecasting often drives decision-making. Although affective forecasting research has often focused on identifying sources of error at the event level, the present investigation draws upon the “realistic paradigm” in seeking to identify factors that similarly influence predicted and actual emotions, explaining their concordance across individuals. We hypothesised that the personality traits neuroticism and extraversion would account for variation in both predicted and actual emotional reactions to a wide array of stimuli and events (football games, an election, Valentine's Day, birthdays, happy/sad film clips, and an intrusive interview). As hypothesised, individuals who were more introverted and neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more unpleasant emotional reactions, and those who were more extraverted and less neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more pleasant emotional reactions. Personality explained 30% of the concordance between predicted and actual emotional reactions. Findings suggest three purported personality processes implicated in affective forecasting, highlight the importance of individual-differences research in this domain, and call for more research on realistic affective forecasts.     

Parents Produce Explicit Cues That Help Toddlers Distinguish Joking and Pretending

While separate pieces of research found parents offer toddlers cues to express that they are (1) joking and (2) pretending, and that toddlers and preschoolers understand intentions to (1) joke and (2) pretend, it is not yet clear whether parents and toddlers consider joking and pretending to be distinct concepts. This is important as distinguishing these two forms of non‐literal acts could open a gateway to understanding the complexities of the non‐literal world, as well as the complexities of intentions in general. Two studies found parents offer explicit cues to help 16‐ to 24‐month‐olds distinguish pretending and joking. Across an action play study (n = 25) and a verbal play study (n = 40) parents showed more disbelief and less belief through their actions and language when joking versus pretending. Similarly, toddlers showed less belief through their actions, and older toddlers showed less belief through their language. Toddlers' disbelief could be accounted for by their response to parents' language and actions. Thus, these studies reveal a mechanism by which toddlers learn to distinguish joking and pretending. Parents offer explicit cues to distinguish these intentions, and toddlers use these cues to guide their own behaviors, which in turn allows toddlers to distinguish these intentional contexts.     

Ranking Theory and Conditional Reasoning

Ranking theory is a formal epistemology that has been developed in over 600 pages in Spohn's recent book The Laws of Belief, which aims to provide a normative account of the dynamics of beliefs that presents an alternative to current probabilistic approaches. It has long been received in the AI community, but it has not yet found application in experimental psychology. The purpose of this paper is to derive clear, quantitative predictions by exploiting a parallel between ranking theory and a statistical model called logistic regression. This approach is illustrated by the development of a model for the conditional inference task using Spohn's (2013) ranking theoretic approach to conditionals.     

Making Sense of Dynamic Systems: How Our Understanding of Stocks and Flows Depends on a Global Perspective

Stocks and flows (SF) are building blocks of dynamic systems: Stocks change through inflows and outflows, such as our bank balance changing with withdrawals and deposits, or atmospheric CO₂ with absorptions and emissions. However, people make systematic errors when trying to infer the behavior of dynamic systems, termed SF failure, whose cognitive explanations are yet unknown. We argue that SF failure appears when people focus on specific system elements (local processing), rather than on the system structure and gestalt (global processing). Using a standard SF task (n = 148), SF failure decreased by (a) a global as opposed to local task format; (b) individual global as opposed to local processing styles; and (c) global as opposed to local perceptual priming. These results converge toward local processing as an explanation for SF failure. We discuss theoretical and practical implications on the connections between the scope of attention and understanding of dynamic systems.     

On the Integration of Need‐related Autobiographical Memories among Late Adolescents and Late Adults: The Role of Depressive Symptoms and Self‐congruence

Within self‐determination theory, integration denotes the process through which people accept past and present experiences and harmonize these experiences within their sense of self. We investigated associations between indicators of successful and poor integration of need‐related memories and memory‐related affect. We also examined the role of depressive symptoms and self‐congruence as antecedents of these indicators. Moreover, we investigated whether late adults, compared with late adolescents, were better capable of integrating need‐frustrating memories through higher levels of self‐congruence. Participants were 132 late adolescents (Mage = 17.83) and 147 late adults (Mage = 76.13), who reported on their level of depressive symptoms and self‐congruence. Next, participants generated a need‐satisfying and need‐frustrating memory and reported on the memories' integration (in terms of acceptance, connection and rumination) and associated affect. Whereas depressive symptoms related mainly to the poor integration of need‐frustrating memories, self‐congruence related positively to the integration of both need‐satisfying and need‐frustrating memories. In turn, integration was related to more positive and less negative affect. Late adults scored higher than late adolescents on the integration of need‐frustrating memories, an effect that was partly accounted for by late adults' elevated self‐congruence. Results suggest that self‐congruence, depressive symptoms and age play a role in the integration of need‐based autobiographical memories. Copyright © 2016 European Association of Personality Psychology     

Psychosocial mediators of a theory-based resistance training maintenance intervention for prediabetic adults

Objective: Examine psychosocial mediators of the effects of high vs. low-dose resistance training (RT) maintenance interventions among older (ages 50–69), overweight and pre-diabetic adults.

Design: Participants (N = 123) completed a three-month supervised RT initiation phase and were subsequently randomised (time 1) to high or low-dose six-month unsupervised RT maintenance interventions (time 2), followed by a six-month no-contact phase (time 3).

Main Outcome Measures: Online measures of putative mediators and RT behaviour.

Results: RT intervention condition (high vs. low dose) had significant effects on change from time 1 to time 2 in behavioural expectation, self-regulation and perceived satisfaction (f² = .04–.08), but not outcome expectancies, RT strategies or behavioural intentions (f² ≤ .02). Change in each of the putative mediators, except for outcome expectancies (f² ≤ .02), had significant effects on RT behaviour at times 2 (f² = .12–.27) and 3 (f² = .23–.40). In a multiple mediation model, behavioural expectation (f² = .11) and self-regulation (f² = .06) mediated the effects of RT intervention condition on time 2 RT behaviour, whereas perceived satisfaction did not (f² = .01). Self-regulation was a significant mediator of intervention effects on time 3 RT behaviour (f² = .11), but behavioural expectation and perceived satisfaction were not (f² = .04).

Conclusions: Findings suggest that behavioural expectation and self-regulation are appropriate targets for RT maintenance interventions among at-risk older adults.     

Relational‐Cultural Theory: Fostering the Growth of a Paradigm Through Empirical Research

This study identified empirical literature supporting relational‐cultural theory (RCT) for explaining experiences of individuals, assessing theoretical constructs, and providing an effective treatment option. A systematic review of available literature revealed that (a) RCT was a useful framework for understanding client experiences, (b) there is considerable support for the psychometric validation of RCT constructs, and (c) support for RCT interventions is currently limited. Limitations of studies reviewed, recommendations for future research, and implications for counselors are provided.     

Leaping to Conclusions: Why Premise Relevance Affects Argument Strength

Everyday reasoning requires more evidence than raw data alone can provide. We explore the idea that people can go beyond this data by reasoning about how the data was sampled. This idea is investigated through an examination of premise non‐monotonicity, in which adding premises to a category‐based argument weakens rather than strengthens it. Relevance theories explain this phenomenon in terms of people's sensitivity to the relationships among premise items. We show that a Bayesian model of category‐based induction taking premise sampling assumptions and category similarity into account complements such theories and yields two important predictions: First, that sensitivity to premise relationships can be violated by inducing a weak sampling assumption; and second, that premise monotonicity should be restored as a result. We test these predictions with an experiment that manipulates people's assumptions in this regard, showing that people draw qualitatively different conclusions in each case.