目标设置过程的理性特征分析

本文运用个案研究方法 ,从人类理性的角度分析了企业在不同的生产经营条件下的目标设置方式 ,发现不确定性和目标难度对管理者的目标设置过程有很大的影响。在确定的 ,且任务较容易的情况下 ,目标设置是以一种与理性期望模型相一致的方式进行的 ,而在高度不确定的条件下 ,管理者则倾向于采用渐进适应的模式设置目标。对管理者的经营活动作进一步深入的分析发现 ,在高难度的任务目标情景中 ,决策者更多地从战略的层次 ,而不是从具体的层次上寻求实现目标的途径 ,从而提出了目标难度与实绩的“策略搜索层次”假设     

A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts

In this paper I formulate an approach for evaluating probabilistic forecasts in terms of signal detection theory. Signal detection theory provides a powerful perspective for this type of problem, and a rich empirical background including methodological tools as well as an extensive body of research in many domains. I propose procedures which emphasize the maximization of expected utility for the decision maker who uses the forecasts. Further, I suggest approaches to obtaining indices of calibration and resolution within this framework. I also present arguments that the proposed indices will exhibit the same basic properties as do decompositions of Brier's (1950, Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1–3) mean probability score. However, the properties may be reflected in different ways, and hence, the present methods may lead to different conclusions about forecasting ability. Finally, I argue that the use of an expected utility loss function makes this approach more appropriate for practical applications as well as for theoretical research than other procedures with more arbitrary loss functions.     

高中生感知教师支持与学习投入的关系:学业自我效能感和成就目标定向的链式中介作用

采用感知教师支持、学习投入、学业自我效能感和成就目标定向问卷对498名高中生进行问卷调查,探讨感知教师支持对学习投入的影响,以及学业自我效能感和成就目标定向的链式中介效应。结果显示：（1）感知教师支持能通过学业自我效能感间接预测高中生学习投入,感知教师支持可以通过掌握趋近、表现趋近、表现回避间接预测高中生学习投入;（2）学业自我效能感→掌握趋近、学业自我效能感→表现趋近、学业自我效能感→表现回避三者分别在感知教师支持与学习投入之间起链式中介作用,学业自我效能感→掌握回避的中介效应则不显著。上述结果表明,感知教师支持不仅能分别通过学业自我效能感、掌握趋近、表现趋近、表现回避预测高中生学习投入,还能通过学业自我效能感和成就目标定向的链式中介作用间接预测高中生学习投入。     

Comparative judgments with numerical reference points

A model of subjective magnitude comparisons is explored, which assumes that subjects compare symbolic stimulus magnitudes with respect to a reference point. The reference point may be established implicitly by the question (e.g., “Which is larger?” vs “Which is smaller?”) or be presented explicitly (e.g., “Choose the stimulus closer to X.”). The model was tested in five experiments in which subjects judged which of two comparison digits was closer to (or further from) a reference digit. Regression analyses in three experiments revealed that reaction time depended on the ratio of the distances from the comparison items to the reference point. The other two experiments provided evidence that subjects can strategically vary the processes by which they compare stimuli to a reference point. The results indicated that subjects can perform various types of “analog arithmetic” using either the linear number scale or a nonlinear scale of subjective digit magnitude.     

Local contrast and maintained generalization.

Pigeons received variable-interval reinforcement for key pecking during presentations of horizontal and vertical line-orientation stimuli, while pecks during five intermediate orientations were extinguished. Lowest peck rates were observed during presentations of negative stimuli adjacent to the positive orientations while peck rate during 45 degrees (the intermediate negative orientation) was relatively high, i.e., there were negative contrast shoulders. When peck rates were manipulated in the positive orientations, peck rate in neithboring orientations changed in the opposite direction. Contrast shoulders faded after prolonged training. A second type of contrast, local contrast, was correlated with similarity of preceding stimulus and different average peck rates during different stages of the discrimination process. The data suggest that sequential local contrast accompanying the formation of a discrimination contributes to the form of generalization gradients. Blough's model of stimulus control predicts the changes in gradient form described here, but may not accurately depict the underlying process responsible for gradient form.     

A biased random walk model for two choice reaction times

This paper generalizes Stone's (1960, Psychometrika 25, 251–260) random walk model of two choice response times (RTs) that is based on the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) and that predicts equal correct and incorrect RTs to the same response. The generalized version allows a bias of the type found in signal detection theory to enter directly into the accumulation process so that ambivalent evidence may be seen as slightly favoring one alternative. The resulting biased SPRT model can predict any relation between correct and incorrect mean RTs. In particular, unlike the special symmetric case of Link and Heath's (1975, Psychometrika 40, 77–105) relative judgment theory (RJT), the biased SPRT model can predict that correct mean RTs are faster for one response but slower for the other. The biased SPRT model, the classical SPRT model, and the symmetric RJT model are all fit to the data of an RT deadline experiment reported by Green and Luce (1973, Attention and performance, New York: Academic Press) and it is shown that, of the three, the biased SPRT model provides the best account. Finally, a method for incorporating the same sort of bias into RJT models is sketched out.     

Teaching minority high school students to recruit helpers to attain personal and educational goals

Recruiting help from mentors and other potential helpers is a promising strategy for helping disadvantaged and minority youths meet their personal and educational goals. Three African-American high school seniors participated in a project designed to evaluate the effectiveness of training procedures that would allow them to ask for help in attaining educational and other personal goals. A behavioral training procedure that included instructional materials, role-play practice, praise, and feedback was used. Targeted skills included goal setting and 30 responses involved in the process of meeting with a potential helper. Role-play situations were used to evaluate participants' help-recruiting skills before and after training. Participants increased their help-recruiting skills from an average of 38% during baseline, to an average of 75% after training. Self-reported measures of goal attainment suggested that the students benefited from the training. Implications for mentoring programs designed to increase minority students' opportunities to reach educational goals were discussed.     

The form of analog size information in memory

The information used to choose the larger of two objects from memory was investigated in two experiments that compared the effects of a number of variables on the performance of subjects who either were instructed to use imagery in the comparison task or were not so instructed. Subjects instructed to use imagery could perform the task more quickly if they prepared themselves with an image of one of the objects at its normal size, rather than with an image that was abnormally big or small, or no image at all. Such subjects were also subject to substantial selective interference when asked to simultaneously maintain irrelevant images of digits. In contrast, when subjects were not specifically instructed to use imagery to reach their decisions, an initial image at normal size did not produce significantly faster decisions than no image, or a large or small image congruent with the correct decision. The selective interference created by simultaneously imaging digits was reduced for subjects not told to base their size comparisons on imagery. The difficulty of the size discrimination did not interact significantly with any other variable. The results suggest that subjects, unless specifically instructed to use imagery, can compare the size of objects in memory using information more abstract than visual imagery.     

Interactive effects of social network centrality and social identification on stress

The present study aimed to integrate the social identity approach to health and well-being with social network analysis. Previous research on the effects of social network centrality on stress has yielded mixed results. Building on the social identity approach, we argued that these mixed results can be explained, in part, by taking into account the degree to which individuals identify with the social network. We hence hypothesized that the effects of social network centrality on stress are moderated by social identification. Using a full roster method, we assessed the social network of first-year psychology students right after the start of their study programme and three months later. The effects of network centrality (betweenness, closeness, eigenvector centrality) and social identification on stress were examined using structural equation models. As predicted, our results revealed a significant interaction between network centrality and social identification on stress: For weakly or moderately identified students, network centrality was positively related to stress. By contrast, for strongly identified students, network centrality was unrelated to stress. In conclusion, our results point to the perils of being well-connected yet not feeling like one belongs to a group.     

Personal Contact with Refugees is Key to Welcoming Them: An Analysis of Politicians' and Citizens' Attitudes Towards Refugee Integration

Politicians are influential both in directing policies about refugees and in framing public discourse about them. However, unlike other host country residents, politicians' attitudes towards refugees and integration are remarkably understudied. We therefore examine similarities and differences between politicians' attitudes towards refugee integration and those held by citizens. Based on the stereotype content model, we expect that political ideology informs stereotypes about refugees, which subsequently shape attitudes towards refugee integration. Based on the Contact Hypothesis, we further argue that personal contact with refugees reduces negative stereotypes about them—in particular for those endorsing a right-wing ideology. We draw on data collected via two surveys with 905 politicians and 8013 citizens in the Netherlands to show that (1) unlike those with a left-wing orientation, residents (i.e., both politicians and citizens) with a right-wing orientation hold more negative stereotypes about refugees, which in turn relate to more negative attitudes towards refugee integration; (2) personal contact with refugees is associated with less negative stereotypes among residents; and (3) politicians, compared to citizens, report less negative stereotypes and more positive attitudes towards refugee integration. The practical implication of fostering residents' contact with refugees as well as the implications for future research are discussed.