Focus induced tunnel vision in managerial judgment and decision making: The peril and the antidote

Managers often must assess singular strategic options. Four studies of such assessments demonstrate a tunnel vision effect: Focal managerial options often are favored in an evidentially unjustifiable manner. Study 1 concerns new product development, and demonstrates that a prototype that has become focal tends to be judged overly favorably, and is chosen for launch with unwarranted enthusiasm. Study 2 shows that this tunnel vision effect generalizes to judgments and decisions about general strategy. Study 3 focuses on the information search patterns underlying the effect, and Study 4 replicates the tunnel vision effect among experienced executives, and demonstrates the utility of a debiasing procedure. Data in all of the studies implicate selective processing as the driver of the tunnel vision effect, and further understanding of how selective processing affects choice. Several alternative operationalizations of the empirically tested debiasing procedure are discussed.     

Coherence shifts in probabilistic inference tasks

The fast‐and‐frugal heuristics approach to probabilistic inference assumes that individuals often employ simple heuristics to integrate cue information that commonly function in a non‐reciprocal fashion. Specifically, the subjective validity of a certain cue remains stable during the application of a heuristic and is not changed by the presence or absence of another cue. The parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) model, in contrast, predicts that information is processed in a reciprocal fashion. Specifically, it assumes that subjective cue validities interactively affect each other and are modified to coherently support the favored choice. Corresponding to the model's simulation, we predicted the direction and the size of such coherence shifts. Cue validities were measured before, after (Experiment 1), and during judgment (Experiments 2 and 3). Coherence shifts were found in environments involving real‐world cue knowledge (weather forecasts) and in a domain for which the application of fast‐and‐frugal heuristics has been demonstrated (city‐size tasks). The results indicate that subjective cue validities are not fixed parameters, but that they are interactively changed to form coherent representations of the task. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

癌症患者临床决策倾向性的研究

为了解癌症患者对医生、自己和家属意见的临床决策倾向性,采取问卷调查和半结构访谈相结合的方法,调查120例住院癌症患者的临床决策倾向性。结果显示,(1)生活习惯相关决策,实际和理想的患者自己倾向性构成比值最高,为40%和33%;求医行为方面家属最高,实际和理想均为50%;常规检查、总体治疗方案、手术、化疗和放疗相关决策方面均为医生最高,分别为100%、90%、100%、90%和100%;(2)癌症患者理想和实际的临床决策倾向性构成比值均无差异(P0.05),但访谈显示29.17%的患者认为目前决策状态不理想。提示:(1)癌症患者在不同方面的临床决策倾向性有所不同。(2)癌症患者对临床决策状态基本满意,但有患者希望医生参与沟通更多或自己参与更多。     

Profits and halos: The role of firm profitability information in consumer inference

Three experiments investigated the consequences of the presence of information that a manufacturing firm is profitable on consumers' judgments of the firm and the consequences for perceptions of advertising, products, and choice intention. When profitability is present in the advertising context, consumers form more favorable advertiser judgments, which drive perceptions of greater advertisement credibility, which lead to more favorable product inferences, and ultimately stronger purchase intentions. The third experiment additionally shows that profitability information interacts with a warranty to drive judgments and choice. The implication of our findings is that firms should consider highlighting their profitability to enhance advertising effectiveness.     

Patient Perspectives on the Learning Health System: The Importance of Trust and Shared Decision Making

We conducted focus groups to assess patient attitudes toward research on medical practices in the context of usual care. We found that patients focus on the implications of this research for their relationship with and trust in their physicians. Patients view research on medical practices as separate from usual care, demanding dissemination of information and in most cases, individual consent. Patients expect information about this research to come through their physician, whom they rely on to identify and filter associated risks. In general, patients support this research, but worry that participation in research involving randomization may undermine individualized care that acknowledges their unique medical histories. These findings suggest the need for public education on variation in practice among physicians and the need for a collaborative approach to the governance of research on medical practices that addresses core values of trust, transparency, and partnership.     

大学生职业决策自我效能测评的研究

本研究参照Betz和Taylor"职业生涯决策自我效能量表",依据对学生进行的访谈资料和学生开放式问卷调查结果,编制出"大学生职业决策自我效能量表".本研究抽取武汉地区14所大学30个专业1000名毕业年级的大学生作为研究样本,进行正式施测.统计分析结果表明(1)该量表的项目特性良好;(2)该量表都具有较好的内部一致性信度;(3)该量表均具有较强的辨别效度;(4)该量表作为整体判断使用较好.     

Variations of career decision ambiguity tolerance between China and the United States and between high school and college

The variation of career decision ambiguity tolerance (CDAT) by cultures and development stages was examined in a sample of Chinese high school students (n = 339), a sample of Chinese college students (n = 356), along with U.S. college students (n = 328). It was hypothesized that career decision ambiguity tolerance decreases when individuals experience more societal/cultural pressure on decidedness and responsibility for their career decision making. Based on the three-factor structure of CDAT (i.e., preference, tolerance, and aversion), measurement invariance was examined between Chinese and U.S. college students and between Chinese high school and college students. While the factor of tolerance was not upheld in both Chinese samples, the factors of preference and aversion were found to be structurally invariant across cultures and developmental stages. The analyses comparing means of preference and aversion found that U.S. college students had a higher level of preference relative to Chinese college students. It was also found that in comparison to Chinese high school students, Chinese college students had a higher level of aversion. The criterion validity of CDAT in Chinese culture was supported in the findings of preference and aversion being associated with career exploration and career indecision. The implication of this study was discussed along with its limitations and suggestions for future research.     

在日常工作中强化急诊医学临床决策方法训练初探

急诊医学是临床决策应用最频繁的学科之一。为了提高我院急诊科医师的临床决策水平,全科医师在3人“研究小组”带领下,于2009年10月至2010年12月,通过研习有关文献掌握常用的临床决策方法;在分诊、接诊、抢救、晨会、主任查房、病例讨论会等日常工作环节,强化临床决策方法的训练和运用。比较4种主要决策方法在“训练前组”和“训练后组”抢救病例的应用比例,发现快捷的“模式识别法”和“运用规则法”的使用比例明显提高,严谨而费时的“假设一演绎法”的使用比例明显降低,“事件驱动法”和“失误率”无明显变化。提示：在日常工作中强化急诊医学临床决策方法的训练有助于提高急诊医师的临床决策水平。     

风险决策中的双参照点效应

以预期理论为代表的决策理论认为, 决策者自身的损益状态对风险决策有重要作用, 因此, 将决策者的现状定义为个人参照点。它决定了决策情境是个人获益还是个人损失。个人参照点直接关乎决策者实际的得失, 具有直接性、真实性和绝对性的特征。然而, 社会比较理论认为, 与他人的比较结果同样对风险决策具有不可忽视的意义。因此, 将他人的状态定义为社会参照点。自身的现状与他人状态相比较的结果决定了决策情境是社会获益还是社会损失。社会参照点无关决策者的实际得失, 具有间接性、假设性和相对性的特征。社会参照点通过自我概念、情绪、认知等路径作用于风险决策。更为重要的是, 社会参照点和个人参照点同时存在于风险决策过程中, 决策者对两者的心理感受和行为倾向具有相似性, 因此两者将共同影响决策者的风险选择。基于此, 本文提出风险决策中的双参照点效应。有关双参照点对风险决策过程的影响机制还需进一步的探讨。     

“时间贫穷”对跨期决策和前瞻行为的影响及其认知机制

紧张的社会节奏使人们感觉时间正在变少,从而产生时间匮乏的心理感知和思维模式,这一现象概括为"时间贫穷"。"时间贫穷"会对个体认知判断、情绪和行为控制力产生重要影响。通过行为科学和认知神经科学相结合的研究方法,从行为反应-心理机制-神经机制三个层面研究时间贫穷对跨期决策和前瞻行为的影响。研究分为3个部分:(1)时间贫穷对个体认知判断、情绪和行为控制力的影响;(2)时间贫穷对跨期决策的影响;(3)组织中时间贫穷对前瞻行为的影响。通过系列研究,拟解决3个关键问题:(1)时间贫穷如何影响人们的认知判断,导致非理性决策行为?(2)时间贫穷影响认知判断和跨期决策的神经机制究竟是什么?(3)时间贫穷对管理决策带来哪些挑战?对这些问题的深入探讨,不仅对行为决策理论的发展有重要贡献;而且对组织如何进行有效的管理制度设计,避免个体和组织陷入"时间贫穷陷阱",同样有很强的实践意义。