Learning from examples does not prevent order effects in belief revision

A common finding is that information order influences belief revision (e.g., Hogarth & Einhorn, 1992 Hogarth, R. M. and Einhorn, H. J. 1992. Order effects in belief updating: The belief-adjustment model. Cognitive Psychology, 24: 1–55. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We tested personal experience as a possible mitigator. In three experiments participants experienced the probabilistic relationship between pieces of information and object category through a series of trials where they assigned objects (planes) into one of two possible categories (hostile or commercial), given two sequentially presented pieces of probabilistic information (route and ID), and then they had to indicate their belief about the object category before feedback. The results generally confirm the predictions from the Hogarth and Einhorn model. Participants showed a recency effect in their belief revision. Extending previous model evaluations the results indicate that the model predictions also hold for classification decisions, and for pieces of information that vary in their diagnostic values. Personal experience does not appear to prevent order effects in classification decisions based on sequentially presented pieces of information and in belief revision.     

Children's reasoning about the temporal order of past and future events

Four- and five-year-olds completed two sets of tasks that involved reasoning about the temporal order in which events had occurred in the past or were to occur in the future. Four-year-olds succeeded on the tasks that involved reasoning about the order of past events but not those that involved reasoning about the order of future events, whereas 5-year-olds passed both types of tasks. Individual children who failed the past-event tasks were not particularly likely to fail the more difficult future-event tasks. However, children's performance on the reasoning tasks was predictive of their performance on a task assessing their comprehension of the terms “before” and “after.” Our results suggest that there may be a developmental change over this age range in the ability to flexibly represent and reason about the before-and-after relationships between events.     

HO-DINA模型的MCMC参数估计及模型性能研究

认知诊断目前在国内外越来越受到重视,而要真正实现认知诊断,需借助一定的计量学模型即认知诊断模型。国际上,目前已开发近60种认知诊断模型,不同模型又各具特点。本研究重点分析国外研究较成熟的模型--HO-DINA/DINA模型,具体探讨该模型参数估计的实现及模型性能,采用Monte Carlo模拟方法进行,研究发现：(1)本研究对项目参数、属性参数和被试参数估计返真性较好、稳健性较强、HO-DINA模型具有较高的判断率,MCMC算法可行;（2）诊断的属性个数越多,诊断的模式正确率越低,建议实际使用该模型时,诊断的属性个数不宜超过7个;（3）用于诊断的项目数越多,诊断的模式正确率越高,在实际工作中,若要保证有80%以上的模式判准率,则4个属性的至少需20题,5个、6个和7个属性的至少需要40题,8个属性至少需60题。实际运用者应根据实际情况考虑适当的项目数及属性数。     

Constructing content and delimiting choice: International coverage of KAL Flight 007

For more than two decades, international debate over a New World Communication and Information Order has called attention to the question of whether or not newspapers around the world are limited by the alleged dominance of the international news flow by the Western media. Looking at how six newspapers from around the world covered the 1983 downing of KAL Flight 007 by the Soviet Union, we find that papers are in fact able to shape their coverage of major international events through their choice of providers, their selection and interpretation of subjects and facts, and their use of headlines to emphasize and frame information. Thus, newspapers can delimit choice to suit their own needs and goals.     

Contemporary ethics from an ambiguous past.

Kaveny recommends models drawn from the Gospel of John and the practices of the early church for modern Christians in their response to older women and their health needs. She draws upon a historical reconstruction of the early Christian Order of Widows to propose a normative standard of care for elderly women, one that attends seriously to their bodily needs but also to their needs for inclusion and engagement in the social and vocational world both as givers and recipients of care. This is also to serve as an overarching model for a bioethics that prizes the embodied existence of all women and rejects judgments of appropriate treatment based on their social utility. The following response raises questions about the exegetical and historical foundations of Kaveny's analysis. However, these caveats may not detract substantially from the normative usefulness of her work.     

基于HO-DINA模型的多级评分认知诊断模型的开发

本文对具有较好发展前景的HO-DINA模型进行拓展,将仅适用于0-1评分题型的HO-DINA模型拓广至可用于多级评分题型,采用MCMC算法实现了对模型参数的估计,并对新模型性能进行了研究。研究发现: （1）本文拓展的多级评分HO-DINA模型参数估计精度较高且诊断正确率较高。（2）多级评分的HO-DINA模型诊断的属性个数越多,属性参数（ 和 ）和s参数估计的精度越差、属性诊断的正确率（MMR和PRM）越低,但能力参数（ ）和g参数的估计精度反而越高。（3）在当前条件下,若想保证属性模式判准率在80%以上,建议诊断的属性个数不宜超过7个。     

Diagnostic causal reasoning with verbal information

In diagnostic causal reasoning, the goal is to infer the probability of causes from one or multiple observed effects. Typically, studies investigating such tasks provide subjects with precise quantitative information regarding the strength of the relations between causes and effects or sample data from which the relevant quantities can be learned. By contrast, we sought to examine people’s inferences when causal information is communicated through qualitative, rather vague verbal expressions (e.g., “X occasionally causes A”). We conducted three experiments using a sequential diagnostic inference task, where multiple pieces of evidence were obtained one after the other. Quantitative predictions of different probabilistic models were derived using the numerical equivalents of the verbal terms, taken from an unrelated study with different subjects. We present a novel Bayesian model that allows for incorporating the temporal weighting of information in sequential diagnostic reasoning, which can be used to model both primacy and recency effects. On the basis of 19,848 judgments from 292 subjects, we found a remarkably close correspondence between the diagnostic inferences made by subjects who received only verbal information and those of a matched control group to whom information was presented numerically. Whether information was conveyed through verbal terms or numerical estimates, diagnostic judgments closely resembled the posterior probabilities entailed by the causes’ prior probabilities and the effects’ likelihoods. We observed interindividual differences regarding the temporal weighting of evidence in sequential diagnostic reasoning. Our work provides pathways for investigating judgment and decision making with verbal information within a computational modeling framework.     

楚竹书《孔子诗论》“类序”辨析

通过对楚竹书《孔子诗论》的分析,结合对《诗经》文本形成过程的探讨,得出《诗经》之部类及其类序为《风》、《小雅》、《大雅》、《颂》的结论,同时厘清孔子、《孔子诗论》和《毛诗》在文本方面的关系。《诗经》的结集经历了一个过程,其分类由来已久;未曾更改。《诗》“类序”的形成也具有一定的历史性,是在《诗》文本编辑过程中自然形成的。孔子在整理《诗经》的过程中并不存在一个前提性的“编序”原则,所谓孔子“删诗”,只是对诗篇做些必要的一般性古籍整理而已。至于出土文献《孔子诗论》中偶尔出现的颠倒《诗》“类序”的论述亦属正常,并不能说明孔子曾编有与传统《诗》“类序”相反的文本,也不能否定《毛诗》文本具有一定的历史延续性,更不能由此说明《孔子诗论》中出现“类序颠倒”具有更为不可测知的寓意。     

Numerical order and quantity processing in number comparison

We investigated processing of numerical order information and its relation to mechanisms of numerical quantity processing. In two experiments, performance on a quantity-comparison task (e.g. 2 5; which is larger?) was compared with performance on a relative-order judgment task (e.g. 2 5; ascending or descending order?). The comparison task consistently produced the standard distance effect (faster judgments for far relative to close number pairs), but the distance effect was smaller for ascending (e.g. 2 5) compared to descending pairs (e.g. 5 2). The order task produced a pair-order effect (faster judgments for ascending pairs) and a reverse distance effect for consecutive pairs in ascending order. The reverse effect implies an order-specific process, such as serial search or direct recognition of order for successive numbers. Thus, numerical quantity and order judgments recruited different cognitive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the reduced distance effect for ascending pairs in the quantity task implies involvement of order-related processes in magnitude comparison. Accordingly, distance effects in the quantity-comparison task are not necessarily a process-pure measure of magnitude representation.