Ranking Theory and Conditional Reasoning

Ranking theory is a formal epistemology that has been developed in over 600 pages in Spohn's recent book The Laws of Belief, which aims to provide a normative account of the dynamics of beliefs that presents an alternative to current probabilistic approaches. It has long been received in the AI community, but it has not yet found application in experimental psychology. The purpose of this paper is to derive clear, quantitative predictions by exploiting a parallel between ranking theory and a statistical model called logistic regression. This approach is illustrated by the development of a model for the conditional inference task using Spohn's (2013) ranking theoretic approach to conditionals.     

A belief in trend reversal requires access to cognitive resources

There are two research traditions studying people's reactions to random binary events: one concerns serial choice reaction times, the other concerns predictions of events in a series. The present studies focused on comparing expectations between these two approaches. We formed and tested a general hypothesis that, regardless of the type of task, when an individual faces a sequence of events they initially expect trend continuation. Only when people assume that a sequence is random might they override the default and expect trend reversal instead. In a series of experiments we found that limitation of access to cognitive resources enhances expectations of trend continuation. Our interpretation of this finding is that an expectation of trend continuation is the default for the human cognitive system and that a belief in trend reversal requires access to cognitive resources to overcome the tendency to expect trend continuation.     

A new secretary problem with rank-based selection and cardinal payoffs

We present an extension of the secretary problem in which the decision maker (DM) sequentially observes up to n applicants whose values are random variables X₁,X₂,…,X_n drawn i.i.d. from a uniform distribution on [0,1]. The DM must select exactly one applicant, cannot recall released applicants, and receives a payoff of x_t, the realization of X_t, for selecting the tth applicant. For each encountered applicant, the DM only learns whether the applicant is the best so far. We prove that the optimal policy dictates skipping the first sqrt(n)-1 applicants, and then selecting the next encountered applicant whose value is a maximum.     

From wealth to well-being? Money matters,but less than people think

While numerous studies have documented the modest (though reliable) link between household income and well-being, we examined the accuracy of laypeople's intuitions about this relationship by asking people from across the income spectrum to report their own happiness and to predict the happiness of others (Study 1) and themselves (Study 2) at different income levels. Data from two national surveys revealed that while laypeople's predictions were relatively accurate at higher levels of income, they greatly overestimated the impact of income on life satisfaction at lower income levels, expecting low household income to be coupled with very low life satisfaction. Thus, people may work hard to maintain or increase their income in part because they overestimate the hedonic costs of earning low levels of income.     

The modulation of stimulus structure on visual field asymmetry effects: The case of Chinese character recognition

Recent research suggests that visual field (VF) asymmetry effects in visual recognition may be influenced by information distribution within the stimuli for the recognition task in addition to hemispheric processing differences: Stimuli with more information on the left have a right VF (RVF) advantage because the left part is closer to the centre, where the highest visual acuity is obtained. It remains unclear whether visual complexity distribution of the stimuli also has similar modulation effects. Here we used Chinese characters with contrasting structures—left-heavy, symmetric, and right-heavy, in terms of either visual complexity of components or information distribution defined by location of the phonetic component—and examined participants' naming performance. We found that left-heavy characters had the largest RVF advantage, followed by symmetric and right-heavy characters; this effect was only observed in characters that contrasted in information distribution, in which information for pronunciation was skewed to the phonetic component, but not in those that contrasted only in visual complexity distribution and had no phonetic component. This result provides strong evidence for the influence of information distribution within the stimuli on VF asymmetry effects; in contrast, visual complexity distribution within the stimuli does not have similar modulation effects.     

Expertise and gambling: Using Type 2 signal detection theory to investigate differences between regular gamblers and nongamblers

This paper presents an experimental investigation into how individuals make decisions under uncertainty when faced with different payout structures in the context of gambling. Type 2 signal detection theory was utilized to compare sensitivity to bias manipulations between regular nonproblem gamblers and nongamblers in a novel probability-based gambling task. The results indicated that both regular gamblers and nongamblers responded to the changes of rewards for correct responses (Experiment 1) and penalties for errors (Experiment 2) in setting their gambling criteria, but that regular gamblers were more sensitive to these manipulations of bias. Regular gamblers also set gambling criteria that were more optimal. The results are discussed in terms of an expertise-transference hypothesis.     

Simple Threshold Rules Solve Explore/Exploit Trade-offs in a Resource Accumulation Search Task

How, and how well, do people switch between exploration and exploitation to search for and accumulate resources? We study the decision processes underlying such exploration/exploitation trade-offs using a novel card selection task that captures the common situation of searching among multiple resources (e.g., jobs) that can be exploited without depleting. With experience, participants learn to switch appropriately between exploration and exploitation and approach optimal performance. We model participants' behavior on this task with random, threshold, and sampling strategies, and find that a linear decreasing threshold rule best fits participants' results. Further evidence that participants use decreasing threshold-based strategies comes from reaction time differences between exploration and exploitation; however, participants themselves report non-decreasing thresholds. Decreasing threshold strategies that “front-load” exploration and switch quickly to exploitation are particularly effective in resource accumulation tasks, in contrast to optimal stopping problems like the Secretary Problem requiring longer exploration.     

Flow in youth sport,physical activity,and physical education: A systematic review

Flow in sport, physical activity, and physical education can have widespread benefits for youth participants. The aim of this study was to systematically review, synthesise, and appraise literature on flow in youth sport, physical activity, and physical education. More specifically, the review explored the: methods used to study flow; conceptualisation of flow; antecedents associated with flow; interventions and mechanisms to facilitate flow states; and outcomes associated with flow. Electronic database and manual searches in September 2020 yielded 2,292 potential papers. Overall, 39 studies with 17,123 youths published over 36 years (1984–2020) satisfied the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. As the first systematic review of flow in physical activity contexts specifically in youth-aged participants, the synthesis identified several issues with the measurement and conceptualisation of flow. While evidence has accumulated on antecedents and outcomes of flow in youth sport, physical activity, and physical education, the reliance on cross-sectional designs prevents the inference of causality. Interventions designed to facilitate more frequent or intense flow experiences have been relatively unsuccessful, thus suggesting that further research is required to explain the occurrence of flow and to develop interventions that reliably induce flow states in youths. Overall, the review highlights a need for higher quality research to make meaningful progress in understanding of the flow experience in youth sport, physical activity, and physical education. Recommendations for future research that could help to advance understanding include: experimental studies; evidence-based flow interventions; and qualitative methods, such as event-focused interviews.     

Executive functioning in individuals with a history of ASDs who have achieved optimal outcomes

Executive functioning (EF) is examined among children and adolescents once diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but who no longer meet diagnostic criteria. These individuals have average social and language skills, receive minimal school support and are considered to have achieved “optimal outcomes” (OOs). Since residual impairments in these individuals might be expected in deficits central to autism, and in developmentally advanced skills, EF was examined in 34 individuals who achieved OOs, 43 individuals with high-functioning autism (HFA), and 34 typically developing (TD) peers. Groups were matched on age (M = 13.49), gender, and nonverbal IQ (NVIQ) but differed on verbal IQ (VIQ; HFA < TD, OO). On direct assessment, all three groups demonstrated average EF; however, the OO and HFA groups exhibited more impulsivity and less efficient planning and problem-solving than the TD group, and more HFA participants exhibited below average inhibition than did OO and TD participants. Parent-report measures revealed average EF among the OO and TD groups; however, the OO group exhibited more difficulty than the TD group on set-shifting and working memory. HFA participants demonstrated more difficulty on all parent-reported EF domains, with a clinical impairment in attention-shifting. Results suggest that EF in OO appears to be within the average range, even for functions that were impaired among individuals with HFA. Despite their average performance, however, the OO and TD groups differed on measures of impulsivity, set-shifting, problem-solving, working memory, and planning, suggesting that the OO group does not have the above-average EF scores of the TD group despite their high-average IQs.     

Age-related differences in metacognition for memory capacity and selectivity

ABSTRACT

Background: We compared two types of metacognitive monitoring in younger and older adults: metacognitive accuracy for their overall memory performance and their ability to selectively remember high-value information. Method: Participants studied words paired with point values and were asked to maximise their point score. In Experiment 1, they predicted how many words they would remember while in Experiment 2, they predicted how many points they would earn. Results: In Experiment 1, while younger adults were accurate in their predictions, older adults were overconfident in the number of words they would recall throughout the task. In Experiment 2, however, both younger and older adults were equally accurate when predicting the amount of points they would earn after some task experience. Conclusions: While younger adults may have higher metacognitive accuracy for their capacity, older adults can accurately assess their ability to selectively remember information, suggesting potentially separate metacognitive mechanisms that are differentially affected by aging.