Do Maximizers Predict Better than Satisficers?

We examine the relationship between maximizing (i.e., seeking the best) versus satisficing (i.e., seeking the good enough) tendencies and forecasting ability in a real‐world prediction task: forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. In Studies 1 and 2, participants gave probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of the tournament and completed a measure of maximizing tendencies. We found that although maximizers expected themselves to outperform others much more than satisficers, they actually forecasted more poorly. Hence, on net, they were more overconfident about their relative performance. Decompositional analyses of overall accuracy revealed that differences in forecasting abilities were primarily driven by maximizers' tendency to give more noisy estimates. In Study 3, participants played a betting task where they could choose between safe and uncertain gambles linked to World Cup outcomes. Again, maximizers did more poorly and earned less, because of greater noise in their choice‐based responses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal versus heuristic planning of object manipulations: A review and a computational model of the continuous end-state comfort effect

Human beings select actions that facilitate the execution of later actions. For example, humans tend to select grasps that ensure that forthcoming object manipulations end in a comfortable posture (“end-state comfort effect”). Basic experimental results and their explanation within the optimal control framework are reviewed. I conclude that the discrete grasp selection tasks, which are commonly used to study anticipatory planning, leave room for alternative explanations. Moreover, the results of seven experiments employing a continuous grasp selection task seem incompatible with the optimal control (of end-state comfort) account. I introduce the weighted integration of multiple biases (WIMB) model, which accounts for many aspects of the selection of human grasp orientations in continuous tasks. Additionally, it accounts for the precision effect and hysteresis effect. The model shows that the brain may rely on a simple heuristic and does not actually has to anticipate the end-state of a movement to select effective grasps for object manipulations.     

A belief in trend reversal requires access to cognitive resources

There are two research traditions studying people's reactions to random binary events: one concerns serial choice reaction times, the other concerns predictions of events in a series. The present studies focused on comparing expectations between these two approaches. We formed and tested a general hypothesis that, regardless of the type of task, when an individual faces a sequence of events they initially expect trend continuation. Only when people assume that a sequence is random might they override the default and expect trend reversal instead. In a series of experiments we found that limitation of access to cognitive resources enhances expectations of trend continuation. Our interpretation of this finding is that an expectation of trend continuation is the default for the human cognitive system and that a belief in trend reversal requires access to cognitive resources to overcome the tendency to expect trend continuation.     

Le fonctionnement optimal psychologique : apports conceptuels et méthodologiques

In this study, we are operationalizing a new construct: the optimal psychological functioning (OPF). The dimensions of the construct are considered from a historical and a conceptual background then a heuristic approach is mobilized based on three precise rules and the tripartite conception of the mind, i.e. cognitive, affective and conative. The sample is made of 1066 French workers of age 18 to 60 originating from a diverse sociocultural and geographic background. The methodology relies on latent variable modeling. The results give rise to a bifactor structural equations modeling (Bi-ESEM) model with six domain-specific factors demonstrating a very good fit and high psychometric properties. Construct validity was tested against Keyes's positive mental health via the Mental Health Continuum Short Form (MHC-SF) (Keyes, 2002, 2005) and a construct on psychosocial risks (PSR). The OPF strongly, very significantly, and positively predicts positive mental health, while it negatively predicts absenteeism, presenteeism and turnover intentions.     

From wealth to well-being? Money matters,but less than people think

While numerous studies have documented the modest (though reliable) link between household income and well-being, we examined the accuracy of laypeople's intuitions about this relationship by asking people from across the income spectrum to report their own happiness and to predict the happiness of others (Study 1) and themselves (Study 2) at different income levels. Data from two national surveys revealed that while laypeople's predictions were relatively accurate at higher levels of income, they greatly overestimated the impact of income on life satisfaction at lower income levels, expecting low household income to be coupled with very low life satisfaction. Thus, people may work hard to maintain or increase their income in part because they overestimate the hedonic costs of earning low levels of income.     

The modulation of stimulus structure on visual field asymmetry effects: The case of Chinese character recognition

Recent research suggests that visual field (VF) asymmetry effects in visual recognition may be influenced by information distribution within the stimuli for the recognition task in addition to hemispheric processing differences: Stimuli with more information on the left have a right VF (RVF) advantage because the left part is closer to the centre, where the highest visual acuity is obtained. It remains unclear whether visual complexity distribution of the stimuli also has similar modulation effects. Here we used Chinese characters with contrasting structures—left-heavy, symmetric, and right-heavy, in terms of either visual complexity of components or information distribution defined by location of the phonetic component—and examined participants' naming performance. We found that left-heavy characters had the largest RVF advantage, followed by symmetric and right-heavy characters; this effect was only observed in characters that contrasted in information distribution, in which information for pronunciation was skewed to the phonetic component, but not in those that contrasted only in visual complexity distribution and had no phonetic component. This result provides strong evidence for the influence of information distribution within the stimuli on VF asymmetry effects; in contrast, visual complexity distribution within the stimuli does not have similar modulation effects.     

Measurement of functional task difficulty during motor learning: What level of difficulty corresponds to the optimal challenge point?

The relationship between task difficulty and learning benefit was examined, as was the measurability of task difficulty. Participants were required to learn a postural control task on an unstable surface at one of four different task difficulty levels. Results from the retention test showed an inverted-U relationship between task difficulty during acquisition and motor learning. The second-highest level of task difficulty was the most effective for motor learning, while learning was delayed at the most and least difficult levels. Additionally, the results indicate that salivary α-amylase and the performance dimension of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Task Load Index (NASA-TLX) are useful indices of task difficulty. Our findings suggested that instructors may be able to adjust task difficulty based on salivary α-amylase and the performance dimension of the NASA-TLX to enhance learning.