Methodische Grundlagen der Kriminalprognose

Zusammenfassung   Gesetzestexte sehen bei bestimmten strafrechtlichen Entscheidungen die Unterstützung des Richters durch Prognosegutachter vor. Ihre Aufgabe ist es, die Rechtsentscheidung in ihren prognostischen Aspekten auf eine rationale, wissenschaftlich fundierte Grundlage zu stellen. Methodisch lassen sich dabei wissenschaftlich fundierte Prognosen auf unterschiedlichen Wegen erstellen. Der eine Weg beruht auf empirisch gesicherten Erfahrungen über die Rückf?lligkeit von T?tern und über die die Rückfallwahrscheinlichkeit beeinflussenden Tat- und T?termerkmale. Prognosemethoden nach diesem Modell bemühen sich, diese Erfahrungen auch für individualprognostische Zwecke nutzbar zu machen. Der andere Weg führt über eine systematische retrospektive Analyse der individuellen Ursachen der bisherigen Delinquenz des T?ters und schreibt diese individuellen Bezüge prognostisch fort. Prognosemethoden nach diesem Modell bemühen sich vor allem, den erforderlichen Urteilsbildungsprozess zu systematisieren und eine hinreichende Beurteilungsgrundlage zu gew?hrleisten. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt beide Ans?tze in ihren methodischen Grundzügen und wissenschaftlichen Bew?hrungen vor und diskutiert ihre jeweiligen Vorzüge und Begrenzungen im Kontext der Mindestanforderungen für Prognosegutachten im Strafrecht.      

Some properties of two measures of multivariate association

Two kinds of measures of multivariate association, based on Wilks' and the Bartlett-Nanda-Pillai trace criterionV, respectively, are compared in terms of properties of the univariateR ² which they generalize. A unified set of derivations of the properties is provided which are self-contained and not restricted to decompositions in canonical variates. One conclusion is that asymmetric index based on allows generalization of the multiplicative decomposition ofR ² in terms of squared partial correlations, but not the additive decomposition in terms of squared semipartial correlations, while the reverse is true for anasymmetric index based onV.We are indebted to Jos M. F. ten Berge for some fruitful discussions.     

The short-term storage as a buffer memory between long-term storage and the motor system: A simultaneous-processing model

It is assumed that in a free-recall task the short-term store serves as a memory buffer between the long-term store and a final motor stage of word production. Because of this the retrieval process in long-term store is not hindered by the final motor stage of word production since continued output from the long-term store queues in the buffer for motoric processing. Otherwise a time consuming communication between the two processes would be necessary. A stochastic model of this conceptualization is provided to predict the temporal course of free recall as well as a paradigm in which the contribution of the short-term store in free recall can be studied. The experimental results from this paradigm were used to test the model and to estimate short-term storage capacity on the basis of the time course of free recall. The model predictions were in good agreement with the data and the capacity estimate coincides well with estimates found by totally different methods reported in the literature.     

The effect of question type on resistance to misinformation about present and absent details

The typical misinformation effect shows that accuracy is lower for details about which people received misleading compared to non-misleading (control) information. In two experiments, we examined the misinformation effect for non-witnessed details (i.e., absent). Three question types introduced control, misleading, and absent details (closed, closed-detailed, and open questions) about a mock burglary video. On this misinformation test, participants' reports of absent details were less accurate than control details only when they were introduced using open questions. Misinformation effects in a subsequent recognition test were present for misleading details in both experiments, but for absent details only in Experiment 2. Experiment 2 also revealed that participants who avoided answering open questions containing misleading and absent details had more accurate memories for these details on the subsequent recognition test than participants who answered these questions. In both experiments, confidence was lowest for absent details. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

MEDIATING ROLE OF MATERNAL SENSITIVITY: ENHANCING LANGUAGE DEVELOPMENT IN AT‐RISK FAMILIES

Home‐visiting programs have gained increasing importance in family‐centered prevention and intervention. However, few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying early intervention treatment effects. The goal of this study is to analyze the mediating role of maternal sensitivity in enhancing language development with the home‐visiting program Parents as Teachers (PAT). Data were collected and analyzed within the ongoing, long‐term ZEPPELIN study, a randomized controlled trial with 251 participating at‐risk families. Via longitudinal mediation analysis, we examined whether effects of the PAT on receptive and expressive language outcomes at 24 and 36 months were mediated by maternal sensitivity at 12 months. Within a moderated mediation framework, we investigated whether the level of family psychosocial stress affects this mediation. Results showed that intervention effects on language outcomes are mediated by maternal sensitivity—weakly and through specific pathways. Moderation and moderated mediation analyses indicated that effects of the PAT and also specific mediation effects increase with the level of psychosocial stress. Implications of the results for practice are discussed.     

Mel Gibson’s Big Gamble: <Emphasis Type="Italic">The Passion of Christ</Emphasis>

Mel Gibsons film is a creative reworking of opportunities provided by migrating to Australia as a boy and a life-long desire to be reconciled to his father, Hutton Gibson. If the film is read as a study in psychology and biography, then biblical and theological critiques, along with contemporary politically correct stances towards what Gibson did, can be set temporarily aside in search of a larger trajectory of meaning implicit in the film. The embodied nature of the film, along with other violent films in which Gibson starred in the past three decades, points to wellsprings of power in the blood. Violence becomes an idiom of reconciliation with authority. Gibsons relationship to his father plays a major role in such a reading of the film. A continuous reconciliation with his father is evident not only in thematic continuities over the course of Mel Gibsons professional acting career and starring roles. It also structures the directors construction of Christs Passion. A desire not to be forsaken gives rise to this idiosyncratic and controversial film, itself a cinematic statement about Gibsons own personal spiritual torment.Richard A. Hutch is Director of Studies of the Faculty of Arts and Reader in Religion and Psychological Studies in the School of History, Philosophy, Religion, and Classics at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia 4072.     

Choice and Logic

There is a little known paradox the solution to which is a guide to a much more thoroughgoing solution to a whole range of classic paradoxes. This is shown in this paper with respect to Berrys Paradox, Heterologicality, Russells Paradox, and the Paradox of Predication, also the Liar and the Strengthened Liar, using primarily the epsilon calculus. The solutions, however, show not only that the first-order predicate calculus derived from Frege is inadequate as a basis for a clear science, and should be replaced with Hilbert and Bernays conservative extension. Standard second-order logic, and quantified propositional logic also must be substantially modified, to incorporate, in the first place, nominalizations of predicates, and whole sentences. And further modifications must be made, so as to insist that predicates are parts of sentences rather than forms of them, and that truth is a property of propositions rather than their sentential expressions. In all, a thorough reworking of what has been called logic in recent years must be undertaken, to make it more fit for use.Portions of this paper have previously been published in Logical Studies, vol. 9, http://www.logic.ru/LogStud/09/No9-06.html, and the Australasian Journal of Logic, vol. 2, http://www.philosophy.unimelb.edu.au/ajl/2004/2004_4.pdf.     

Zwischen der „Physik des Organischen” und der „Organisierung der Physik”: Überlegungen zu Gegenstand und Methode der Biologie

Between Physics of Organism and Organismic Physics: Object and Method of Biology. In the history of biological theory one can observe an oscillation between two tendencies of thinking, namely the biologistic and the physicalistic point of view. Both aim at a general or unified theory of nature that is relevant for scientific research as well as for philosophical reflection. In terms of a pluralistic approach these two ways of theory-formation must be rejected. Biology e.g. as a specific natural science, characterized by its mid-position between ‘nomothetic’ and ‘idiographic’ thinking (Windelband), is much more than a subordinate branch of physical knowledge. This very autonomy of biology does not only result from a special methodology or from a specific theoretical framework. On the contrary, the methodological and functional autonomy of biology is due to the very features of the phenomena investigated. These features include multitude, individuality and wholeness. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Performance of an unpleasant task: Effects of over- vs under-payment on perception of adequacy of rewards and task attractiveness

Subjects who came to an experiment expecting to receive a moderate amount of money for performing a task were then told, either before or after performing it, that their pay would be higher than, equal to, or less than they had expected. When the actual payment was announced after the task was performed, subjects' evaluations of the task increased with the amount they were paid; however, they estimated a higher rate of pay to be appropriate if they received either more or less than they expected than if they received what they expected. When the actual payment was announced before the task was performed (and before subjects made their decision to perform it), a different pattern emerged. Subjects rated the task more attractive when they were offered either more or less than the expected amount, while their judgments of the appropriateness of the pay offered increased with the amount of the offer. Implications of the results for incentive and dissonance theories as well as self-perception and equity theories are discussed.