The Failure to Use Gender Information in Parsing: A Comment on van Berkum, Brown, and Hagoort (1999)

We critically review the empirical evidence published by van Berkum, Brown, and Hagoort (1999a, b) against syntax-first models of sentence parsing. According to van Berkum et al., discourse factors and word gender information are used instantaneously to guide the parser. First, we note that the density of the experimental trials (relative to fillers) and the slow presentation rate of the van Berkum et al. design seem likely to have elicited the use of tactics involving rapid reanalysis of the material. Second, we present new data from a questionnaire study showing that the grammatical gender information of a relative pronoun in Dutch is often completely ignored, even during the wrap-up phase at the end of the sentence.     

Decomposition,Interdependence and Precision in Multiattribute Utility Measurements

Traditionally, parameters of multiattribute utility models, representing a decision maker's preference judgements, are treated deterministically. This may be unrealistic, because assessment of such parameters is potentially fraught with imprecisions and errors. We thus treat such parameters as stochastic and investigate how their associated imprecision/errors are propagated in an additive multiattribute utility function in terms of the aggregate variance. Both a no information and a rank order case regarding the attribute weights are considered, assuming a uniform distribution over the feasible region of attribute weights constrained by the respective information assumption. In general, as the number of attributes increases, the variance of the aggregate utility in both cases decreases and approaches the same limit, which depends only on the variances as well as the correlations among the single-attribute utilities. However, the marginal change in aggregate utility variance decreases rather rapidly and hence decomposition as a variance reduction mechanism is generally useful but becomes relatively ineffective if the number of attributes exceed about 10. Moreover, it was found that utilities which are positively correlated increase the aggregate utility variance, hence every effort should be made to avoid positive correlations between the single-attribute utilities. We also provide guidelines for determining under what condition and to what extent a decision maker should decompose to obtain an aggregate utility variance that is smaller than that of holistic assessments. Extensions of the current model and empirical research to support some of our behavioural assumptions are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Information matrix estimation procedures for cognitive diagnostic models

Two new methods to estimate the asymptotic covariance matrix for marginal maximum likelihood estimation of cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs), the inverse of the observed information matrix and the sandwich-type estimator, are introduced. Unlike several previous covariance matrix estimators, the new methods take into account both the item and structural parameters. The relationships between the observed information matrix, the empirical cross-product information matrix, the sandwich-type covariance matrix and the two approaches proposed by de la Torre (2009, J. Educ. Behav. Stat., 34, 115) are discussed. Simulation results show that, for a correctly specified CDM and Q-matrix or with a slightly misspecified probability model, the observed information matrix and the sandwich-type covariance matrix exhibit good performance with respect to providing consistent standard errors of item parameter estimates. However, with substantial model misspecification only the sandwich-type covariance matrix exhibits robust performance.     

Is imagery better than reality? Performance in imagined dart throwing

We investigated whether deviations from optimal performance are predicted in motor imagery. In Experiment 1, novices and experts imagined and executed dart throws. In imagination, they reported the final position of the dart. Experts performed better than novices in execution and imagination. Distance to the target and bias were smaller in imagination than in execution. In Experiment 2, we dissociated the roles of feedback from proximal and distal action elements for predictions. Three groups of novices estimated the dart’s final position in imagination, in execution without visual feedback, or in execution with delayed visual feedback. Estimates did not differ significantly between groups, indicating that (the lack of) feedback did not influence predictions. Deviations from optimal performance were lower in estimated than in actual performance. In conclusion, although predictive mechanisms may be similar in imagination and execution, the full extent of deviation from optimal performance is not predicted.     

Using Dynamic Panel Models to Study Age‐related Differences and Time‐related Changes in Personality

Along with an increasing interest in the plasticity and role of personality across the adult lifespan comes the need for a diverse set of innovative statistical approaches to study it. With this paper, we set out to illustrate some of the possibilities and challenges in modelling age‐related differences and time‐related changes in personality psychology by means of dynamic panel models. To this end, we first distinguish between the study of age‐related differences and time‐related changes and demonstrate how the treatment of age and time as either discrete or continuous variables implies important modelling choices. Second, we present a selection of four example cases that address the topic of age moderation in diverse matters and with different objectives. Based on our cross‐tabulation of age and time as discrete and continuous variables, the first two example cases represent fairly well‐established models (cases A and B), whereas the remaining cases are used to illustrate current developments in the field (cases C and D). We close the paper with some final remarks on current limitation and future research directions. © 2019 European Association of Personality Psychology     

Linking property crime using offender crime scene behaviour: A comparison of methods

This study compared the ability of seven statistical models to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The seven models utilised geographical, temporal, and modus operandi information relating to residential burglaries (n = 180), commercial robberies, (n = 118), and car thefts (n = 376). Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis and by examining the success with which the seven models could successfully prioritise linked over unlinked crimes. The regression‐based and probabilistic models achieved comparable accuracy and were generally more accurate than the tree‐based models tested in this study. The Logistic algorithm achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC) for residential burglary (AUC = 0.903) and commercial robbery (AUC = 0.830) and the SimpleLogistic algorithm achieving the highest for car theft (AUC = 0.820). The findings also indicated that discrimination accuracy is maximised (in some situations) if behavioural domains are utilised rather than individual crime scene behaviours and that the AUC should not be used as the sole measure of accuracy in behavioural crime linkage research.     

Working alliance as a predictor of change in depression during blended cognitive behaviour therapy

Blended Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (bCBT) is a new form of treatment, mixing internet-based modules and face-to-face therapist sessions. How participants rate the therapeutic alliance in bCBT has not yet been thoroughly explored, and neither is it clear whether therapist- and patient-rated alliances are predictors of change in depression during treatment. Depression and alliance ratings from 73 participants in a treatment study on bCBT (part of the E-COMPARED project) were analysed using growth curve models. Alliance, as rated by both patients and therapists, was high. The therapist-rated working alliance was predictive of subsequent changes in depression scores during treatment, whereas the patient-rated alliance was not. A therapeutic alliance can be established in bCBT. The role of the therapist-rated alliance seems to be of particular importance and should be carefully considered when collecting data in future studies on bCBT.     

Illusory inferences with quantifiers

The psychological study of reasoning with quantifiers has predominantly focused on inference patterns studied by Aristotle about two millennia ago. Modern logic has shown a wealth of inference patterns involving quantifiers that are far beyond the expressive power of Aristotelian syllogisms, and whose psychology should be explored. We bring to light a novel class of fallacious inference patterns, some of which are so attractive that they are tantamount to cognitive illusions. In tandem with recent insights from linguistics that quantifiers like “some” are treated as wh-questions, these illusory inferences are predicted by the erotetic theory of reasoning, which postulates that a process akin to question asking and answering is behind human inference making.     

The 1.5 Criterion Model of Creativity: Where Less Is More,More or Less

We argue that the future of creativity research should focus on the dual goals of the development of individuals with great creative genius as well as the enhancement of creative activity in society in general. To achieve these goals, we need basic research that will help us better understand the fundamental nature of creativity. We describe an approach to creativity that emphasizes novelty over utility.