Are Newcomb problems really decisions?

Richard Jeffrey long held that decision theory should be formulated without recourse to explicitly causal notions. Newcomb problems stand out as putative counterexamples to this ‘evidential’ decision theory. Jeffrey initially sought to defuse Newcomb problems via recourse to the doctrine of ratificationism, but later came to see this as problematic. We will see that Jeffrey’s worries about ratificationism were not compelling, but that valid ratificationist arguments implicitly presuppose causal decision theory. In later work, Jeffrey argued that Newcomb problems are not decisions at all because agents who face them possess so much evidence about correlations between their actions and states of the world that they are unable to regard their deliberate choices as causes of outcomes, and so cannot see themselves as making free choices. Jeffrey’s reasoning goes wrong because it fails to recognize that an agent’s beliefs about her immediately available acts are so closely tied to the immediate causes of these actions that she can create evidence that outweighs any antecedent correlations between acts and states. Once we recognize that deliberating agents are free to believe what they want about their own actions, it will be clear that Newcomb problems are indeed counterexamples to evidential decision theory.     

从多元概化理论看高考综合能力测试的改进

通过多元概化理论的研究发现,高考综合能力测试（2001,广东）的总体信度达到了可以接受的水平（0.784）。但测验中各部分对总方差的贡献程度与预定的赋分比例有较大差距。其中,地理和政治的贡献度偏低,化学和历史的贡献度偏高。这表明有（历史和化学）偏科特点的考生得到了较高的综合分数。又经决策(D)研究发现,增加地理部分的题量会反常地降低测验的总体信度,这说明有不少高分考生答错或主动放弃了地理科题目。因此,如何有效控制各部分的实际贡献程度、避免负面导向是当前高考综合能力测试亟待解决的问题。     

Basic Infobase Change

Generalisations of theory change involving arbitrary sets of wffs instead of belief sets have become known as base change. In one view, a base should be thought of as providing more structure to its generated belief set, and can be used to determine the theory change operation associated with a base change operation. In this paper we extend a proposal along these lines by Meyer et al. We take an infobase as a finite sequence of wffs, with each element in the sequence being seen as an independently obtained bit of information, and define appropriate infobase change operations. The associated theory change operations satisfy the AGM postulates for theory change. Since an infobase change operation produces a new infobase, it allows for iterated infobase change. We measure iterated infobase change against the postulates proposed by Darwiche et al. and Lehmann.     

Deconstructing consumer behaviour: theory and practice

This paper challenges the conventional opposition, or distinction, between consumer behaviour theory and practice. This binary dualism, it is argued, is predicated on a simplistic ‘either/or’ logic that ignores the effects theory and practice have on each other. Furthermore, it obscures a hierarchical relationship between academic researchers and marketing practitioners in which basic research is more dominant and privileged than applied research. In response to these criticisms, an alternative ‘both/and’ logic is proposed for exploring the interrelationships between consumer behaviour theory and practice and new social relations among consumer researchers. Copyright © 2001 Henry Stewart Publications.     

A social-cognitive framework for understanding serious lies: Activation-decision-construction-action theory

Little is known about the cognition of deception (Gombos, 2006). We propose a cognitive account of serious lying (i.e., deception involving high stakes) in response to a solicitation of a truth: Activation-Decision-Construction-Action Theory (ADCAT). Built on the Activation-Decision-Construction Model of answering questions deceptively (Walczyk, Roper, Seeman, & Humphrey, 2003), the theory elaborates on the roles of executive processes, theory of mind, emotions, motivation, specifies cognitive processing thoroughly, and considers the rehearsal of lies. ADCAT's four processing components are (a) activation of the truth, the (b) decision whether and how to alter deceptively the information shared, (c) construction of a deception, and (d) action [acting sincere while delivering a lie]. Core constructs are “theory of mind” and “cognitive resources”. Specifically, throughout serious deception, individuals are inferring the current or potential mental states of targets and taking steps to minimize the allocation of cognitive resources during delivery to appear honest and lie well.     

Characterizing the manifest probabilities of latent trait models

The problem of characterizing the manifest probabilities of a latent trait model is considered. The item characteristic curve is transformed to the item passing-odds curve and a corresponding transformation is made on the distribution of ability. This results in a useful expression for the manifest probabilities of any latent trait model. The result is then applied to give a characterization of the Rasch model as a log-linear model for a 2 ^J -contingency table. Partial results are also obtained for other models. The question of the identifiability of “guessing” parameters is also discussed. The research reported here is collaborative in every respect and the order of authorship is alphabetical. Dr. Cressie was a Visiting Research Scientist at ETS during the Fall of 1980. His current address is: School of Mathematical Sciences, The Flinders University of South Australia, Bedford Park SA, 5042, AUSTRALIA. The preparation of this paper was supported, in part, by the Program Statistics Research Project in the Research Statistics Group at ETS.     

Cultivating the Opinionated: The Need to Evaluate Moderates the Relationship Between Crime Drama Viewing and Scary World Evaluations

The literature on cultivation processes assumes that second‐order judgments (e.g., attitudes) are repeatedly updated during viewing (i.e., on‐line) and can be reported when asked. In this article, we propose this reasoning only holds for people high in their need to evaluate (NTE). Low‐NTE individuals do not update their opinions on‐line and have to construct their attitudes memory‐based, limiting the likelihood of finding second‐order relationships. Results from a cross‐sectional survey among 226 adolescents indicate that crime drama viewing and scary world beliefs are only correlated among high‐NTE individuals. NTE does not moderate cultivation through nonfiction. The theoretical implications of memory‐based attitudes for second‐order cultivation are discussed, and suggestions are made for future research on attitudinal media effects.     

Staying grounded? Applying the theory of planned behaviour to explore motivations to reduce air travel

Air travel has been highlighted as a key environmental behaviour contributing to climate change. Given this, there is a surprising lack of theory-based research aimed at identifying factors that underpin motivation to reduce the number of flights taken. This study explored whether an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model could be usefully applied to identify significant predictors of intentions to reduce the number of flights taken for leisure, holidays or to visit family or friends. Results supported the predictive utility of the TPB; the extended model was able to account for 52% of the variance in intentions over and above past behaviour and socio-demographic variables. Attitudes, subjective norms and behaviour-specific self-identity emerged as significant linear predictors. Findings support the utility of applying the TPB to air travel and suggest key variables which could be targeted in interventions to promote motivation to reduce the number of flights taken.     

Predicting intentions to text and call while driving using the theory of planned behaviour

There is extensive evidence that using a mobile phone while driving causes degradation in driving performance, and thereby results in reduced safety on the road. The present study examined intentions to use mobile phones while driving using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). A total of 212 Ukrainian drivers (mean age = 35 years SD = 10 years; males = 82%) completed a survey that included measures of the TPB components related to intentions to send or read text messages or to make or receive handheld phone calls across two different scenarios; one where they were running late, and the other when they were not in a hurry. Measures of the frequency of mobile phone use were also collected. The results showed that 63% of the sample reported using a mobile phone while driving at least daily, with the most frequent types of usage being making and answering a phone call with a handheld device. The most consistent predictor of intentions to interact with a mobile phone while driving was having a positive attitude towards doing so. Perceived behavioural control was also significantly and positively associated with mobile phone use while driving, but only a small number of associations were found with subjective norms. Our results suggest that intentions to interact with mobile phones while driving may be context specific.