Learning to infer the time of our actions and decisions from their consequences

Research shows that people infer the time of their actions and decisions from their consequences. We asked how people know how much time to subtract from consequences in order to infer their actions and decisions. They could either subtract a fixed, default, time from consequences, or learn from experience how much time to subtract in each situation. In two experiments, participants’ actions were followed by a tone, which was presented either immediately or after a delay. In Experiment 1, participants estimated the time of their actions; in Experiment 2, the time of their decisions to act. Both actions and decisions were judged to occur sooner or later as a function of whether consequences were immediate or delayed. Estimations tended to be shifted toward their consequences, but in some cases they were shifted away from them. Most importantly, in all cases participants learned progressively to adjust their estimations with experience.     

Production planning of Pakistan Tobacco Company (PTC) using quantitative and multiple‐criteria decision analysis—A case in‐point

The main purpose of this paper is to improve the production planning of Pakistan Tobacco Company by selecting the most preferred brand and subsequently generating maximum profit from it. As the company produces a variety of products, the technique of multi criteria decision making is used to select the most preferred brand. To generate the maximum output from the preferred brand, different methods of qualitative managerial analysis are used, which include decision analysis to decide “why and where” the manufacturing should be carried out, transportation model to minimize the logistics cost while meeting the demand, and linear programming technique to maximize the profit generated in 2014–2015. The result obtained from analytical hierarchy process shows that the most preferred brand of the company with respect to price, quality, and comfort is John Player Gold Leaf. The decision analysis explains that this brand should be manufactured in the Jhelum factory of the company as it is more cost‐effective to produce and there is a high availability of resources. Transportation model minimizes the logistics cost of this brand from the 2 factories while meeting the demand at each provinces, central warehouse. Linear programming contributes in generating a profit of 32.738 billion PKR with an amount of 0.35 million PKR, which is more than that of the current profit of the company in the year. These results will allow the top management of the company to take corrective decisions well in time, gain a core competency in cost reduction, and make the supply chain process more efficient.     

Trait anhedonia is a transdiagnostic correlate of internalizing problems during adolescence

Developmental research documents that anhedonia, or diminished interest in usual activities, is associated with a diverse array of emotional problems in childhood and adolescence. Meanwhile, official nosologies desginate anhedonia as a more specific characteristic of major depressive disorder. Using a quantitative model of the internalizing domain, we compared the strength of transdiagnostic versus diagnosis-specific pathways from anhedonia to major depression (and other internalizing conditions) during adolescence. We recruited 241 youth ages 14–17 who completed semistructured interviews of anxiety and depressive disorders, as well as several self-report surveys of trait anhedonia and neuroticism. Confirmatory factor analysis of diagnostic correlations revealed good fit for a unidimensional model of the 10 internalizing conditions we assessed. This overarching internalizing dimension was statistically significantly correlated with trait anhedonia (r = 0.17) and neuroticism (r = 0.59). In contrast, anhedonia was virtually unrelated to major depression (r = −0.02), net the internalizing dimension. Thus, in this sample, the connection between anhedonia and major depression was explained by a transdiagnostic dimension presumed to underlie all internalizing problems. Compared to neuroticism, however, anhedonia had a more limited association with internalizing, consistent with established personality models of anxiety and depression. We conclude that these data are consistent with conceptualizing anhedonia predominantly as a transdiagnostic correlate of internalizing conditions, rather than a specific marker of major depression, in developmental psychopathology research and clinical interventions for young people.     

Thinking about complex decisions: How sleep and time-of-day influence complex choices

In this study, we systematically manipulate a person’s state of sleep; Sleep-deprived and Well-rested along with Matching or Mismatching the decision time-of-day to their circadian preferred time-of-day. We assessed how these conditions influenced performance on an incentivized complex decision task. In the overall analysis of these variables no differences emerged. However, a comparison of the more cognitively depleting Sleep-deprivation/Circadian-mismatch condition to the cognitively enhancing Well-rested/Circadian-match condition showed improved performance in the Well-rested/Circadian matched group for one complex decision task but not for the other. These findings build upon the existing literature on sleep and circadian rhythm effects while uniquely observing the combined effects of these variables on complex decision making.     

分布式群体在动态系统控制决策中的内隐学习

采用计算机网络模拟技术,考察分布式群体在动态系统控制决策过程中对系统规则的内隐学习效应及其迁移。结果表明,在决策者的显性规则知识量极少且没有增加的情况下,决策绩效随决策进程适应性提高。决策者所能报告的规则知识量与决策绩效的相关也不显著。同时,当决策任务目标转换时,决策的高绩效得以维持。这表明群体决策者能对动态系统规则进行内隐学习,且能正迁移到类似的决策情景中。研究进一步指出,群体决策行为的动态适应与内隐过程有关。     

Book Review

Performance-based measures and ratings of executive functions were examined in a sample of adolescents with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and comparison controls. Performance-based measures of executive function included inhibition, working memory, set shifting, and planning, and ratings of these same executive functions were completed by parents and teachers. Adolescents with ADHD demonstrated lower executive function performance than controls and displayed elevated ratings on the executive function ratings by parents and teachers. Significant associations were obtained between the performance-based measures and the parent and teacher ratings, but each measure was not uniquely associated with its respective scale on the rating scales. When performance-based measures and ratings were examined as predictors of ADHD status, the parent and teacher ratings entered as significant predictors of ADHD status. Further commonality analyses indicated that performance-based measures accounted for little unique variance in predicting ADHD status and also displayed little overlap with the behavioral ratings. These findings highlight the diagnostic utility of behavioral ratings of executive function in predicting ADHD status; however, behavioral ratings should not be assumed to be a proxy for performance on measures of executive function in clinical practice.     

Reasoning Is for Arguing: Understanding the Successes and Failures of Deliberation

Theoreticians of deliberative democracy have sometimes found it hard to relate to the seemingly contradictory experimental results produced by psychologists and political scientists. We suggest that this problem may be alleviated by inserting a layer of psychological theory between the empirical results and the normative political theory. In particular, we expose the argumentative theory of reasoning that makes the observed pattern of findings more coherent. According to this theory, individual reasoning mechanisms work best when used to produce and evaluate arguments during a public deliberation. It predicts that when diverse opinions are discussed, group reasoning will outperform individual reasoning. It also predicts that individuals have a strong confirmation bias. When people reason either alone or with like‐minded peers, this confirmation bias leads them to reinforce their initial attitudes, explaining individual and group polarization. We suggest that the failures of reasoning are most likely to be remedied at the collective than at the individual level.     

Learning to Decide with and without Reasoning: How Task Experience Affects Attribute Weighting and Preference Stability

Certain experiments have shown that reasoning may weaken the stability of people's preferences, especially with regard to well‐learned perceptual judgment and decision‐making tasks, while learning has an opposite, consistency‐enhancing effect on preferences. We examined the effects of these factors in a visual multi‐attribute decision‐making task where reasoning, in contrast, has been found to benefit judgments by making them more stable. The initial assumption in this study was that this benefit would be typical for novel tasks, like the one employed here, and that it would decrease when the task is thoroughly learned. This assumption was examined in three experiments by contrasting it with an alternative assumption that this previously obtained beneficial effect is caused solely by learning, not by reasoning. It was found that learning indeed makes preferences more stable by consolidating the weights of the attributes. Reasoning, however, does not benefit this task when it is completely novel but facilitates learning and stability of the preferences long run, therefore increasing the consistency of the participants in the macrolevel. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.