Statistics as psychometrics

In this paper, modern statistics is considered as a branch of psychometrics and the question of how the central problems of statistics can be resolved using psychometric methods is investigated. Theories and methods developed in the fields of test theory, scaling, and factor analysis are related to the principle problems of modern statistical theory and method. Topics surveyed include assessment of probabilities, assessment of utilities, assessment of exchangeability, preposterior analysis, adversary analysis, multiple comparisons, the selection of predictor variables, and full-rank ANOVA. Reference is made to some literature from the field of cognitive psychology to indicate some of the difficulties encountered in probability and utility assessment. Some methods for resolving these difficulties using the Computer-Assisted Data Analysis (CADA) Monitor are described, as is some recent experimental work on utility assessment.1980 Psychometric Society presidential address.I am indebted to Paul Slovic and David Libby for valuable consultation on the issues discussed in this paper and to Nancy Turner and Laura Novick for assistance in preparation.Research reported herein was supported under contract number N00014-77-C-0428 from the Office of Naval Research to The University of Iowa, Melvin R. Novick, principal investigator. Opinions expressed herein reflect those of the author and not those of sponsoring agencies.     

Statistical inference for false positive and false negative error rates in mastery testing

This paper describes an asymptotic inferential procedure for the estimates of the false positive and false negative error rates. Formulas and tables are described for the computations of the standard errors. A simulation study indicates that the asymptotic standard errors may be used even with samples of 25 cases as long as the Kuder-Richardson Formula 21 reliability is reasonably large. Otherwise, a large sample would be required.This work was performed pursuant to Grant No NIE-G-78-0087 with the National Institute of Education, Department of Health, Education and Welfare, Huynh Huynh, Principal Investigator. Points of view or opinions stated do not necessarily reflect NIE position or policy and no official endorsement should be inferred. The editorial assistance of Joseph C. Saunders is gratefully acknowledged.     

The comparative effectiveness of two modes of observer training on the Staff-Resident Interaction Chronograph

The comparative effectiveness of two time-limited modes of training observers to code activity on the Staff-Resident Interaction Chronograph (SRIC) in residential treatment programs for mentally disabled adults was evaluated. The susceptibility of training procedures for consensual observer drift was also examined, as was the predictability of SRIC mastery from trainee characteristics. Two equated groups of undergraduate student trainees (N=15 each) participated in full-time training for 27 days, followed by two weeks of criterion testing in vivo and on videotapes. One group received training by experience personnel using procedures known to be effective (original method). The other group received training via a previously untested set of written and videotaped procedures that do not rely on experienced personnel (package method). Multivariate and univariate analyses of variance found both methods to be equally effective in the degree of mastery achieved by trainees, without evidence of observer drift. No meaningful predictions of coding mastery were found, but conceptual mastery was predictable from individual characteristics. Differences were obtained for both groups between in vivo versus videotaped criterion tests. The results document procedures that are both efficient and resistant to invalidity for complex observational methodology as well as feasible for standardizing assessment of staff functioning across residential settings.This article is based on a thesis submitted to the Graduate College of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree in psychology by the first author under direction of the second author. The third and fourth authors also participated as supervisors. Appreciation is extended to other members of the thesis committee, Fred Kanfer, W. Robert Nay, Julian Rappaport, and James Wardrop, for their comments and recommendations. This study was partially supported by Public Health Service Grants MH-25464 and MH-14257 from the National Institute of Mental Health, and by grants from The Joyce Foundation and the Illinois Department of Mental Health and Developmental Disabilities.     

Self-monitoring behavior in a case of severe auditory agnosia with aphasia

This case report describes an unusual combination of speech and language deficits secondary to bilateral infarctions in a 62-year-old woman. The patient was administered an extensive series of speech, language, and audiologic tests and was found to exhibit a fluent aphasia in which reading and writing were extremely well preserved in comparison to auditory comprehension and oral expression, and a severe auditory agnosia. In spite of her auditory processing deficits, the patient exhibited unexpected self-monitoring ability and the capacity to form acoustic images on visual tasks. The manner in which she corrected and attempted to correct her phonemic errors, while ignoring semantic errors, suggests that different mechanisms may underlie the monitoring of these errors.     

Diagnostic accuracy of the Millon test computer reports for bipolar affective disorder

The diagnostic accuracy of the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI) computer reports was assessed for the sample of 48 patients reliably identified as having bipolar affective disorder. Only 13 of the 48 reports were accurate in classifying the patients as having bipolar affective disorder, and this was significantly (p < .01) less than 50% of the cases. The diagnostic accuracy clearly left much to be desired. Additional research is needed to assess the validity of MCMI diagnostic suggestions for other patient groups.     

The effectiveness of workplace counselling: A systematic review

Background: In response to the stresses of the contemporary workplace, the challenges of maintaining satisfactory work-life balance, and the costs to business of employee mental health problems, many organisations have contracted to make counselling services available to their staff. It is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of workplace counselling, in order to maintain standards, and to identify examples of good practice. Objectives: This paper presents a comprehensive, systematic review of the effectiveness of workplace counselling. Findings are analysed in terms of client satisfaction, psychological functioning, the meaning of work, work behaviour, and negative outcomes. Findings: Taken as a whole, the results of research suggest that counselling is generally effective in alleviating psychological problems, has a significant impact on sickness absence, and has a moderate effect on attitudes to work. Discussion: Methodological issues are discussed, and it is recommended that more high-quality research is required in order to reinforce the evidence base for workplace counselling in relation to a number of key questions.     

Opposite ERP effects for conscious and unconscious semantic processing under continuous flash suppression

We examined whether semantic processing occurs without awareness using continuous flash suppression (CFS). In two priming tasks, participants were required to judge whether a target was a word or a non-word, and to report whether the masked prime was visible. Experiment 1 manipulated the lexical congruency between the prime-target pairs and Experiment 2 manipulated their semantic relatedness. Despite the absence of behavioral priming effects (Experiment 1), the ERP results revealed that an N4 component was sensitive to the prime-target lexical congruency (Experiment 1) and semantic relatedness (Experiment 2) when the prime was rendered invisible under CFS. However, these results were reversed with respect to those that emerged when the stimuli were perceived consciously. Our findings suggest that some form of lexical and semantic processing can occur during CFS-induced unawareness, but are associated with different electrophysiological outcomes.     

Introspection during visual search

Recent advances in the field of metacognition have shown that human participants are introspectively aware of many different cognitive states, such as confidence in a decision. Here we set out to expand the range of experimental introspection by asking whether participants could access, through pure mental monitoring, the nature of the cognitive processes that underlie two visual search tasks: an effortless “pop-out” search, and a difficult, effortful, conjunction search. To this aim, in addition to traditional first order performance measures, we instructed participants to give, on a trial-by-trial basis, an estimate of the number of items scanned before a decision was reached. By controlling response times and eye movements, we assessed the contribution of self-observation of behavior in these subjective estimates. Results showed that introspection is a flexible mechanism and that pure mental monitoring of cognitive processes is possible in elementary tasks.     

Production planning of Pakistan Tobacco Company (PTC) using quantitative and multiple‐criteria decision analysis—A case in‐point

The main purpose of this paper is to improve the production planning of Pakistan Tobacco Company by selecting the most preferred brand and subsequently generating maximum profit from it. As the company produces a variety of products, the technique of multi criteria decision making is used to select the most preferred brand. To generate the maximum output from the preferred brand, different methods of qualitative managerial analysis are used, which include decision analysis to decide “why and where” the manufacturing should be carried out, transportation model to minimize the logistics cost while meeting the demand, and linear programming technique to maximize the profit generated in 2014–2015. The result obtained from analytical hierarchy process shows that the most preferred brand of the company with respect to price, quality, and comfort is John Player Gold Leaf. The decision analysis explains that this brand should be manufactured in the Jhelum factory of the company as it is more cost‐effective to produce and there is a high availability of resources. Transportation model minimizes the logistics cost of this brand from the 2 factories while meeting the demand at each provinces, central warehouse. Linear programming contributes in generating a profit of 32.738 billion PKR with an amount of 0.35 million PKR, which is more than that of the current profit of the company in the year. These results will allow the top management of the company to take corrective decisions well in time, gain a core competency in cost reduction, and make the supply chain process more efficient.