Confidence in judgments based on incomplete information: An investigation using both hypothetical and real gambles

This study assessed how confidence in judgments is affected by the need to make inferences about missing information. Subjects indicated their likelihood of taking each of a series of gambles based on both probability and payoff information or only one of these sources of information. They also rated their confidence in each likelihood judgment. Subjects in the Explicit Inference condition were asked to explicitly estimate the values of missing information before making their responses while subjects in the Implicit Inference condition were not. The manner in which probability information was framed was also manipulated. Experiment 1 employed hypothetical gambles and Experiment 2 employed gambles with real money. Expressed likelihood of taking gambles was higher when probability was phrased in terms of '% chance of winning' rather than '% chance of losing', but this difference was somewhat less with real gambles than with hypothetical gambles. Confidence ratings in each experiment were actually higher on incomplete information trials than on complete information trials in the Explicit Inference condition. Results were related to the general issue of confidence in judgments.     

Effectiveness of the GOFER course in decision making for high school students

The paper describes and evaluates the GOFER course in decision making for high school students (Mann, Harmoni and Power, 1988). The course was based on principles from the conflict theory of decision making (Janis and Mann, 1977) and was designed to provide adolescents with an understanding of factors that produce good and poor decision making as well as knowledge and practice of sound decision skills. Two evaluation studies were conducted to examine effectiveness of the course. Study 1 was conducted with young adolescents (12 year olds). It found a significant difference between students trained in the course and a control group on measures of self-esteem as a decision maker, self reported decision habits and knowledge of decision strategy. Study 2 was conducted with mid-adolescents (15 year olds). It, too, found a significant difference between students who took the course and a control group on measures of self esteem as a decision maker and self-reported decision habits. It is concluded that while the evaluation study fell short of an ideal test, the GOFER course met the criteria of improving student knowledge, raising confidence in decision making and changing self reported decision habits.     

Factor invariance of the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory

Several factor analyses of the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory (MCMI) have resulted in very similar solutions. Interpretation of this consistency is hampered by the fact that the 20 scales of the inventory share items. Overlapping items cause the scales to be linearly dependent and may create structure in the interscale correlation matrix which is separate from the subject response patterns. A factor analysis was performed on the matrix of item-overlap coefficients which describes the underlying artifactual structure of the instrument. Data from two new subject samples were factor analyzed and compared to previously published studies. Similarity coefficients among factors across studies were calculated.     

Daily stress and anxiety and their relation to daily fluctuations of symptoms in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients

Although stress and anxiety have long been assumed to play an exacerbatory role in asthma, no study has systematically documented that daily exacerbations of asthma symptoms are related to stress and/or anxiety. In this study, 24 airways obstruction patients (12 asthmatics and 12 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients) were instructed to monitor the severity of daily respiratory symptoms. In addition, subjects recorded their daily anxiety level and the number and perceived impact of daily stressors. The results showed that although there were differences between high- and low-stress days for both groups, there were no differences between groups on symptom severity or between high- and low-anxiety days, as measured by the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI). Thus, although the number and impact of daily stressors were found to be directly associated with the severity of asthma symptoms, anxiety does not appear to have a direct role in the exacerbation of asthma. The findings failed to support the anxiety theory of asthma but provided an explanation for the poor results obtained in previous treatment studies which employed anxiety management with asthmatics.     

Factor structure of the Treatment Evaluation Inventory: Implications for measurement of treatment acceptability

The Treatment Evaluation Inventory (TEI), a frequently used measure of treatment acceptability, was used by 164 undergraduates to rate the acceptability of each of the following treatments: differential reinforcement of other behavior, exclusionary time-out, overcorrection, medical restraint, contingent electric shock, and physical restraint. TEI ratings of each treatment type were grouped separately, variance-covariance matrices were formed and compared, and data were subjected to factor analysis. The results indicated that the factor structure of the TEI varied with the treatment it was used to evaluate. Item analysis of the TEI indicated a high degree of internal consistency, although item-total correlations varied between rated treatments. The findings suggest that although the TEI is a reliable instrument, sensitive assessment of the treatment acceptability construct probably requires multidimensional measurement.     

Aristotle and the tradition of rhetorical argumentation

The first part of this paper contends that argumentation is central and essential to Aristotle's Rhetoric, and recounts a number of arguments in support of that view, particularly the recognition that deliberative rhetoric or the rhetoric of counsel is the primary concern of Aristotle's work. The second part of the paper reviews the work that follows in this present volume to show that the other writers' views fit in perfectly with this thesis.     

Minimizing the number of observations: A generalization of the spearman-brown formula

A new method for determining the minimum number of observations per subject needed to achieve a specific generalizability coefficient is presented. This method, which consists of a branch-and-bound algorithm, allows for the employment of constraints specified by the investigator.     

Incorporating prior theory in covariance structure analysis: A bayesian approach

A Bayesian approach to the testing of competing covariance structures is developed. The method provides approximate posterior probablities for each model under consideration without prior specification of individual parameter distributions. The method is based on ayesian updating using cross-validated pseudo-likelihoods. Given that the observed variables are the samefor all competing models, the approximate posterior probabilities may be obtained easily from the chi square values and other known constants, using only a hand calculator. The approach is illustrated using and example which illustrates how the prior probabilities can alter the results concerning which model specification is preferred.     

TOWARD A NEW RELATION BETWEEN HUMANITY AND NATURE: RECONSTRUCTING T'IEN-JEN-HO-I

Abstract. The traditional Chinese idea of t'ien-jen-ho-i (Heaven and humanity in union) implies that humanity has to live in harmony with nature. As science and technology progress, however, the idea appears increasingly outmoded, and it becomes fashionable to talk about overcoming nature. Ironically, though, the further science reaches the more clearly are its limitations exposed. The exploitation of nature not only endangers many life forms on earth but threatens the very existence of the human species. I propose that a reconstruction of the traditional Chinese idea of T'ien-jen-ho-i will help us envisage a new and salutary relation between humanity and nature.     

The pathological left-handedness syndrome

A clinical syndrome of pathological left-handedness (PLH) is proposed to identify the pattern of correlative changes in lateral development associated with early brain injury in some manifest left-handers. This syndrome is believed to be caused by a hemispheric lesion that is predominantly left-sided (or bilateral asymmetric), which onsets before Age 6, and which encroaches upon the critical speech zones of the frontotemporal/frontoparietal cortex. The pattern of changes may include any or all of the following features: shifts in manual dominance, trophic changes in the extremities, transfer of hemispheric speech, and/or intrahemispheric reorganization of visuospatial cognitive functions. Although some of these correlates of PLH have long been known, they have not been recognized as an interrelated pattern of traits that constitute a clinical syndrome. Identification of these individuals, all manifest left-handers, will be shown to have implications for diagnosis/remediation and for models of recovery of function.