从黑夜走向黎明：动脉粥样硬化从早期发现到消退

年１０年来,动态粥样硬化的早期诊断已成为可能,影像学能无创直接检测血管功能和形态学变化。在此基础上,动态粥样硬化的防治也进入了一级预防的时代。一级预防使早期粥样硬化消退,特效降脂药也可使中、晚期粥样硬化患者明显受益。随着对动态粥样硬化发病机制认识的不断深入,到下世纪初,人类有可能终止动态粥样硬化在全球的肆虐。     

A note on monotone polygons fitted to bivariate data

The monotone regression function of Kruskal and the rank image function of Guttman and Lingoes were fitted to bivariate normal samples and their statistical properties contrasted.This paper was written while the author was a Visiting Professor in the Department of Psychology, University College, London.     

Trend in correlated proportions

A random effects probit model is developed for the case in which the same units are sampled repeatedly at each level of an independent variable. Because the observed proportions may be correlated under these conditions, estimating their trend with respect to the independent variable is no longer a standard problem for probit, logit or loglinear analysis. Using a qualitative analogue of a random regressions model, we employ instead marginal maximum likelihood to estimate the average latent trend line. Likelihood ratio tests of the hypothesis of no trend in the average line, and the hypothesis of no differences in average trend lines between experimental treatments, are proposed. We illustrate the model both with simulated data and with observed data from a clinical experiment in which psychiatric patients on two drug therapies are rated on five occasions for the presence or absence of symptoms.Supported by a grant from the MacArthur Foundation and National Science Foundation Grant BNS85-11774.The authors are indebted to James Heckman for calling our attention to the Clark algorithm.     

The rank of reduced dispersion matrices

Psychometricians working in factor analysis and econometricians working in regression with measurement error in all variables are both interested in the rank of dispersion matrices under variation of the diagonal elements. Psychometricians concentrate on cases in which low rank can be attained, preferably rank one, the Spearman case. Econometricians cocentrate on cases in which the rank cannot be reduced below the number of variables minus one, the Frisch case. In this paper we give an extensive historial discussion of both fields, we prove the two key results in a more satisfactory and uniform way, we point out various small errors and misunderstandings, and we present a methodological comparison of factor analysis and regression on the basis of our results.Financial support by the Netherlands Organization for the Advancement of Pure Research (ZWO) is gratefully acknowledged.     

Tableau algorithms for factor analysis by instrumental variable methods

Simple tableau algorithms are given for the noniterative instrumental variable (FABIN 2) and two stage regression (FABIN 3) factor loading estimates of Hägglund. Corresponding generalized least squares estimates of factor covariances and unique variances are introduced. An example is given for the purpose of illustration and comparison.This research was supported by NSF Grant MCS-8301587.     

Some additional results on principal components analysis of three-mode data by means of alternating least squares algorithms

Kroonenberg and de Leeuw (1980) have developed an alternating least-squares method TUCKALS-3 as a solution for Tucker's three-way principal components model. The present paper offers some additional features of their method. Starting from a reanalysis of Tucker's problem in terms of a rank-constrained regression problem, it is shown that the fitted sum of squares in TUCKALS-3 can be partitioned according to elements of each mode of the three-way data matrix. An upper bound to the total fitted sum of squares is derived. Finally, a special case of TUCKALS-3 is related to the Carroll/Harshman CANDECOMP/PARAFAC model.     

A stochastic growth model applied to repeated tests of academic knowledge

In the course of the medical program at the University of Limburg, students complete a total of 24 progress tests, consisting of items drawn from a constant itembank. A model is presented for the growth of knowledge reflected by these results. The Rasch model is used as a starting point, but both ability and difficulty parameters are taken to be random, and moreover the logistic distribution is replaced by the normal. Both individual and group abilities are estimated and explained through simple linear regression. Application to real data shows that the model fits very well.     

With a brick in hand. Transformation in exile

‘I’m like the man who took along a brick/to show the world what his house was like.’ Reflecting on Bertolt Brecht’s brick, which is symbolically taken along from the homeland, allows us the opportunity to explore the changing modalities of traumatic experience in displaced persons. The brick does not merely represent lost objects, home, and homeland but also stands for the displaced person and his psychic integrity. The challenge for every displaced person is to transition away from the basic survival mode, dominated by the drives of self-preservation, to regain the ability to symbolize and to start dreaming again. The way a poet processes his own traumatic experiences of displacement and escape may serve as a roadmap for others. Works by Mario Benedetti and Bertolt Brecht, both émigré poets, alongside clinical examples, form the psychological material. Recurring thoughts of an uncertain return to the homeland may become debilitating, causing a displaced person to descend into mourning or melancholy and can even lead to open outbursts of previously strongly defended aggression. If it is not possible to sufficiently work through the trauma, then the bricks will fall everywhere. In the regressive emotionally charged condition, it holds true: in the beginning was the act.     

德性自我意象、道德情绪与行为自我管理：对大学生的一项交叉滞后研究

研究采用交叉时序滞后设计,以问卷法对363名大学生进行了6个月的追踪调查,考察了德性自我意象、道德情绪（内疚/羞愧）与行为自我管理之间的相互预测关系。结果表明,德性自我意象、内疚和羞愧均能显著地正向预测道德行为自我管理,德性自我意象、内疚和羞愧可能是道德行为自我管理的前因变量。     

Predicting stress patterns in an unpredictable stress language: The use of non-lexical sources of evidence for stress assignment in Russian

The main goal of this research was to examine how readers of Russian assign stress to disyllabic words. In particular, we tested the claim that the process of stress assignment in Russian can only be accomplished lexically. Eleven potential non-lexical sources of evidence for stress in Russian were examined in regression and factorial studies. In Study 1, onset complexity, coda complexity, the orthography of the first syllable (CVC1), of the second syllable (CVC2), and of the ending of the second syllable (VC2) were found to be probabilistically associated with stress in Russian disyllables. In Studies 2 and 3, it was shown that Russian speakers do use 3 of these cues (CVC1, CVC2, and VC2) when making stress-assignment decisions. These results provide evidence against the idea that the nature of stress in the Russian language is so unpredictable that stress assignment can only be accomplished lexically. These results also suggest that any successful model of stress assignment in Russian needs to contain mechanisms allowing these 3 orthographic cues to play a role in the stress-assignment process.