On testing the equality of proportions in the paired case with incomplete data

The problem of testing two correlated proportions with incomplete data is considered by means of Monte Carlo simulations studies. A test proposed in this paper, which can be regarded as a generalization of McNemar's test, is recommended in all cases with incomplete data and not too small samples.     

A study of the classification capabilities of neural networks using unsupervised learning: A comparison withK-means clustering

Several neural networks have been proposed in the general literature for pattern recognition and clustering, but little empirical comparison with traditional methods has been done. The results reported here compare neural networks using Kohonen learning with a traditional clustering method (K-means) in an experimental design using simulated data with known cluster solutions. Two types of neural networks were examined, both of which used unsupervised learning to perform the clustering. One used Kohonen learning with a conscience and the other used Kohonen learning without a conscience mechanism. The performance of these nets was examined with respect to changes in the number of attributes, the number of clusters, and the amount of error in the data. Generally, theK-means procedure had fewer points misclassified while the classification accuracy of neural networks worsened as the number of clusters in the data increased from two to five.Acknowledgements: Sara Dickson, Vidya Nair, and Beth Means assisted with the neural network analyses.     

Enumeration and simulation methods for 0–1 matrices with given marginals

Data in the form of zero-one matrices where conditioning on the marginals is relevant arise in diverse fields such as social networks and ecology; directed graphs constitute an important special case. An algorithm is given for the complete enumeration of the family of all zero-one matrices with given marginals and with a prespecified set of cells with structural zero entries. Complete enumeration is computationally feasible only for relatively small matrices. Therefore, a more useable Monte Carlo simulation method for the uniform distribution over this family is given, based on unequal probability sampling and ratio estimation. This method is applied to testing reciprocity of choices in social networks.The author wishes to thank Cajo ter Braak and John Birks for pointing out the relevance of this subject for ecology; and also Albert Verbeek and Ivo Molenaar, a referee, the Editor, and the Associate Editor for their comments. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Stockholm Conference on Random Graphs and Applications (April 25–27, 1989), organized with financial support from the Swedish Council of Research in the Humanities and the Social Sciences.     

基于人工神经网络的一种效度凭证求取方法

针对基于统计学的效度凭证求取方法所存在的问题,提出了基于人工神经网络的效度凭证求取方法。蒙特卡罗模拟实验和对实际数据的分析表明,当测验分数和效标分数为单变量且非线性关系时,或者测验分数和效标分数为多变量时,运用神经网络方法可以比统计学方法更好地求取心理测验效度的基于和其他变量关系的凭证。     

GPCM模型项目参数估计程序的开发与研究

该文对GPCM的项目参数估计的方法进行较为深入的探讨,特别对容易混淆的参数初值计算以及项目参数分两步进行估计的原因进行了阐述。并且基于MMLE／EM算法,开发了相应的项目参数估计程序。通过大量的蒙特卡洛模拟,与国外专业软件PARSCALE比较,本程序的步骤参数估计值更好,区分度参数估计值相当,具有较好的应用价值。     

A Latent Class Multidimensional Scaling Model for Two-Way One-Mode Continuous Rating Dissimilarity Data

In this paper, we propose a cluster-MDS model for two-way one-mode continuous rating dissimilarity data. The model aims at partitioning the objects into classes and simultaneously representing the cluster centers in a low-dimensional space. Under the normal distribution assumption, a latent class model is developed in terms of the set of dissimilarities in a maximum likelihood framework. In each iteration, the probability that a dissimilarity belongs to each of the blocks conforming to a partition of the original dissimilarity matrix, and the rest of parameters, are estimated in a simulated annealing based algorithm. A model selection strategy is used to test the number of latent classes and the dimensionality of the problem. Both simulated and classical dissimilarity data are analyzed to illustrate the model.     

A Monte Carlo method for comparing generalized estimating equations to conventional statistical techniques for discounting data

Discounting is the process by which outcomes lose value. Much of discounting research has focused on differences in the degree of discounting across various groups. This research has relied heavily on conventional null hypothesis significance tests that are familiar to psychologists, such as t‐tests and ANOVAs. As discounting research questions have become more complex by simultaneously focusing on within‐subject and between‐group differences, conventional statistical testing is often not appropriate for the obtained data. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) are one type of mixed‐effects model that are designed to handle autocorrelated data, such as within‐subject repeated‐measures data, and are therefore more appropriate for discounting data. To determine if GEE provides similar results as conventional statistical tests, we compared the techniques across 2,000 simulated data sets. The data sets were created using a Monte Carlo method based on an existing data set. Across the simulated data sets, the GEE and the conventional statistical tests generally provided similar patterns of results. As the GEE and more conventional statistical tests provide the same pattern of result, we suggest researchers use the GEE because it was designed to handle data that has the structure that is typical of discounting data.     

抗感染治疗的今天和明天

抗菌药物治疗是临床医学界普遍关切的问题。滥用抗生素的问题引起社会和政府的重视。但解决这问题需要重视调查研究,充分应用科学研究成果,制定科学合理的政策和规定。本文还从医生的角度,对经验用药、社区获得性肺炎治疗中的几个问题,介绍了国外的做法,对应用药代动力学和最低抑菌浓度结合的研究方法,包括Monte Carlo模拟的实验和临床研究,以及防突变浓度（MPC）和突变选择窗（MEw）的概念作了介绍。     

校正的Bootstrap方法对概化理论方差分量及其变异量估计的改善

Bootstrap方法是一种有放回的再抽样方法, 可用于概化理论的方差分量及其变异量估计。用Monte Carlo技术模拟四种分布数据, 分别是正态分布、二项分布、多项分布和偏态分布数据。基于p×i设计, 探讨校正的Bootstrap方法相对于未校正的Bootstrap方法, 是否改善了概化理论估计四种模拟分布数据的方差分量及其变异量。结果表明：跨越四种分布数据, 从整体到局部, 不论是“点估计”还是“变异量”估计, 校正的Bootstrap方法都要优于未校正的Bootstrap方法, 校正的Bootstrap方法改善了概化理论方差分量及其变异量估计。     

How Do Propensity Score Methods Measure Up in the Presence of Measurement Error? A Monte Carlo Study

Considering that the absence of measurement error in research is a rare phenomenon and its effects can be dramatic, we examine the impact of measurement error on propensity score (PS) analysis used to minimize selection bias in behavioral and social observational studies. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to explore the effects of measurement error on the treatment effect and balance estimates in PS analysis across seven different PS conditioning methods. In general, the results indicate that even low levels of measurement error in the covariates lead to substantial bias in estimates of treatment effects and concomitant reduction in confidence interval coverage across all methods of conditioning on the PS.