Null hypothesis significance testing and Type I error: The domain problem

Although many common uses of p-values for making statistical inferences in contemporary scientific research have been shown to be invalid, no one, to our knowledge, has adequately assessed the main original justification for their use, which is that they can help to control the Type I error rate (Neyman & Pearson, 1928, 1933). We address this issue head-on by asking a specific question: Across what domain, specifically, do we wish to control the Type I error rate? For example, do we wish to control it across all of science, across all of a specific discipline such as psychology, across a researcher's active lifetime, across a substantive research area, across an experiment, or across a set of hypotheses? In attempting to answer these questions, we show that each one leads to troubling dilemmas wherein controlling the Type I error rate turns out to be inconsistent with other scientific desiderata. This inconsistency implies that we must make a choice. In our view, the other scientific desiderata are much more valuable than controlling the Type I error rate and so it is the latter, rather than the former, with which we must dispense. But by doing so—that is, by eliminating the Type I error justification for computing and using p-values—there is even less reason to believe that p is useful for validly rejecting null hypotheses than previous critics have suggested.     

FAITH,BELIEF, AND THE COMPATIBILITY OF RELIGION AND SCIENCE

Recent attacks on the compatibility of science and religion by the “militant modern atheists” (Jerry Coyne, Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett, Sam Harris, Christopher Hitchens) have posed serious challenges for anyone who supports the human importance of religious faith (particularly their identification of “faith” with “believing without evidence”). This article offers a critical analysis of their claims compared with those who do not equate faith with belief. I conclude that (i) the militant modern atheist interpretation of faith undervalues transformative religious experiences, (ii) that more people of faith hold it for this reason than their opponents acknowledge, and (iii) that meaningful dialogue between religion and science is both possible and desirable.     

The Pronoun Attraction Effect for D(iscourse)-Linked Phrases: Evidence from Speakers of a Null Subject Language

Frazier and Clifton (2002) argue that a d(iscourse)-linked wh-phrase such as which boy attracts the reference of a pronoun in a subordinate clause. We translated Frazier and Clifton's materials from English into Romanian. Romanian is a pro-drop language in which null subjects are licensed by person and number agreement on the verb. We found that the d-linking attraction effect held for both pro and overt pronouns in Romanian. The fact that the effect is found for pro provides evidence that the attraction effect is not due to gender matching between the pronoun and the head of the d-linked phrase. We also tested native speakers of Romanian learning English as a second language on Frazier and Clifton's English materials Levels of coreference were highly similar to those for English native speakers and intermediate and advanced learners showed the d-linking attraction effect. We discuss the results in the context of Carminati's (2002) Position of Antecedent Hypothesis, arguing that this hypothesis can account for both the fact that higher levels of coreference with a wh-phrase antecedent were found for pro than for an overt pronoun in Romanian and the fact that the coreference levels between an overt pronoun and the wh-phrase antecedent were not elevated for Romanian-speaking second language learners of English.     

Children can solve Bayesian problems: the role of representation in mental computation

Can children reason the Bayesian way? We argue that the answer to this question depends on how numbers are represented, because a representation can do part of the computation. We test, for the first time, whether Bayesian reasoning can be elicited in children by means of natural frequencies. We show that when information was presented to fourth, fifth, and sixth graders in terms of probabilities, their ability to estimate the Bayesian posterior probability was zero. Yet when the same information was presented in natural frequencies, Bayesian reasoning showed a steady increase from fourth to sixth grade, reaching an average level of 19, 39, and 53%, respectively, in two studies. Sixth graders' performance with natural frequencies matched the performance of adults with probabilities. But this general increase was accompanied by striking individual differences. More than half of the sixth graders solved most or all problems, whereas one third could not solve a single one. An analysis of the children's responses provides evidence for the use of three non-Bayesian strategies. These follow an overlapping wave model of development and continue to be observed in the minds of adults. More so than adults' probabilistic reasoning, children's reasoning depends on a proper representation of information.     

Operationalizing the "vulnerability" and "stress" components of the hopelessness theory of depression: a multi-wave longitudinal study

The current study tested of the diathesis-stress component of the hopelessness theory (HT) using (1) a "weakest link" approach towards operationalizing vulnerability (e.g., an individual is as vulnerable to depression as his/her most depressogenic inferential style-DIS) and (2) an idiographic approach towards operationalizing high levels of stress. The procedure involved an initial assessment during which participants completed measures assessing DISs and depressive symptoms. The procedure also involved a series of eight follow-up assessments, occurring every 6 weeks, during which depressive symptoms and hassles were assessed. Hypotheses were tested in two samples of adults (i.e., adults diagnosed with a current MDE and adults diagnosed with a past MDE at Time 1). In line with hypotheses, in both samples, depressogenic weakest links were associated with greater elevations in depressive symptoms following elevations in hassles. At the same time, equally strong support was obtained for the HT when stress was operationalized from a nomothetic perspective and when vulnerability was operationalized as a DIS about causes (but not consequences or self).     

A national anti-doping education programme reduces doping susceptibility in British athletes

The World Anti-Doping Agency’s International Standard for Education instructs that national and international sport organisations evaluate their education programmes. We addressed this directive by examining the effectiveness of a national anti-doping programme. Athletes (N = 302, 41% female) completed measures of doping susceptibility, intention to use dietary supplements, Spirit of Sport and moral values, anti-doping knowledge and practice, and whistleblowing, prior-to and three-months after attending an anti-doping education programme. At three-month follow-up, athletes reported decreased doping susceptibility and intention to use dietary supplements coupled with increased importance of values, anti-doping knowledge, anti-doping practice and whistleblowing. Within-participant, moderated-mediation analyses revealed that programme-related changes in doping susceptibility were indirectly related to changes in intention to use dietary supplements, and, that this indirect relationship was moderated by moral values. These findings confirm the effectiveness of a national anti-doping education programme and highlight the contribution of dietary supplement use and personal values to changes in doping susceptibility.     

A Statistical Hypothesis Testing Method for the Rank Ordering of the Priorities of the Alternatives in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

In analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a ratio scale (π₁, π₂, ⋯, π_t) for the priorities of the alternatives {T₁, T₂, ⋯, T_t} is used for a decision problem in which π_i/π_j is used to quantify the ratio of the priority of T_i to that of T_j. In a group decision‐making setup, the subjective estimates of π_i/π_j are obtained as entries of a pairwise comparison matrix for each member of the group. On the basis of these pairwise comparison matrices, one of the topics of interest in some situation is the total rank ordering of the priorities of the alternatives. In this article, a statistical method is proposed for testing a specific total rank ordering of the priorities of the alternatives. The method developed is then illustrated using numerical examples. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Why Self-enhancement Provokes Dislike: The Hubris Hypothesis and the Aversiveness of Explicit Self-superiority Claims

Most people believe that they are in many respects superior to others. When they publicly express their superiority, they may do so in an explicitly or implicitly comparative manner (“I am better than others” vs. “I am good”). According to the hubris hypothesis, observers dislike explicit self-superiority claims, because these suggest a negative view of others and hence of the observers. The results of two experiments were consistent with the hubris hypothesis. Participants evaluated explicit self-superiority claimants more unfavorably than implicit self-superiority claimants (Experiments 1–2). They attributed less warmth, but not less competence, to explicit than implicit self-superiority claimants (Experiment 2), and this occurred to the extent that participants inferred a negative view of others (Experiments 1–2) and hence of them (Experiment 2).