An evaluation of multi‐criteria methods in integrated assessment of climate policy

Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are aware of the need to explicitly consider multiple criteria and uncertainties when evaluating policies for preventing global warming. MCDM methods are potentially useful for understanding tradeoffs and evaluating risks associated with climate policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the wide range of different techniques that have been proposed, each with distinct advantages. Methods differ in terms of validity, ease of use, and appropriateness to the problem. Alternative methods also can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held in which climate change experts and policy makers evaluated the usefulness of MCDM for IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision. Methods compared include value and utility functions, goal programming, ELECTRE, fuzzy sets, stochastic dominance, min max regret, and several weight selection methods. Ranges, rather than point estimates, were provided for some questions to incorporate imprecision regarding weights. Additionally, several visualization methods for both deterministic and uncertain cases were used and evaluated. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analyses. Hypotheses are examined concerning predictive and convergent validity of methods, existence of splitting bias among experts, perceived ability of methods to aid decision‐making, and whether expressing imprecision can change ranking results. Because participants gained from viewing a problem from several perspectives and results from different methods often significantly differed, it appears worthwhile to apply several MCDM methods to increase user confidence and insight. The participants themselves recommended such multimethod approaches for policymaking. Yet they preferred the freedom of unaided decision‐making most of all, challenging the MCDM community to create transparent methods that permit maximum user control. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用户换位型思维的形成及对机会信念绩效的影响

用户换位型思维是创业者进行机会识别并应对市场竞争的重要因素,但已有研究忽视了其模式、形成机理及对机会信念绩效的影响。针对此问题,基于结构映射理论与注意力参与模型解构用户换位型思维模式,包括吸收式、归纳式、启发式和分析式;然后,从“个体-用户”双元视角探讨与用户有关的先验知识、灵活的角色导向、认知复杂性以及用户需求不确定性和碎片化等因素对用户换位型思维形成的正向影响;最后,以机会信念形成速度和创新性为绩效指标,阐释用户换位型思维模式对机会信念形成绩效的影响,并考察适应新的信息环境和调用自身知识结构的认知管理策略对用户换位型思维模式与机会信念形成绩效的调节作用。研究结论将丰富用户换位型思维的内涵,拓展结构映射理论与注意力参与模型的解释范围,也为指导创业者运用用户换位型思维去识别机会提供参考,对创业者思考与理解用户有重要意义。     

Analog scale,magnitude estimation,and person trade‐off as measures of health utility: biases and their correction

Subjects judged the disutility of health conditions (e.g. blindness) using one of them (e.g. blindness+deafness) as a standard, using three elicitation methods: analog scale (AS, how bad is blindness compared to blindness+deafness?); magnitude estimation (ME, blindness+deafness is how many times as bad as blindness?); and person trade‐off (PTO, how many people cured of blindness is as good as 10 people cured of blindness+deafness?). ME disutilities of the less bad condition were smallest, and AS was highest. Interleaving PTO with ME made PTO more like ME. AS disutilities were inconsistent with direct judgments of differences between pairs of conditions. ME and PTO judgments were internally inconsistent: e.g. the disutility of one‐eye‐blindness relative to blindness+deafness was larger than predicted from comparison of each to blindness. Consistency training reduced inconsistency, increased agreement between AS and PTO, and transferred from one method to the other. The results support the use of consistency checks in utility elicitation. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are absolute frequencies,relative frequencies,or both effective in reducing cognitive biases?

Biases in probabilistic reasoning are affected by alterations in the presentation of judgment tasks. In our experiments, students made likelihood judgments that an event was produced by various causes. These judgments were made in terms of probability, relative frequency or absolute frequency on a full or a pruned list of causes. When they had little personal experience of the event (causes of death), the pruning bias was smaller with relative frequencies than with absolute frequencies or probabilities. When they had more personal experience of the event (missing a lecture), the bias was less with both types of frequency than with probability but still lowest with relative frequency. We suggest that likelihood information is usually stored as relative frequencies when it has been obtained from public sources but that it is based on event counts when it is derived from personal experience. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aggression and conventional rule violation among adolescents: Social-reasoning predictors of social behavior

The goal of the current study was to determine whether aggressive and conventional rule-violating behaviors could be predicted by social-cognitive beliefs and values regarding aggression and conventional rule violations. The extent to which adolescents (N = 398; grades 9 through 12) engaged in both aggressive behavior and conventional school rule violations was assessed using self-ratings and peer nominations. Results indicated that aggressive and conventional rule-violating behaviors were predicted by (1) beliefs about the legitimacy of aggressive and convention-violating behavior; (2) values placed on the expected outcomes of these acts, such as negative self-evaluations, peer disapproval, and tangible rewards; and (3) beliefs about the effects of these acts on others. Furthermore, the results indicated that aggressive and conventional transgressions were predicted better by beliefs and values within the same social-cognitive domain than across domains. In contrast to females, male students committed more aggressive acts and conventional rule violations and reported beliefs and values that were more supportive of aggressive behavior and conventional rule-violating behavior. However, gender differences in beliefs and values were greater for aggressive acts than for conventional acts. The results support the need to distinguish between behavioral domains when attempting to predict social behavior. Aggr. Behav. 24:347–365, 1998. © 1998 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Fourier‐Motzkin elimination method in MOLP problems

This paper introduces a method for finding the non‐dominated set in criterion space of an MOLP problem based on Fourier–Motzkin Elimination. The method incorporates a procedure that eliminates decision variables from constraints and transforms a feasible region from decision space to criterion space. While avoiding characterization of the efficient set in decision space, it finds the non‐dominated set in criterion space. After the decision maker's most preferred criterion vector has been identified, the corresponding efficient solutions can be found by backward substitution. The method was implemented in MATLAB using a tabular form and computational experiments were conducted. The results indicate that although the method performs well for relatively small problems, it can be computationally intensive for larger problems. Nonetheless, the method is intuitively appealing and it provides useful insights into the geometry and theory of MOLP. As such it makes it a valuable educational tool for students of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attribute‐based differentiation of alternatives

An intermediate step is introduced to the dialogue decision process for decision analysis. Alternatives are refined after they have been generated within a strategy table but before they are subject to more detailed evaluation. Two or more judges create a subjective mapping from alternatives to attributes that will later be mapped to criteria. In strategy tables, each of the alternative strategies consists of a coherent set of choices made across several decisions that are to be coordinated. These strategic alternatives are modified so as to increase their differentiation in the attribute space, rather than in the decision space alone. When criteria weights are unknown, the best alternative from the modified set may be superior to the best alternative from the original set. Furthermore, analysis of the resulting alternatives may yield a better mapping of the value response surface for the action space, in the sense that this mapping leads to eventual construction of a higher value alternative. Results are reported for a consulting engagement incorporating the proposed step. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Self‐reported discipline among Swedish parents of preschool children

Swedish mothers and fathers from 200 volunteer families (target child aged 1–6 years) were asked what they would do in five situations which called for either control or discipline. The Parental Discipline Interview (PDI) was scored for 18 possible responses. Both mothers and fathers reported a variety of discipline strategies. Firm Command and Redefine were reported most often, while Threat and Physical Punishment were reported least often. Analysis of Variance (ANOVAs) showed higher frequencies of Reasoning and Ignore and lower frequencies of Redefine for mothers than for fathers. Regression analyses showed that mothers that had less traditional attitudes and young children predicted the preference of Physical Restraint, as well as Distraction. Ignore was predicted for older, less active children of less educated mothers. Fathers having younger, less active daughters predicted the preference of Redefine. Even if parents do not have Physical Punishment at their disposal following the ‘aga‐law’, the results showed that they have not abdicated their parental authority. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

心理痛苦研究述评 ——聚焦5·12汶川大地震受灾群众心理痛苦

心理痛苦是社会认知心理学和灾难心理学的重要概念之一,目前对心理痛苦的研究已经取得一定成果,主要包括心理痛苦的界定;心理痛苦的测量方法;心理痛苦客观存在的证据、心理痛苦与生理疼痛的关系、心理痛苦与自杀的关系。进一步的研究应注重研究方法趋向多元化、建立消除或缓解心理痛苦的干预机制及对心理痛苦的跨文化研究。关注心理痛苦的研究对个体的生存、适应和发展具有重大意义