More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single‐Bound Probability Estimates

Probability estimates can be given as ranges or uncertainty intervals, where often only one of the interval bounds (lower or upper) is specified. For instance, a climate forecast can describe La Niña as having “more than 70% chance” or “less than 90% chance” of occurring. In three experiments, we studied how research participants perceived climate‐related forecasts expressed with lower‐bound (“over X% chance”) or upper‐bound (“under Y% chance”) probability statements. Results indicate that such single‐bound statements give pragmatic information in addition to the numeric probabilities they convey. First, the studies show that these statements are directional, leading the listeners' attention in opposite directions. “Over” statements guide attention towards the possible occurrence of the event and are explained by reasons for why it might happen, while “under” statements direct attention to its possible non‐occurrence and are more often explained by reasons for why the target event might not appear, corresponding to positive (it is possible) versus negative (it is uncertain) verbal probabilities. Second, boundaries were found to reveal the forecaster's beliefs and could be perceived as indicative of an increasing or a decreasing trend. Single‐bound probability estimates are therefore not neutral communications of probability level but might “leak” information about the speaker's expectations and about past and future developments of the forecast. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

得失框架效应的分离—— 来自收益与损失型跨期选择的研究

本研究通过创设收益和损失跨期选择情境, 采用不同表征方式(得框架、失框架)的跨期选择任务, 分别探讨了收益和损失情境下的跨期选择是否存在得失框架效应, 及其是否会受任务难度的影响。结果发现：(1)收益型跨期选择只在任务容易时存在得失框架效应, 与失框架相比, 被试在得框架下选择即时获益的概率更高; 任务困难时得失框架效应消失(实验a); (2)损失型跨期选择中不存在得失框架效应(实验b)。结果表明, 得失框架效应在损、益型跨期选择中出现了分离, 收益型跨期选择中的得失框架效应的内在认知机制很可能与风险决策中的框架效应类似并且是一种较为初级的认知加工过程。     

Effects of regulatory focus on endorsement of religious beliefs

Regulatory focus has an impact on different judgments. Specifically, promotion focus is directed at achieving positive outcome whereas prevention focus is directed at preventing negative outcomes. Thus, people in promotion focus endorse positive outcome-framed messages whereas people in prevention focus endorse negative outcome-framed messages. In two experiments, we examined whether this holds true for religious beliefs. In Experiment 1, participants were undergraduate students; we found the expected interaction between regulatory focus and verse frame. In Experiment 2, we replicated this finding with participants from conservative Lutheran communities, demonstrating that there was a transient influence of induced regulatory focus. This finding suggests that regulatory focus either is difficult to discount or is not a peripheral cue that is used in heuristic processing only, but an internal state that has a pervasive impact even if people are highly motivated to process information systematically.     

Message framing and color priming: How subtle threat cues affect persuasion

Message framing involves the presentation of equivalent decision outcomes in terms of either gains or losses. Loss-framed messages tend to be more persuasive than gain-framed messages when the decision is perceived to involve uncertainty or threat. The current study examined whether the effectiveness of loss-framed information would be enhanced by the presence of a peripheral threat cue - the color red - which was expected to prime threat via its association with blood and danger. In addition to being primed with the color red or gray (control), male participants (n = 126) read either a gain- or loss-framed pamphlet promoting human papillomavirus vaccination. As predicted, vaccination intentions were higher among participants exposed to a loss-framed message than to a gain-framed message, but only when primed with red (not gray). Findings shed light on the interactive effects of message framing and color priming, and demonstrate that peripheral threat cues may affect processing of persuasive health messages.     

Effects of reward magnitude frames on measures of delay discounting in a hypothetical money scenario

The current study analyzed the effects of three frames of reward magnitude—quantity, volume, and duration—on the rate at which college students discounted hypothetical, delayed monetary rewards. Hypothetical scenarios were presented using the fill-in-the-blank discounting questionnaire and participants made choices between immediate and delayed hypothetical monetary rewards. Scenarios framed the monetary choices as (a) quantity of dollar bills, (b) height (inches) of a stack of dollar bills, and (c) duration of time spent in a hypothetical cash machine to collect dollar bills. For each scenario, participants' subjective values were used to calculate the area under the curve (AuC). Framing resulted in a moderate effect size: The duration frame yielded significantly smaller AuC values compared to the quantity and volume frames. Thus, the framing of reward magnitude was a significant variable in controlling discounting rates for hypothetical, delayed monetary rewards. Subsequent investigations should be aware of the independent effects of the reward magnitude frames on delay discounting rates.     

决策的加工过程及个体差异:模糊痕迹理论视角

模糊痕迹理论是行为决策领域的重要解释理论,它认为个体在加工信息时存在字面加工和要义加工两种方式,在决策时个体更倾向于使用要义加工,而且这两种加工存在个体差异。决策的加工模型依据模糊痕迹理论提出,以框架效应和风险知觉为例对该模型进行解释。模糊痕迹理论通过分析加工方式的个体差异来解释决策的个体差异。未来研究应进一步比较模糊痕迹理论与其他理论,完善根据模糊痕迹理论提出的决策加工模型,并深入探索决策的个体差异。     

The Implications of Computer‐Mediated Communication (CMC) for Social Support Message Processing and Outcomes: When and Why Are the Effects of Support Messages Strengthened During CMC?

Widespread use of computer‐mediated communication (CMC) for exchanging social support has raised questions about the support‐related implications of CMC. This study drew from the dual‐process theory of supportive message outcomes and examined the implications of CMC for support message processing and outcomes. We hypothesized that the reduced social cues in CMC would encourage greater elaboration on support message content and lead support messages to have a greater impact than in face‐to‐face interaction. The results of the experiment showed that, although the support message was held constant, participants in the CMC condition reported the strongest motivation to receive support, engaged in the greatest level of message elaboration, and experienced the most beneficial changes in worry and uncertainty discrepancy.     

Matching the graphical display of data to avoidance versus approach motivation increases outcome expectancies

This study is the first demonstration of the effect of motivational focus (approach vs. avoidance) on the interpretation of graphical view of personal data, specifically, weight loss progress. In two experiments, participants were randomly assigned to see the bogus weight loss data charted against either a goal or a baseline reference line. In the first experiment, we accessed participants' chronic motivational focus. In the second study, we primed motivation by exposing the participants to either a gain- or loss-focused health message. The results demonstrate that participants with either chronic or manipulated approach motivation predicted higher future weight loss in the goal reference line condition than in the baseline reference line condition. The opposite pattern was observed for participants with either chronic or manipulated avoidance motivation. The potential of matching graphical data display to personality characteristics to promote effective health management is discussed.     

The media's presentation of human rights during the financial crisis: framing the ‘issues’

As forms of employment and migration changed, the financial crisis which began in 2007 affected the human rights of individuals, particularly those in developing countries. How the media reported on these consequences is essential in understanding how and why public and political perceptions of the importance of human rights may have changed since the crisis began. Using quantitative and qualitative analysis of major newspapers in the UK and the USA, this paper seeks to understand the ways in which the media presented the relationship between the negative changes in the economy and human rights. The analysis of the findings uses framing theory to understand how the text in news articles communicates the relevance of human rights to readers before concluding with some further avenues for research.